Mavs' odds to win the 2006 NBA championship

[chumdawg]

Figured I would make a thread to track the opinions of the betting public on our little Mavs. Oddschecker.com gives you a good look at several different sporting books. It's euro-centric, but I find the odds to be pretty accurate (and the American books are too slow to update on futures).

So here's a look on January 11:

Spurs - anywhere from 3/2 to 2/1
Pistons - 5/2 to 3/1

Heat - 5/1 to 6/1

Suns - 12/1

Mavs - about 14/1...as low as 10/1 at Ladbrooks, but as high as 25/1 at VC Bet. 12/1 and 16/1 are the most common lines

Pacers - about 18/1...ranges from 16/1 to 20/1

Cavs - 25/1

The Mavs have finally distanced themselves from the Cavs, and are starting to edge away from the Pacers. Early in the year the Pacers were favored a little ahead of the Mavs and Cavs, who were regarded similarly.

From here you could shop for a better price on a lot of these teams if you were interested, but SportingOdds seems to have the most accurate lines, and has them as follows:

Nets - 28/1
Nuggets - 33/1

Wolves, Rockets, Clippers - 40/1

Grizz, Sixers, Lakers - 50/1

Warriors - 66/1
Kings - 75/1
Wizards, Bucks - 80/1

Sonics, Celtics - 100/1

The odds are shortening presently on the Mavs and the Nuggets, and to a lesser extent the Suns. They are drifting on the Heat and Cavs.

To win the WCF:

Spurs - 2/3 (Bet $3 to win $2)
Mavs - 6.5/1
Suns - 7/1

I predict that the Mavs will eventually overtake the Suns in favoritism, and land somewhere around 5/1 or 6/1 by the time the playoffs start.

[bobatundi]

Odd that the Mavs are considered a better bet to win the WCF than the Suns, but a worse bet to win the championship. Seems like every year, the team that wins the WCF goes to the NBA finals...strange how that works.

[u2sarajevo]

Call me stupid, but I have no idea what that means 12/1, 10/1, 3/2, etc......

[rakesh.s]

stupid..

12:1 => if your team wins, you get $12 for every $1 you put in...i think

[chumdawg]

Yes, that's what it means. For example, if you bet $100 at 12-to-1, you would get $1300 back if you win (your initial $100 back plus your $1200 in winnings). If you lose, you get nothing.

I'm thinking about popping some dough down at 25/1 on the little Mavs. Not sure if that site takes bets from American customers, though. I think I need to see a little more before I decide that 12-to-1 or even 14-to-1 is good enough.

[Folterkammer]

if amare comes back and plays well the suns will have something around 9/1 to 5/1

[digit]

I already have a small sum on the Mavs to win it all at 17/1. I will probably take the Suns as well. Although the public sense differently I think this year's winner comes out of the West. And I don't think it will be the Spurs. I would never jump on them with the current odds that low.

As the season progresses I will add some more on the Mavs. The public doesn't like the Mavs to go all the way...I do...although they did cost me some money, yesterday...Utah, Toronto and Minny did take care of business, the Mavs unfortunately didn't...ouch...



Transaktions-Referenznummer : STH5425394815116II

Tipps Uhrzeit: 11/01/2006 21:07:19
Datum der Veranstaltung Veranstaltung Tipps Quoten Sieg/Platz-Bedingungen Ergebnis
1 12/01/2006 UTA Jazz @ PHI 76ers
(Handicap) UTA Jazz +6.5
1.71 Keine Gewonnen
2 12/01/2006 CHA Bobcats @ TOR Raptors
(Handicap) TOR Raptors -4.0
1.41 Keine Gewonnen
3 12/01/2006 DAL Mavericks @ NY Knicks
(Handicap) DAL Mavericks -3.0
1.66 Keine Verloren
4 12/01/2006 CHI Bulls @ MIN TWolves
(Sieg) MIN TWolves
1.47 Keine Gewonnen
Mehrfachwetten
Wettart Anzahl der Wetten Grundeinsatz Wetteinsatz möglicher Gewinn Gewinn
4er-Kombiwetten 1 42.05 42.05 209.20
Gesamteinsatz: 42.05 Gesamtgewinn: 0.00

[chumdawg]

Digit, I was hoping you would chime in on this thread. What do you think about a "saver" bet on the Spurs? I mean, something like $200 on the Mavs to win it all and $100 on the Spurs to save it. Or $100 each on the Mavs and Suns, and $200 on the Spurs to save it. Or do you think I should take a stand?

How much does Detroit worry you? I want to say that they don't worry me at all, in which case I want to take the overlay (especially now that the Pistons are off to such a strong start) by laying off some bets on Dallas, San Antonio, and Phoenix.

[digit]

Originally Posted by chumdawg

Digit, I was hoping you would chime in on this thread. What do you think about a "saver" bet on the Spurs? I mean, something like $200 on the Mavs to win it all and $100 on the Spurs to save it. Or $100 each on the Mavs and Suns, and $200 on the Spurs to save it. Or do you think I should take a stand?

How much does Detroit worry you? I want to say that they don't worry me at all, in which case I want to take the overlay (especially now that the Pistons are off to such a strong start) by laying off some bets on Dallas, San Antonio, and Phoenix.

You need to look at the odds and try to figure out if you can get some sort of value. Honestly, I don't see the value in picking the public darlings Pistons and the Spurs. Maybe the Mavs are still a notch behind these two, but the price suggests the Mavs are the clear-cut underdog, which isn't by no means the case. Mavs are right there in the contenders department. Unfortunately, sometimes the Mavs tend to fade away against lesser competition (e.g. Golden State, NY...). So the public wrongly believes that the Mavs can't get it done in general. But if you look at the games against the contenders group (Detroit, SA, Phoenix, Miami) you will get a different picture.

Detroit is a very good TEAM, but IMO they are bit overrated at this point. Still the #1 pick to go all the way (but not at that price). The Spurs didn't impress me much so far , although I will pick them tonight against the Pistons. The Spurs were embarrassed on the Pistons turf. Not tonight.

Phoenix is still some sort of a sleeper. Noone knows how good they really could become, if Amare returns. Phoenix is already playing at a high-level. Mix that with a healthy and rested Stoudamire..scary thought.

My main pick will be the Mavs, emotionally and financially. My 2nd horse will be the Suns. I really like their game and their outlook.

[chumdawg]

With the talk about betting on tonight's Spurs game, I figured I would update this thread. Current odds:

Det ~1.8/1
SAS ~2.5/1
Dal ~7/1
Phx ~8/1
Mia ~8/1

You should be able to get at least 50/1 on everyone else.

[sixeightmkw]

i would definately be down on some 25/1 odds. $100, wow. that would rock.

[TXSportsFan4]

I think we have a great shot. The Pistions are most likely going to be the Eastern Confrence champs and they are definitly beatable if we play great defense and don't let them have easy rebounds.

[chumdawg]

This is pretty incredible. It's the first time I think I have ever seen this. The Mavs are now the betting favorite in the West.

As for this particular series, the odds opened at SAS -220, DAL +180--which means you would bet 220 to win 100 on the Spurs or bet 100 to win 180 on the Mavs.

The current odds are DAL -140 and SAS +120. You now have to bet 140 to win 100 on Dallas.

And the odds to win the NBA Finals?

DET 5/7 (bet 7 to win 5)
DAL 9/2 (4.5 to 1)
SAS 19/4 (almost 5 to 1)
MIA 12/1
PHX 22/1
NJN 22/1
LAC 25/1
CLE 100/1

Pretty amazing.

Also, tonight's prop bet is Dirk's points -5.5 against Duncan's points.

[mary]

The gamblers like us. The gamblers really, really, like us.

[mary]

[EricaLubarsky]

6-1? hilarious

[mary]

[EricaLubarsky]

weren't we like 50-1 at the beginning of the year?

[chumdawg]

I think we started the season at about 22 to 1. Maybe as high as 25 in some places.

I hate to say it, but 5-14 to win the conference looks like bad value to me. I do think they will win it, but I'd want a better payout than that.

If you're just looking for value, SAS at 16-1 is very attractive. So are the Clips at 25.

[dude1394]

Not betting but I always follow the Sagarin Ratings in USAToday. The mavs were actually ahead before last night.

Rating, wins, losses,.....

1 Dallas Mavericks = 97.53 67 23 90.30( 10) 23 12 | 35 15 | 98.12 1 | 97.10 2
2 San Antonio Spurs = 97.02 68 24 90.27( 12) 20 11 | 33 19 | 96.90 3 | 97.17 1
3 Detroit Pistons = 96.86 70 21 89.56( 30) 20 8 | 37 15 | 97.19 2 | 96.59 3
4 Phoenix Suns = 94.65 60 33 90.23( 13) 19 19 | 30 24 | 94.12 4 | 95.32 4
5 Miami Heat = 93.69 59 33 89.74( 29) 11 17 | 27 25 | 93.78 5 | 93.64 5
6 Cleveland Cavaliers = 93.10 56 36 90.17( 15) 13 15 | 30 24 | 93.28 6 | 92.96 6
7 Los Angeles Clippers = 92.71 53 38 90.28( 11) 12 19 | 24 28 | 92.84 7 | 92.61 8

[chumdawg]

Originally Posted by chumdawg

With the talk about betting on tonight's Spurs game, I figured I would update this thread. Current odds:

Det ~1.8/1
SAS ~2.5/1
Dal ~7/1
Phx ~8/1
Mia ~8/1

You should be able to get at least 50/1 on everyone else.

This post from last year was from about this same time (March 2nd, last year). There is some interesting information in this thread, particularly given Detroit's white-hot start to the season last year. (At one point they were 47-9. They went 17-9 the rest of the way.)

Anyway, here are the odds as of now for this year. Dallas is exactly where Detroit was last year:

DAL 1.8/1
PHX 3.3/1
SAS 5/1
DET 8/1
MIA 15/1
CHI 16/1
CLE 18/1
HOU 20/1
UTA 20/1

I'm looking at these numbers because I've been doing a lot of studying the last couple days, and I'm starting to fear that San Antonio isn't near as removed from us as might seem the case. If I can come around to dismissing Phoenix (which I am close to doing...let me see what happens Wednesday), I might put some cash on both the Mavs' and Spurs' nose.

By the way, it's interesting to see how the Spurs went to 16/1 last year when they were down 1-3 to the Mavs in the second round. Boy, don't you know that some people were pissed when Dirk made the and-one!

[alexamenos]

Originally Posted by chumdawg

DAL 1.8/1
PHX 3.3/1
SAS 5/1
DET 8/1
MIA 15/1
CHI 16/1
CLE 18/1
HOU 20/1
UTA 20/1

best power rankings on earth...they're the result of multiple independent analysts considering qualitative and quantitative factors, and putting their money down....far better than any single formula....

[MavsX]

hmmmmmmmmm