Just a passing thought

[dude1394]

Varifrank is quickly becoming a favorite of mine. He seems to be a student of history and a pragmatist. His latest.

http://varifrank.com/archives/2006/0..._a_passing.php

Just a passing thought...

I spend alot of time thinking about Iran. Because for me, it all started with Iran. Some of us even think it all started long ago, back when they called it "Persia", and we of "the west" were just Greeks.

I had a dream awhile back that I was standing in Athens listening to some half crocked citizen speaking out about why "we greeks really didnt need to fight the persians", that they could be reasoned with if only we would take the time.

And while he talked, a small group of us in the back of the crowd quietly listened, and just as quietly, gathered our tools and sharpened our spears.

In 1979, Iran started the Islamic revolution. They created a state dedicated to the foundation of violent jihad in the world. Where once elaborate rugs had been the Persians most important export, the new Islamic Republic would specialize in another product.

Terror.

Slowly but surely, the Persians have established their own client states in muslim countries with weak dictatorships or rogue nations with no discernable government at all. The Islamic world is rife with prostate nations and subjgated populaces ripe for conversion to the new "Islamic Reich". The offspring of this revolution, Islamic Jihad, Hamas, and yes, even Al-queda became the parasites of faltering islamic states; each organization laying its eggs of hate in the dead flesh of the long dead Ottoman and British empires.

Today, they are hell-bent to get their hands on Atomic weapons and once again there are those who council caution and deference to this deadly sworn enemy of all that western civilization has made in the past 4,000 years. Liberal democracy, Womens rights, free speech, Capitalism, Induvidualism, all stand in stark contrast to what is promised by the Islamic revolution.

It seems to me that we've been here before. It makes you wonder why we never learn. My dad once said "every generation faces its own Nazi Reich", and now we have ours. Only it seems like we've seen these guys before. In Marathon. In Guagamela, and a hundred other battlefields across the ancient world.

But my passing thought is this:

Everyone seems to think they have a handle on how long it will take for the Iranians to create an atomic bomb. People who talk about Iran and the bomb, no matter who they are, speak in terms of some feeling of certainty in predicting "how long it will be".

But here is the only thing I can be certain of. Every single example or our "guessing" about a countries atomic bomb development...

Has always been categorically - Incorrect.

Every.
Single.
Time.

"Hitler is building an Atomic bomb" Everyone knew... that Hitler was making an atomic bomb, Einstein himself worried about it.

Only there was no German bomb and almost no nuclear research by the Nazis. We scoured Europe in 1945 and we found almost nothing. We went ahead with our Atomic program anyway...

"It will take decades for the Soviets to get an Atomic Bomb" - Spoken in 1945.

1949. Boom.

"China does not have the economic capabilty to produce an atomic bomb for atleast another 30 years". - spoken in 1960.

1964. Boom.


"India is too poor to have an active nuclear weapons program" - spoken in 1970.

1974. Boom.

In 1998, they would engage in a game of oneups-manship with their Pakistani neighbors. On May 11th and May 13th 1998, the Indians would explode a series of atomic weapons in an attempt to intimidate their rivals. On May 28th, the Pakistanis would respond by exploding their own nuclear weapon. On May 30th, they would demonstrate that it wasnt an elaborate "parlor trick", by demonstrating that they had more than one.

And for the 20 years prior when the Indians and Pakistanis were spending money, building nuclear facilities, training staff, We never knew what was going on. Billions of dollars were spent in reconnisance satellites and listening posts, millions of dollars and decades spent putting agents and spies into their government and military, and for all of that, we had no idea it was going on until it was all over.

This all occured in two countries that we have diplomatic relationships, trade relationships and a history of somewhat friendly governmental relationships. All of those advantages, and we still had no idea!

Now, why are we so absolutely certain that Iran is "years away" from a bomb? What makes us think our guess this time is any better than all the other guesses? Given our track history with guessing how long it will take, and who is capable of what, should we really wait until the Iranians demonstrate their own bomb? or is "intent of building" as good as actually having, when it comes to making our own plans?

Does anyone think that if given half a chance the Islamic Republic will not use the weapon?

Just a passing thought...