Shakeups Planned for Kerry Campaign

[MavKikiNYC]

Kerry Campaign Weighs Shake-Up As Bush Gains Upper Hand in Race
August 31, 2004 2:40 p.m.

As the Bush campaign commands an exquisitely directed convention, the
faltering Kerry campaign might be on the verge of a major shake-up.

Ever since the Boston convention, the Bush campaign has dominated the
agenda, putting the Democratic nominee on the defensive. While polls
still show a close race, everything is tilting in the GOP direction, a
movement that almost surely will be enhanced by a successful New York
convention.

Dispirited Democrats -- prominent senators, top fundraisers, even a few
Kerry confidants -- have told the candidate, who is in Nantucket, that
high-level changes are imperative. A few very well-connected Democrats
report something will occur in the next few days. One person who might
assume more control is Joe Lockhart, a former press secretary to Bill
Clinton and a respected public-relations figure, but one who has almost
no experience in the high-stakes world of presidential campaigns.
Another possibility: veteran Democratic politico John Sasso, currently
at the Democratic National Committee.

If there is a change -- Sen. Kerry privately is said to be "bouncing
off the walls" in frustration -- it has to be imminent as the
eight-week campaign is in full swing by Labor Day. "We have 48 hours,"
acknowledges an insider.

(Tuesday afternoon, the Kerry campaign announced some staff additions.
Mr. Lockhart was named a senior adviser, and Joel Johnson, a former
Clinton administration staffer, was appointed director of rapid
response. But insiders say there might be more moves in the next few
days.)

The Kerry campaign, like most, ultimately reflects the candidate. The
cautious indecisiveness and occasional vacillations have become Kerry
trademarks.

Leading Democrats describe a command structure often frozen -- or at
least tempered -- by too many chefs, a too-heavy reliance on polls or
focus groups and an aversion to risks. As a result, the message often
is muddled and the reaction to hard-hitting attacks from Republicans
often is slow and unconvincing.

This has been most pronounced on national security. The response to the
supposedly independent Swift Boat Veterans attacking Sen. Kerry's war
record has been particularly ineffective. With that and an onslaught of
negative commercials from the Bush campaign, public attitudes about
John Kerry as a commander in chief or leader in a war against terrorism
have eroded in recent weeks.

By contrast, the Republican effort is proceeding almost perfectly
according to plan. The John McCain and Rudy Giuliani defense of
President Bush as a national-security leader -- in comparison to Sen.
Kerry -- was an effective launch, and Tuesday night a mainstream
domestic appeal will be offered by First Lady Laura Bush and California
Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger.

Top Republican operatives have spelled out the political scenario to
key supporters: Mr. Bush will come out of New York with a high
single-digit lead in the polls, maintain about a five-point lead into
the presidential debates, hold his own in those venues, and win a
reasonably convincing re-election. Implicit in this strategy is control
of the dialogue and agenda during the fall campaign, keeping Sen. Kerry
on the defensive and making him as much if not more than President Bush
the issue in voters' minds.

GOP delegates, many of whom were nervous a short few weeks ago, find
this a very credible scenario; they have moved to the cautiously
optimistic level now and seem headed higher.

This wouldn't be the first time the Massachusetts senator has shuffled
his top staff. Late last fall, Mr. Kerry fired campaign manager Jim
Jordan and brought in Mary Beth Cahill, chief of staff for ally Sen.
Ted Kennedy, to revive his floundering campaign.

The Democrats' picture also is strikingly similar to the situation the
party faced the last time it sought to unseat a President Bush. In June
1992, Bill Clinton's campaign was cratering; he was running third in
the polls, behind President Bush and Independent candidate Ross Perot,
the message was muddled, high-level conference calls involved dozens of
campaign chiefs as there were no clear lines of authority. Hillary
Clinton stepped in, tapped James Carville to be in charge of everyone,
and Mr. Clinton went on to win in November.

Democrats, desperate and furious at the Kerry campaign, hope that is a
model. There are, however, several differences. That was June and this
is almost September. And Mr. Carville was a highly skilled, experienced
political operative.

[Dooby]

MavKiki and I read different blogs I guess, but he beat me by three minutes as I was typing.

<u>Kerry on the Brink (Major Campaign Shakeup Possible)</u>

KERRY IS IN CRISIS: Roger L. Simon is right, a shake up by the Kerry camp at this point in the race is tantamount to an admission of crisis. Mickey Kaus is right, too: Joe Lockhart ain't gonna come riding in and save the day.

Meanwhile Charlie Cook decided it was time to walk back his rather bold prediction from three weeks ago that this was Kerry's race to lose: "It really is pretty amazing how fast the conventional wisdom can change." You don't say? Maybe it shouldn't have been conventional wisdom in the first place.

Honestly, I still don't understand how or why Cook and Sabato decided to go out on a limb like that before the GOP convention. It was like two respected Vegas bookies deciding to change the odds of a game at halftime because one team was up a point or two. It just never made sense.

For the record, I'm not convinced the movement to Bush is all the work of the Swiftees, though they've certain played a part. But even if it is, it's not like the damage they've inflicted on Kerry should come as a big surprise to anyone who follows politics closely.

The Swiftees held a press conference way back in early May - even if it did get close to zero attention from the mainstream press. Here's what I wrote about the Swiftees at the time:

As it turns out, the answer to the question is "not effectively at all," which is why the Kerry campaign seems to be teetering on the verge of a meltdown.

Kerry Weighs Campaign Shake Up

rumored shakeup

[Drbio]

If he is smart, he will get Leiberman involved somehow.

[Rhylan]

I've been pretty amazed by the disappearance of Leiberman during this whole election season.