Stein line vince trade and doesn't necessarily preculude a kidd trade.

[jayC]

Saturday, December 18, 2004


By Marc Stein
ESPN.com
Sorry. Just don't like this trade.


For either team.


I only see one winner in the Vince Carter swap besides Vince Carter. That would be Jason Kidd.


It'll take some significant follow-ups for Kidd's New Jersey Nets and/or the Toronto Raptors to convince me that they belong in that column.


Carter wins because he gets a fresh start in a big market and, best of all, the lower expectations of a secondary role (for now). He had clearly become Public Enemy No. 15 in Canada, but the move to Jersey teams Vinsanity with a point guard known for making wing men look good. It's an ideal spot to launch his do-over.


As long as Kidd stays with the Nets, that is. Kidd is the biggest winner here because his possibilities have multiplied. It might actually be easier for Kidd to ultimately force a trade, if that's his wish, because adding Carter makes New Jersey better-positioned to part with Kidd now, even though its initial motivation for making the move was impressing him.


Nets sources indicate Kidd is taking a cautious approach with his new teammate. If Carter arrives and thrives -- as new owner Bruce Ratner's response to the self-described "mistake" of letting Kenyon Martin go -- New Jersey could reclaim its status among the East elite. Which would give Kidd reason to want to stay after his trade-me fury in the wake of the K-Mart deal.


If Kidd and Carter don't click immediately, Kidd can resume his trade push with the knowledge that the Nets could move him now and still have a sellable star on its roster. Carter's popularity in Toronto has clearly eroded, but the decline in his game hasn't affected his fan support domestically, judging by the first batch of results from All-Star balloting. As of Thursday, Carter led East forwards with nearly 700,000 votes, the fourth-highest total in the whole league. Ratner might be more comfortable parting with Kidd (for a point guard and a big man) if he has Carter to put on ticket brochures.


Immediate prospects for the teams themselves aren't quite as promising. New Jersey obviously gave up little of consequence in the exchange -- role players Eric Williams and Aaron Williams and the openly miserable Alonzo Mourning. Yet Ratner's willingness to absorb the four seasons and nearly $60 million left on Carter's contract, with Carter's health in question and his production nowhere close to that price range, only makes the K-Mart dumping more galling. Martin, as a stalwart defender and one of the East's top power forwards, was a far better fit in the Nets' system than Carter. And if Carter can't shake his new Half-Man, Half-A-Season persona, New Jersey just made an expensive mistake.


Besides risking duplication with Carter and Richard Jefferson, New Jersey is also suddenly scrambling to fill out its front line. Sources indicate that the Nets will reach out to free agent Karl Malone, but that's a long shot. ESPN.com reported in November that Malone doesn't want to play anywhere until January (after the holidays) and that, according to agent Dwight Manley: "In all my conversations with Karl, he just didn't have a desire to play in the East." And so Rod Thorn still needs a dependable power player, even after this blockbuster.


Yet you have to like the Nets' end of the trade compared to Toronto's. The Raptors didn't score young talent or any significant cap-flexibility in the deal, settling for role players and two conditional future first-round draft picks that didn't excite folks when New Jersey got them from Denver in the K-Mart transaction. There's a chance one or both of the picks won't even be a lottery pick when the Raptors get them.


So it's tough to understand what the Raptors' rush was. Saving this season? Carter's exile might make the atmosphere more pleasant around rookie coach Sam Mitchell, but even a rally into the playoffs (as a lower East seed) wouldn't be a worthy source of celebration. As low as Carter's value is at present, New York was reportedly offering a package (Penny Hardaway and Tim Thomas) for Carter and Jalen Rose that offered Toronto a savings of some $50 million. That sort of cap relief doesn't guarantee success on the free-agent market -- always a trouble spot for the league's lone Canadian franchise -- but it can provide the flexibility to be more aggressive in subsequent trades.


Maybe the draft picks will pan out into something for the Raptors and first-year general manager Rob Babcock. Maybe they can even get something in a trade for Mourning, who likely won't ever play a game for the Toronto.


All I know is that I'm definitely not optimistic. For anyone but Kidd, frankly.


Marc Stein is the senior NBA writer for ESPN.com. To e-mail him, click here. Also, click here to send a question for possible use on ESPNEWS.