Pretty cool thread at LMF with DLord breaking down some of the mavs rotations

[dude1394]

http://www.websitetoolbox.com/tool/p...21348&trail=45

Here's Dlords synopsis...

Let me butt in to offer some pieces of info for your debate.

1. The world of height measurements and height listings in the NBA is nebulous, hazy, and sometimes skewed for one purpose or another. I'm really hesitant to accept the numbers unless I have spent time talking with the player.

No reporter gets out the tape measure on them. But I've been around enough guys I played with and against, plus being in the locker rooms talking to guys face to face, to get a pretty good feel on player heights, at least up to a certain point. I'm a shade under 6-3 and its easy to tell who I talk to eye to eye, and so on.

Stackhouse - If I was betting money I'd say he is 6-4 1/2 or 6-4 3/4. (No way he is taller than 6-5 flat.)
Howard - I'd put him at about 6-7. No less than 6-6 1/2.

2. The Mavericks system under Nellie blurred the distinction between SF and SG into 2 essentially interchangeable "swing men." Avery's sytem - unlike many teams in the NBA who have mirrored Nellie's approach - does not. Avery has a SF who prototypically does certain things and a SG who has distinctly different responsibilities.

That was why, as someone said above, Stackhouse felt he was used in a less than optimal position (for his size and skill set) this year. Because the team was lacking in SF's, Stack was often used to fill in there as Josh's backup, as well as to get more minutes, even though in Avery's system he really should have only been playing SG. A 6-4 1/2 SF is at a major size disadvantage in today's NBA, Stack was very aware of that fact, and obviously would much prefer not to have to do so next season.

Correspondingly, that's one of the reasons that Greg Buckner was brought in to replace Adrian Griffin. Griffin was used regularly at SG, and while he made a contribution, he really didn't have the right skills for the job. Buckner does. So Buckner was hired to play SG, and Griffin was asked to return at backup SF (which will be manned instead by George since Griffin chose to go elsewhere).

The (now) erroneous concept that there are 2 essentially interchangeable swing players on floor for the Mavs (SF and SG) has continued to be mentioned as a supposed "fact" by writers and fans to this day, but it is now woefully inaccurate and out of date.

3. Avery's sytem actually does often blend two positions together, but it is the PG/SG who are blended into what they call a "combo guard" concept. With their combo guards, either may be the ball-handler and/or the shooter, depending on the play that's called and who the other guard is. They are one of the few teams in the NBA that are intentionally using this concept, which is why players like Mike James and Anthony Johnson might be more desirable here than elsewhere in more traditional PG/SG lineups that have a more distinct line between "ballhandler" and "shooter," and it is why a player like JET can thrive here as a PG even though he doesn't fit the "traditional PG" mental image that most fans embrace.

It's not a new concept by any means, however. It was used by the Celts of the 80s (Ainge, DJ), Detroit (Thomas, Dumars), and even Chicago (MJ, whoever) to win titles.

4. How the Mavs players being dicussed here were used in the playoffs:

Howard - SF
Stackhouse - SF/SG about evenly split (even though he played both positions about equal minutes - in large part to get him on the floor more - he is a prototypical SG in the Avery system)
Griffin - SG/SF, much more time at SG than SF
Daniels - combo G (had the size to play SF but wasnt used there because his skills didnt work there)
Terry - PG, combo G about evenly split
Harris - PG, combo G, much more time at PG
Armstrong - PG

5. How I'd expect next year's roster to be used when all are healthy
Howard - SF
George - SF
Buckner - SG
Ager - SG, combo G (primarily SG)
Stackhouse - SG/SF, almost all at SG
Terry - PG, combo G about evenly split
Harris - PG, combo G, much more time at PG
Johnson - PG, combo G, much more time at PG

If things work like they hope, in 2006-07 the only time SF minutes go to Buckner, Stackhouse, or Ager with a healthy roster will be when Avery feels he needs to try to sneak one of them a few extra minutes on the floor. Or if he is playing some trick-it-up 3 guard small ball.

[jthig32]

Well, if what he says about Stackhouse is true, then that almost eliminates Terry playing the 2 guard at all, would it not?

If the guards are Stack, Buck, Ager, Terry, Devin, AJ, then I would say Ager is not playing at all, and either Buck or AJ is getting very few regular minutes. They can't split 5 players regularly at those two spots, can they?

[AxdemxO]

Hhaha that stuff about Stack playin sg...could be a sign that i was rite about the starting line up too....theres a pattern goin on here.

[grndmstr_c]

Stack's always been more of a shooting guard than a small forward. It's old news that he prefers not to play the bigger position. And it's not a sign that you're right about him starting. If anything, the opposite is true, since last year Avery went with a guy who's as much of a true SG as Stack is a true SF (Griff) over Stack as starter and this year the Mavs have a true SG in Buck available to fill the starting slot.

[nashtymavsfan13]

Originally Posted by AxdemxO

Hhaha that stuff about Stack playin sg...could be a sign that i was rite about the starting line up too....theres a pattern goin on here.

It doesn't prove anything, all it is saying is that Stack is going to be playing his minutes at SG.

[kriD]

Originally Posted by AxdemxO

Hhaha that stuff about Stack playin sg...could be a sign that i was rite about the starting line up too....theres a pattern goin on here.

Like gmc said, if it does prove anything, it's that you're pretty much wrong about everything. Here's what DLord says about the starting lineup and playing time:

Don't wager any money on this, but barring any unexpected injuries, here is what I would GUESS we see in game 1. Note that my opinion is based on two factors - I believe Avery is a serious believer in continuity, and the game has crucial potential tie-breaker importance later on.

Starters (mins)

PG - Harris (33)
SG - Terry (33)
SF - Howard (40)
PF - Nowitzki (40)
C - Diop (20)

bench - Dampier (28)
bench - Croshere (16)
bench - Stackhouse (much fewer reg season minutes this year) (15)
5 minutes or less - George, Johnson, Buckner

Wont play - Ager, Mbenga, Pops, the other guy

Longer-term SG issues

1. I dont think Ager will be a factor to start this season. I hope he can gradually contribute more and more, but I dont see him as a potential starter at any point this year.

2. I think the SG starting lineup race all year will be actually be between different possible guard packages

a. PG Harris SG Terry
b. PG Terry SG Buckner

It wont be purely a contest between Harris and Buckner, however, because it will also include an evaluation of how Terry fits (both offensively and defensively) at either position. But I think PG will be Harris' job to lose, and if he takes another step forward in his mid-range game and stays healthy I think he cant be unseated, meaning JET starts at the 2 all year.

3. Injuries will happen at some point, and the role and minute possibilities will get changed as a result.

[nashtymavsfan13]

Ha, so I was right Ax. The two guard packages DLord thinks we'll see are the two I brought up, Terry/Buck or Harris/Terry. He also says Stack will only get 15 min., that's a lot less than starter's minutes or a 6th man

[aexchange]

Originally Posted by AxdemxO

Hhaha that stuff about Stack playin sg...could be a sign that i was rite about the starting line up too....theres a pattern goin on here.

your written english is atrocious.

[DevinHarriswillstart]

Come to think of it, if Harris doesn't start, it could be also because Terry is unfit to play the 2 permanently. This is a tiresome debate about the starting backcourt though, I admit. After watching those games against the Spurs though, how could one not think how great our starting team would be

Harris
Terry
Howard
Dirk
Diop

Let that soak in, because even without a bench, that line-up is incredible and versatile in every way except for low-post scoring. I believe Terry can keep most 2 guards in front of him too or wear them out as he burns them on offense creating foul trouble.

We are so spoiled to even have Terry and Harris, two guards that could start for 20+ teams imo.

[purplefrog]

Perhaps I am looking at this wrong, but DLord's pt allocation might be a little off. When I look at pt from last year's team this is what I see:

05-06 season
Terry 35 minutes per game
Harris 22.8
Armstrong 10
Griffin 23.9
Howard 32.5
Marquis 28.5
Stackhouse 27.7
Dirk 38
Damp 23.6
Diop 18.6
Van Horn 20

If Terry, Howard, Dirk, Damp, and Diop get similar minutes to last year, it seems the worst case scenario is that Devin inherits some of Stacks or Marquis' pt (those are minutes for Terry at the 2), Buck gets Griff minutes, AJ will get Armstrong minutes (10) at the minimum, and George gets whatever is left. Van Horn averaged 20 minutes per game and that seems like more than enough for Croshere. I realize that injuries played a big part in last year's distribution of pt, but who is to say that a similar thing won't happen next season. I really don't think minutes is an issue (other than Stack might be down to 18-20 minutes). Is my reasoning screwed up??

[nashtymavsfan13]

Stack's minutes will be down while AJ's will be more than DA's and Harris will get more PT than last year. Buck will get less than Griff and those will go to George.

[purplefrog]

Seems reasonable to me, Nashty. One thing about DLord's allocation is that Howard gets 40 minutes per game. I hope we don't use him that much during the regular season just because it is likely to wear him down for the playoffs. We have a great great bench, we should use it. Even Dirk with 40 minutes per game (according to DLord) is a bit much imo.

[grndmstr_c]

purple, notice Lord's only talking about game 1 (against SA, if memory serves). I tend to disagree with him about Croshere's minutes being so high, excepting that he sees some time at the 5; Lord's got him playing 8 minutes at SF, which seems unlikely to me.

[purplefrog]

Thanks gmc. I didn't scroll down far enought to pick that up. Now those minutes make a bit more sense.

[G-Man]

While Avery has spoken often of playing a system, implying a set rotation, I think the way he used players in the playoffs suggests he will play more Nellie styled match ups this year. He may prefer starting Devin and Terry, I don't think he'll hesitate to go with more defensive players when they have to match up against the super guards like Kobe and DWade.

I don't think they went out and added guards Buckner and Johnson to sit them, but I don't think they will be allowed to take so many minutes they stunt Devin's growth. I hope they plan to start DH and Jet whenever possible. But realizing 2 guards that short can be a defensive liability, they got 2 more who can play D, and will use them and maybe start them whenever it makes sense.

When AJ played in SA, they stuck with a set lineup, because they won with it, and they didn't have the players to do otherwise. But in today's NBA, flexibility is more important. Why wait until the playoffs to start changing the substitution pattern. It makes more sense to get used to using different guys for different situations. I think the reason they changed the backup guards is so now, is they decide to go defensive against, say, Kobe, they can put in both Johnson and Buck , so even if the Lakers force a switch, he'll have to face a solid defender, but the Mavs will still have decent offense on the floor.

I predict a season of fluidity among the guards. The coaches say they like all the guards because they do, and they will all have their roles. Need instant offense? Put in Stack. But he sucks on D, so against the Lakers, he may never see the floor. I hope they use the entire season to find the best ways to use all their players.

Teams traditionally shorten their rotations in playoffs because their 1st 7 or 8 players are much better than the rest. What the Mavs showed this year is that situations change. They brought in Devin, a non starter, against SA, and the Spurs took 4 games to figure out a response. The Mavs benched their best center against the Suns and won. I hope by next years playoffs, they have used MBenga enough that he'll be ready to body up against Amare.

They don't have too many guards, they have a nice selection, and need to use them all when they fit. If they do, they are a much better team than last year. Last year, they couldn't use DA much, because he wasn't good enough. Now our 3rd point guard is very good and has skills the other 2 don't. If AJ doesn't use him when he can help, he's nuts. No other team can match the Mavs depth. Lets see it all season and into the playoffs, and bury whoever we meet.

[nashtymavsfan13]

Great post G-man.

[kriD]

I think the regular season minutes will look about like this:

Rotation 1:

Harris (28) / AJ (14) / Terry (6)
Terry (26) / Buckner (12) / Stack (10)
Howard (32) / Stack (10) / George (6)
Dirk (36) / Cro (12)
Diop (20) / Dampier (22) / M'Benga (6)

Rotation 2:

Terry (18) / Harris (22) / AJ (8)
Buckner (18) / Stack (16) / Terry (14)
Howard (32) / George (10) / Stack (6)
Dirk (36) / Cro (12)
Diop (20) / Damp (22) / M'Benga (6)

[dalmations202]

Originally Posted by kriD

I think the regular season minutes will look about like this:

Rotation 1:

Harris (28) / AJ (14) / Terry (6)
Terry (26) / Buckner (12) / Stack (10)
Howard (32) / Stack (10) / George (6)
Dirk (36) / Cro (12)
Diop (20) / Dampier (22) / M'Benga (6)

Rotation 2:

Terry (18) / Harris (22) / AJ (8)
Buckner (18) / Stack (16) / Terry (14)
Howard (32) / George (10) / Stack (6)
Dirk (36) / Cro (12)
Diop (20) / Damp (22) / M'Benga (6)

Rotation number two is exactly what I am expecting, except AJ will get about 4 more taking 2 each from Stack and Bucknor.