How many games will the Mavs win this year?

[Tokey41]

Whats to be concerned about? Well lets see...

Team chemistry? Maybe. But our core stayed together and there won't be any problems unless they come from the role players. It will be a minor thing, its not like our system is rocket science for the bench and they are primarily veterans anyway.

Avery being somehow a less effective coach? I dont know, I think thats an unfair statement at this point, I dont think it will be any different. He knows they can win a title with the players he has now, I think he will still be excellent and slightly more motivated after being so close.

A deeper west? Aside from the hornets i'd say we improved the most all things considered while our biggest rivals (just in my opinions here) got worse.

Dirk being injured? Obviously a big blow but its not like victory is impossible without him. Jho might even step it up... so we have to pay him more to stay. And as mentioned you have to assume the young guns will only be better this year. Harris, Diop, Howard. Terry will be more suited for this team as well not having to worry about the playmaking duties and in turn probably have a monster season. Its not like we dont have a deep team, just one star.

So that said i'd say 62 is reachable (albeit optimistic), I know the league seems tough... but imagine how they feel when they look at us. We are the favorites aren't we? Whatever the case... it doesnt matter as long as we win the conference. I would take 50 if we won the conference.

[mary]

I don't remember what I predicted last year, but I wouldn't exactly call 56 wins a failure by any means.

Quite honestly, I think you've got to have a little bit of luck in a 60 win season, especially in terms of injuries and the timing of injuries...not only on your own team but on your opponents' as well.

Chum, you realize that the mavs have won 56 or less once in the last 4 years right?

Well, they have won more than 60 games...ZERO times

With all the injuries last years team went through....

There will be injuries again this year. I know occassionally teams get very lucky and have a healthy starting five all year...but that takes some luck...ALOT of luck.

[MavsX]

61 for sure....hoping for 70 wins and a title

[Drbio]

Originally Posted by capitalcity

*Updated*

Heat: http://nambla.org/
Spurs: http://nambla.org/
Suns: http://nambla.org/
Golden State: http://nambla.org/

omg!!!!!!!!

hahahahaha

[DubOverdose]

People are saying we need luck to hit 60. What happened last year? We had guys out for LONG stretches of time. We were always injured. What was the result? 60 wins. Luck was not on our side. Heck, we lost Doug Christie, our starting SG early in the season. I said 61 wins. We are better than last year, but every win after #58 seems extremely difficult.

[mary]

Well, at least 4 things come to mind right away:

1. A relatively healthy Dirk the entire year.
2. A relatively healthy Dampier the entire year.
3. Adrian Griffin still being available mid-season.
4. Facing a McGrady-less Rockets team four times = easy series sweep.



I'm sure there are other examples of good fortune, but those four came to mind right away.

But in the end, just because I don't think this team will win 70 games, obviously doesn't mean I don't expect them to make another deep run in the playoffs, or that I think they suck. I just think expecting a franchise-record setting regular season is not terribley realistic. Personally, I think winning even 60 games is pretty damn hard, and yeah, I think there is ALWAYS some measurement of luck involved (Hell, success in ANY sport requires some measurement of luck.)

BTW....Lucky Circumstance # 5 for the previous season was Amare's injury.....a lucky break for everyone in the conference.

[Dirkadirkastan]

Originally Posted by DubOverdose

but every win after #58 seems extremely difficult.

Here's why:

56-win season: 2.15 wins per loss
63-win season: 3.32 wins per loss

When the debate is put in this perspective, you can see how wide the gap between sides really is.

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by Flacolaco

Ok I guess I didnt know that was a real thing.....

Yeah, I made the mistake of clicking the link too - now my computer is probably marked by the government [POLITICAL RANT REMOVED IN ACCORDANCE TO THE PATRIOT ACT]

[Underdog]

So, what if everyone stays healthy & the team improves? All you neigh-sayers are DEPENDING on Dirk to get injured or the team chemistry to take a dive to back up your opinions [there's something rotten in Denmark!]

[JET_31]

61.....We will still win plenty of games even while resting people for the playoffs.

[mqywaaah]

Somewhere between 60-64... I hope.
64-18 is my best bet!
Cmon! We all know the Mavs are capable of such greatness. Why not this year?

[SeriousSummer]

In the last four years, the Mavs have won 60 games twice as often as any other number.

The smart money says: 60.

[Dirkadirkastan]

Bump.

We know the answer now.

[nashtymavsfan13]

I predicted 62. I think all our predictions will end up being too low, especially Chum's

[dude1394]

Originally Posted by chumdawg

I do hope I'm proven wrong, D2K, but last year has a smoke-and-mirrors feel to me. What I know is that if Manu doesn't foul at the end there, folks aren't so high on Dallas.

But more so than that fluke-ish play, what worries me is that subjugation in the Finals. I worry that the smoke and mirrors were exposed. I fully expect for every team this next year, all season long, to commit all their resources to slowing Dirk down. The team didn't do anything over the offseason to address the main reason they couldn't get over the hump. That worries me.

63 really *is* a stretch, no matter how you cut it. The Spurs fell on some good luck to get there. There are many, many, many very good teams in history who didn't see that number. Hell, Tim Duncan's Spurs of last year didn't ever have 63 wins under their belt, and in the process they had three titles.

I would lay you 20-to-1 that the Mavs don't win 63...and be very happy about it.

Now, not to say that they won't be the best team in the conference. But if your expectations are 63 wins, you are going to sorely disappointed. I'd plan for 55, hope for 58, and be ecstatic with 60,

D2K..Hope you took that 20-1 bet.

[Windmill360]

hopefully chum is ecstatic

[dude1394]

He's probably only happy that the gsw's might have a chance to knock the mavs off.

[dirno2000]

Originally Posted by dude1394

D2K..Hope you took that 20-1 bet.

I should have right . Next time Chum is so generous with the odds I'll have to call his bluff.

Like I said in my first post, I felt like we were going to play the season with a chip on our shoulder the way the Pistons did when they lost a Finals series they felt they should have won.

[FINtastic]

I just voted 63+ I hope I'm not going out on a limb or anything.

[Dirkadirkastan]

Originally Posted by dude1394

He's probably only happy that the gsw's might have a chance to knock the mavs off.

I wish this was a joke.

[chumdawg]

Color me surprised. Then again, you can color pretty much everyone else surprised, too. The Mavs pretty much shocked the world this regular season.

Hey, all I can go on is what I've seen. I've never seen a non-Jordan team even sniff 70. Most of the great teams fall in the 60-win range.

To predict anything more than 60, before the season, would be to lose your money more often than not. Well, for these Mavs, I'll go ahead and push that out to 63 or so. It's true that the league is becoming more striated these days. The parity of a few years ago is losing hold. But still...man.

Waiter, bring me two servings of crow!

By the way...I distinctly remember the headline on the sports page back in the spring of '87: "55!" in three-inch print. (Might have been the Times Herald back then...don't know for sure.) But the time was when 60 was seen as godly. Expansion has diluted it somewhat, I suppose.

[Dirkadirkastan]

50 wins over .500 is impressive, even over a long baseball season: 106-56.

[Tokey41]

I like how many people have voted since this thread has been brought back up...

[dirno2000]

To predict anything more than 60, before the season, would be to lose your money more often than not. Well, for these Mavs, I'll go ahead and push that out to 63 or so. It's true that the league is becoming more striated these days. The parity of a few years ago is losing hold. But still...man.

I had no idea they'd win over 65. That's been the historical cut off between good teams and elite teams.

I don't, however, think 63 was that crazy when you consider the fact that last year three teams won 60+ and two won 63+. The gap between the havs and the have nots seems to be growing. At least over 82 games....over 7 anything can happen as we saw last year.

[Flacolaco]

I'm fairly certain that I voted 56 or less...

[chumdawg]

Originally Posted by dirno2000

I had no idea they'd win over 65. That's been the historical cut off between good teams and elite teams.

I don't, however, think 63 was that crazy when you consider the fact that last year three teams won 60+ and two won 63+. The gap between the havs and the have nots seems to be growing. At least over 82 games....over 7 anything can happen as we saw last year.

You are, as usual, insightful...and I'm sorry I didn't recognize it earlier.

Hell, if I had, I guess I could have made a killing betting the Mavs OVER 56.5 at the beginning of the year. (It might have been 58.5 and my recalling incorrectly, but either way...easily destroyed.)

[mqywaaah]

Originally Posted by mqywaaah

Somewhere between 60-64... I hope.
64-18 is my best bet!
Cmon! We all know the Mavs are capable of such greatness. Why not this year?

I predicted 64, still seems too low.

[endrity]

I predicted 62, I feel ashamed for not trusting this team more. Actually this team has exceeded expectations for the last 3 years now, 58, 60, 67? I hope we don't get used to this in the future, but boy this feels good.

[Dirkadirkastan]

Originally Posted by Tokey41

I like how many people have voted since this thread has been brought back up...

TEN people voted 63+ before the season started.

ZERO people voted 59. Who the heck voted that just now?

[Usually Lurkin]

I just voted. . . . 63+
mad props to chum for chowing the crow-dish (though this thread is pretty good evidence that the whole world wasn't shocked by the mavs this season)
mad props also to craggmac, who's Mavs logo is better than the Mavs' logo.

mad kicks to the groin for madape, who still hasn't really shown back up for what's becoming his annual shaming.

[Male30Dan]

I said 62... I was wrong... I am happy for that fact!