MLB 2006 Awards by Jeff Passan

[nashtymavsfan13]

Taking a mulligan on awards

By Jeff Passan, Yahoo! Sports
September 28, 2006


Before the season, I compared making predictions to a pink shirt. Allow me to amend that.

Making predictions is like golf: I stink at it, and so does just about everyone else.

Of my choices for the six major awards – American League and National League MVP, Cy Young and Rookie of the Year – I nailed only two from the preseason and at the midseason reset.

And this is not to mention the preseason pick of the Atlanta Braves over the Chicago White Sox in the World Series, or the midseason pick of Chicago over the New York Mets, or the complete omission of the New York Yankees, who head into the postseason as the prohibitive favorite.

Frankly, it's a lot easier choosing when the season is almost done, the numbers nearly tabulated and the standings fairly straightforward. Though as the first award shows, those choices aren't always that easy.

• AL MVP: Derek Jeter, SS, New York Yankees

When confronted with a difficult choice between position players, I like to take into consideration a handful of aspects: the traditional numbers, the sabermetric numbers, situational hitting, demand of position, clubhouse leadership and team success. In the first category, Boston Red Sox designated hitter David Ortiz trumps Jeter by 40 home runs and 41 RBI, though Jeter bests him in runs, doubles, triples and, particularly, stolen bases (32 to one). In advanced statistical metrics, Jeter beats Ortiz in both value over replacement player (75.8 to 74.7) and Win Shares (31 to 27). For his sheer dramatics, Ortiz gets the nod for clutch hitting, though Jeter is no slouch, hitting .384 with runners in scoring position. Jeter earns points for playing a position, while Ortiz rests on the bench between innings. Their presence is a wash; both are their teams' lifeblood. So with everything else almost dead even, it comes down, as the MVP award should in all but rare instances, to team success. The Yankees are going to the playoffs. The Red Sox aren't. Case closed.

1) Jeter
2) Ortiz
3) Johan Santana
4) Justin Morneau
5) Jermaine Dye
6) Travis Hafner
7) Frank Thomas
8) Joe Mauer
9) Vladimir Guerrero
10) Johnny Damon

Preseason: Ortiz
Midseason: Ortiz

• NL MVP: Albert Pujols, 1B, St. Louis Cardinals

Again, we'll start with the numbers. While Ryan Howard has 11 more home runs and 13 more RBI than Pujols, his batting average and on-base percentage don't stack up, and their slugging percentage – the greatest indicator of power – is within one thousandth of a point. Pujols, despite spending two weeks on the disabled list, has a higher VORP (84.0 to 80.9) and more Win Shares (36 to 29). Pujols' situational numbers absolutely crush Howard's: 1.298 on-base-plus-slugging to .935 with runners in scoring position, 1.187 to 1.038 in close-and-late situations, and so on. Both play first base, though Pujols does it much better. Neither is a particularly big voice for the team, though Pujols' is bigger, probably because he's been around longer. And to add one more criterion in this case: support. As in, Howard has Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins, and Pujols does all the heavy lifting himself.

1) Pujols
2) Howard
3) Lance Berkman
4) Miguel Cabrera
5) Jose Reyes
6) Carlos Beltran
7) Matt Holliday
8) Alfonso Soriano
9) Utley
10) Brian McCann

Preseason: Pujols
Midseason: Pujols

• AL Cy Young: Johan Santana, SP, Minnesota Twins

What I don't understand about preseason picks is why anyone would pick against Santana. He is clearly the best pitcher in baseball. There is no need to rattle off his second-half numbers over the last three years, because at this point they've been talked about so much people believe they're real, even though they don't look it. Instead, here are four others: 233 2/3, 245, 19 and 2.77. Those are Santana's innings pitched, strikeouts, victories and earned-run average, and if he finishes the season leading the league in all four – which he currently does – he'll become the AL's first pitcher since Hal Newhouser in 1945 to win pitching's equivalent of the quadruple crown.

1) Santana
2) Roy Halladay
3) Joe Nathan

Preseason: Santana
Midseason: Santana

• NL Cy Young: Chris Carpenter, SP, St. Louis

Now, this would change if the Cardinals do gag away the NL Central. Carpenter and Brandon Webb have put up numbers that run practically even. Webb has one more win and an ERA less than a quarter of a run better. Carpenter has more strikeouts, less walks and less hits per inning. Webb's VORP and Win Shares are a tad higher. But Carpenter has been the Cardinals' only reliable starter the entire season, and for a team that's on the precipice of losing its playoff spot, every one of those starts was a necessity.

1) Carpenter
2) Webb
3) Trevor Hoffman

Preseason: Roy Oswalt
Midseason: Webb

• AL Rookie of the Year: Justin Verlander, SP, Detroit Tigers

Survival of the fittest more than anything. Verlander lasted the season and is going to the playoffs. Jonathan Papelbon's shoulder couldn't hold up, nor could Francisco Liriano's elbow. Which is a pity, really, because had the three stayed healthy, it would have made for some kind of spirited race. As it stands, now the AL has three tremendous pitchers – along with Jered Weaver, in a close fourth place behind Liriano – to help usher in the future.

1) Verlander
2) Papelbon
3) Liriano

Preseason: Liriano
Midseason: Liriano

• NL Rookie of the Year: Hanley Ramirez, SS, Florida Marlins

Next to AL MVP, this was the toughest call. Because as of 10 days ago, Ramirez's keystone partner, Dan Uggla, was the frontrunner. Since then, Uggla has gone 5 for 41 with no RBI and 10 strikeouts, and though it doesn't diminish his rookie record 26 home runs for a second baseman, it does kill his candidacy. And while Washington third baseman Ryan Zimmerman's 20 home runs and 109 RBI are impressive, one thing stood out: Ramirez, a leadoff hitter, has a slugging percentage equal to Zimmerman's. Tack on his playing a more demanding position – though Zimmerman does field his better – to the 51 stolen bases, 118 runs, 17 home runs and resurgence since a midseason slump, and Ramirez, though a difficult choice, is the right one.

1) Ramirez
2) Zimmerman
3) Uggla

Preseason: Jeremy Hermida
Midseason: Zimmerman

• AL Manager of the Year: Ron Gardenhire, Minnesota

• NL Manager of the Year: Joe Girardi, Florida

• AL Comeback Player of the Year: Frank Thomas, Oakland Athletics

• NL Comeback Player of the Year: Nomar Garciaparra, Los Angeles Dodgers

• AL Gold Gloves

1B: Mark Teixeira
2B: Mark Grudzielanek
SS: Michael Young
3B: Joe Crede
OF: Alex Rios
OF: Grady Sizemore
OF: Gary Matthews Jr.
C: Joe Mauer
P: Jake Westbrook

• NL Gold Gloves

1B: Albert Pujols
2B: Jamey Carroll
SS: Adam Everett
3B: Scott Rolen
OF: Andruw Jones
OF: Carlos Beltran
OF: Jason Bay
C: Yadier Molina
P: Greg Maddux

And, just for fun, some miscellaneous awards that we don't think Major League Baseball will be handing out anytime soon.

• The Screech Powers Award (for taking a dump in September): Chicago starter Mark Buehrle, who, in five starts this month, put up a 6.67 ERA, gave up 46 hits (the second most in baseball) and struck out just 13.

• The Mark Prior/Kerry Wood Award (for excellence in injury): Oakland shortstop Bobby Crosby, who, for the second consecutive season, missed a significant portion of the season. His doctor saw a strained shoulder, bruised finger, sore triceps, bruised hand and stiff back this season after treating bruised ribs, a sore hand, upper back pain, a fractured rib, a strained quadriceps and a broken ankle last year.

• The Mark Fidrych Award (for grandest imagination): Cincinnati utilityman Ryan Freel, who claims to communicate with Farney, "a little guy who lives in my head who talks to me and I talk to him."

• The Jack Kevorkian Award (for mercy killing): ESPN, which canceled "Bonds on Bonds."

• The I'll Have My Cake, Eat It and Wouldn't Dare Share It Award (for idiocy): Kansas City starter Odalis Perez, who, when with the Dodgers, was yanked from the rotation, then stopped giving away the 45 tickets he had earmarked for local inner-city children.

• The Anthony Young Award (for futility in pitching): Cleveland reliever Fausto Carmona, who, after being installed as the Indians' closer, lost four games within a week's span between July and August.

• The George Burns Award (for unexpected longevity): Chicago Cubs manager Dusty Baker, who would have suffered far less stress had the Cubs whacked him a few months ago instead of later this week.

• The Mr. T Award (for general badassery): Toronto manager John Gibbons, who first sent Shea Hillenbrand packing for insubordination, then picked a fight with starter Ted Lilly after he whined for getting yanked from a game.

• The Didn't Mom Tell You Not to Play With Machetes! Award (for, um, insanity?): Reliever Ugueth Urbina, who, as of the last report on him in May, remained in a Venezuelan jail for allegedly attacking ranch hands with lighter fluid and a machete.

• The Banished to the Couch Award (for spousal indiscretion): Baltimore outfielder Jay Gibbons, whose foul ball earlier this week smacked his wife in the ribcage.

[ocelot_ark]

Nice props for Tex, MY, and GMJ.

[Five-ofan]

I love Mike but he doesnt need a gold glove, its extremely nice to see him even mentioned for it after all the fielding bible stuff last year. However i would discount anyones opinion who believes that defense can be fully shown through stats.

[nashtymavsfan13]

The thing I'm wonderign about is why Jeter is his AL MVP. Santana and Ortiz would be better choices imho.

[some-dude]

Originally Posted by nashtymavsfan13

The thing I'm wonderign about is why Jeter is his AL MVP. Santana and Ortiz would be better choices imho.

Jeter is the clear cut AL MVP.

He is the captain of the World Series favorite Yankees. He has been their only reliable hitter in the lineup the whole season. Oh, and not to mention he's batting .340, second in the AL in runs with 115, has 32 SB, gonna end up with 100 RBI's from the 2 spot, and he can always be counted on to do the small things to lead the Yankees to wins.

People are so used to seeing a player with 45+ Hr and 130+ RBI win MVP, but this year, Jeter truly deserves the MVP and I think he'll get it even though the power numbers arent like Thomas, Morneau, or Ortiz.

[purplefrog]

I know starting pitchers are not popular picks for MVP, but those are amazing numbers Santana is putting up this year. Leading the AL (majors??) in ERA, strikeouts, and tied for most wins. Wow! That is an incredible season and worthy of the MVP. Besides he doesn't play for the Yankees!

[nashtymavsfan13]

Originally Posted by some-dude

Jeter is the clear cut AL MVP.

He is the captain of the World Series favorite Yankees. He has been their only reliable hitter in the lineup the whole season. Oh, and not to mention he's batting .340, second in the AL in runs with 115, has 32 SB, gonna end up with 100 RBI's from the 2 spot, and he can always be counted on to do the small things to lead the Yankees to wins.

People are so used to seeing a player with 45+ Hr and 130+ RBI win MVP, but this year, Jeter truly deserves the MVP and I think he'll get it even though the power numbers arent like Thomas, Morneau, or Ortiz.

I guess, but only 14 homers? The runs and the BA are impressive, but that's all I see. Then why isn't Reyes the MVP of the National League? He's had as good a year as Jeter...

[some-dude]

Originally Posted by purplefrog

I know starting pitchers are not popular picks for MVP, but those are amazing numbers Santana is putting up this year. Leading the AL (majors??) in ERA, strikeouts, and tied for most wins. Wow! That is an incredible season and worthy of the MVP. Besides he doesn't play for the Yankees!

Pitchers MVP award = Cy Young.

I just dont buy into the fact that a player who goes out on the field for his team every 5th day is worthy of being Most Valuable Player....even if the pitcher is as good as Santana.

[nashtymavsfan13]

Originally Posted by some-dude

Pitchers MVP award = Cy Young.

I just dont buy into the fact that a player who goes out on the field for his team every 5th day is worthy of being Most Valuable Player....even if the pitcher is as good as Santana.

I agree. Well said.

[some-dude]

Originally Posted by nashtymavsfan13

I guess, but only 14 homers? The runs and the BA are impressive, but that's all I see. Then why isn't Reyes the MVP of the National League? He's had as good a year as Jeter...

Jeter is way more that just stats. What he brings to the Yankees is more than what any other player brings to any other team except maybe Pujols. The reason Reyes isn't MVP is because 1.) The Mets have two other qualitiy MVP candidates that have been just as important to their success, and 2.) Pujols and Howard have just put up enourmous number and as good as Reyes has been this year, not enough for MVP.

[purplefrog]

I know the conventional wisdom says that starting pitchers are not league MVPs. And I can resonate with the idea that they do not play every day, and that the Cy Young award is the special recognition given to pitchers. But, the fact is that Santana will likely acheive something special this year, something that has not been done since 1945 (according to Passan). When an athlete acheives something like that, then I think you depart from the conventional wisdom and recognize the extraordinary accomplishment. Jeter has MVP numbers, but he has not really accomplished something this season that will put his name in the record books. Great year for Jeter, but I think Santana deserves both the Cy Young and MVP. But then again, I have been a Twins fan for a long time, so I guess I am a little biased!

[Five-ofan]

The mvp should come from the twins but it shouldnt be Santana. The MVP of the AL this year is Joe Mauer and its really not that close. He will be i believe the first AL catcher to win the batting title. He is 3rd in OBP and 9th in OPS. That coupled with the positional value of Catcher make him pretty clearly the mvp and he should clearly be higher than jeter. Im sorry but if a catcher has a higher OBP, Slugging and OPS than you, You are clearly not the mvp. Mauer is beating DJ in all of those categories btw.


As for jeter, are you effing kidding me using the lineup around him as justification for picking him??? Yes hes been up and down but arods had a better year than he has batting as has Giambi as has Abreu though he hasnt been there that long. Look if you want to argue for DJ based on his "intangibles" or his BA thats fine but please dont be stupid enough to use the lineup around a guy hitting in one of the best lineups of the last 30 or so years as justification for picking him.

[Five-ofan]

By the way, this doesnt apply to the mvp this season but its just something to think about and why you just cant go by the prevailing opinions.

A-Rod's career postseason numbers: .305 BA/.393 OBP/.534 Slg.; Derek Jeter's career postseason numbers: .307/.379/.463.)

Nice food for thought.

[Murphy3]

Morneau is more deserving in my opinion. Jeter will win it because he's a Yankee and all Yankee fans and East coast media like to sock on his cock whenever possible.

[Five-ofan]

Morneau isnt even the mvp of his own team. Mauer is and should be the mvp of the AL.