D-Lord's Look At Free Agency

[StackAttack]

Great read, as always.

Summer Shopping
An In-Depth Look At Free Agency
By David Lord -- DB.com

Our rather comprehensive examination of how the Mavs can plunge into this summer's free-agency pool:





In our first post-season look at the Mavs (“Hard Look’’), we examined what we think went wrong as they fell short of their quest for a title. Now we start looking at the options available for improving the Mavs this summer.

The most obvious way to add talent is via free agency. In free agency, the team can add talent without having to deplete their existing talent base to do so. Therefore, in our analysis, we will look at free agency first, because once we determine where free agency can fill a hole or two, trades only need to be made to fill any holes that free agency can't satisfy. Then in our final installment (coming next week) we will look at the total picture: the existing assets the Mavs have available to use, the possibilities and limitations of free agency, and further avenues - including the role that the Mavs multiple draft choices might fill and potential trade options.

In spite of their "over the salary cap" status which keeps them from spending big money on a free agent, the Mavs are permitted to use their Mid-Level Exception (MLE) which is expected to be about $5.6M (first-year salary), their Bi-Annual Exception (BAE) which will be $1.83M, and unlimited minimum salary contracts for new free agents this summer. The MLE and BAE each may be spent on a single player or divided among more than one.

Usually those limits keep the Mavs from being a significant player in free agency. This time, we think things will be very different. In our analysis, this summer there will be a lot of talent and not enough money to go around. As a result, with an aggressive approach the Mavs have a good shot at getting at least one and perhaps more than one player that can help shore up their weak spots.

We'll first give a brief overview of the other teams and some of the factors that may effect their spending, then we'll sum up the total spending outlook for the league, followed by a list of free agents expected to be available this summer. Finally, we'll give our preferences for the Mavs' free agent money.

A LOOK AT SPENDING OPTIONS, TEAM-BY-TEAM

In order to evaluate the Mavs' spending options, it is vital to get a picture of the competition and their ability to bid on players. Here's a list of every other team, categorized by our view of their ability and willingness to spend this summer.

Could pay MAX MONEY to someone else’s free agent if they want to (2)



CHARLOTTE - should have enough for a max free agent and more … once Wallace opts out, they can keep Knight and a couple of role players and still have around $30M left to spend … if they work a deal with Wallace, they will still have enough room to get a max player plus another MLE-ish player, if they wish … they alternately could use their cap space by trading a future pick for a major talent on the block (offering pure cap savings to the seller) … their spending approach will drive this summer’s market, because unlike other franchises, they have tons of cap room now and later and can afford multiple long-term talents ... the qualifier is that, even though they have room to spend, they historically have shown extreme frugality

MILWAUKEE - they have several ways they can go ... if they want to get that one big deal, they could renounce rights to several free agents of their own (Skinner, Patterson, Bell) and have room for that one max free agent ... speculation links their cap space to a potential max (or near-max) offer to Billups



Could pay MORE-THAN-MLE MONEY to someone else’s free agent (3)



ATLANTA - they wont have max cap room, but should have "more than MLE" money to spend on one free agent if they wish

MEMPHIS - barring a bizarre gigantic cap leap, they wont have max room, but they will have over-MLE money for one FA if they wish to spend it ...keep in mind that the Memphis owner has been bleeding red ink and has publicly said "no more" - so once they get their high draft pick signed, there is no assurance they will be making anyone an over-MLE bid ... I wouldn’t be surprised to see them go young and cheap on their remaining roster slots

ORLANDO - their salary list masks several hidden costs (Bird rights for GHill and Milicic, player options for Dooling and Garrity, draft pick costs) which are likely in some combination to tie up a sizable chunk of cap room ... they should still have enough room for an over-MLE offer but a max offer should be out of their range



They will be limited to MLE MONEY because of technicalities and issues (3)



CHICAGO - could have enough for a "more than MLE" free agent (borderline case), but keep in mind that they have their own free agents that could use up some or most of their cap room (esp Nocioni, also PJ Brown) and if they go for an over-MLE signing elsewhere then they won’t have any leverage on Nocioni ...all of which means they are likely to be self-limited to the MLE

DETROIT - will only have over-MLE money if McDyess turns down his 6.37M player option (not likely) AND if they renounce their Bird rights on Billups (even less likely)

SACRAMENTO - would have max room if Bibby opts out of the last two years of his deal (13.5, 14.5) which is very unlikely ...that leaves the Kings with MLE money only



MLE ONLY TEAMS (in addition to above) that could make a full-MLE offer without paying tax (assumes a raise in tax level to 68.5M and an MLE of 5.8M) (9)



HOUSTON (assumes Bonzi Wells does not exercise 2.3M player option)

LA LAKERS

NEW JERSEY - (assumes Vince Carter opts out) if the Nets find a way to re-sign him, they almost certainly will lack tax-free spending room for a full MLE offer elsewhere

NEW ORLEANS

PORTLAND - borderline: exact draft position and draft pick salary may make them unable to spend the full MLE and stay tax-free

SEATTLE - (assumes Rashard Lewis opts out) if the Sonics find a way to re-sign him, they almost certainly will lack tax-free spending room for a full MLE offer elsewhere

TORONTO

UTAH

WASHINGTON



MLE ONLY teams that almost certainly will not be able to make a full-MLE offer without paying tax (assumes a raise in tax level to 68.5M and an MLE of 5.8M) (13)



BOSTON - their high pick will likely eat up about 3M in salary

CLEVELAND

DALLAS

DENVER

GOLDEN STATE - after a player option for Jasikevicius that he is virtually certain to exercise, draft pick money, and several empty roster slots to fill, a full MLE offer won’t remain possible under the tax level ... and this lack of salary flexibility should allow either Pietrus or Barnes (and maybe both) to go elsewhere for more money

INDIANA

LA CLIPPERS

MIAMI

MINNESOTA

NEW YORK

PHILADELPHIA

PHOENIX

SAN ANTONIO - technically they have full MLE room, but multiple player options (Finley, Oberto) and unguaranteed contracts (Bowen, Horry, White) make it likely they are already on the hook for too much to spend the full MLE without tax


THE BOTTOM LINE ON SPENDING: TOO MANY PLAYERS, TOO LITTLE MONEY



Using the data above, optimally there should only be enough money available in free agency this summer to pay 17-18 of the 49 names below a full-MLE contract. But, since a few teams with full MLE money may opt to split their money among multiple players, our belief is that this summer we should see the following:

* 3 players should get big money - Billups (to Detroit using Bird rights or Charlotte, Milwaukee, or Orlando), Carter (to NJ using Bird rights or Charlotte or Orlando), Lewis (to SEA using Bird rights or Charlotte or Orlando)

* 2-5 more are likely to get over-MLE deals (we expect Milicic and Wallace will definitely get over-MLE deals, and if any others get more than that, they should come from this list: Nocioni, Varejao, Webber)

* another 6-10 may get the MLE or close to it

* every other player listed below should be gettable for less than the MLE.

This means that once Billups, Carter, Lewis, Milicic, and Wallace (and maybe Nocioni, Varejao, and Webber) are off the market, the Mavericks will have just as much money as any other team to spend in free agency.



Now let's take a look at just who those free agents are.



FREE AGENTS AVAILABLE



This is our list of expected free agents this summer. The issue is complicated by the fact that there are quite a few players who have a "player option" and can keep their existing contract and stay with their existing team for another year (or more, in some cases) if they wish. In addition, there are players whose team has an option on another year, if the team wants to keep the existing deal.



To keep things simple, we have gone through the salary lists and made our best guess as to which players we feel pretty confident will not be free agents, with their option being exercised by player or team, and we have left those players off of this list. For some that may enter into the sports media conversations in the next month, we've added a note outlining why we think they won't be available.


OUR FA RANKINGS



We have ranked the players at each position in a very rough order of ability and value, but after the first few it's just a guess. We've added notes for some players.



Name – current team – position – age at beginning of next season

(R) = restricted free agent: current team has right of first refusal on any contract offer, (PO) = option to return to existing team, but we expect this player to be a free agent



POINT GUARDS



1. (PO) Billups (DET) - PG – 31 ... will get big money from someone, probably Detroit
2. (R) Williams (MIL) – PG – 24
3. Blake (DEN) – PG - 27
4. (PO) Boykins (MIL) – PG – 31
5. (R) Bell (MIL) – G – 28
6. Atkins (MEM) – PG – 33
7. Parker (LAL) – PG – 26
8. Hart (LAC) – PG - 29
9. Dooling (ORL) - PG - 27
10. Payton (MIA) - PG - 39

PG Note – Bibby (SAC) – 29 - has a player option, but we can’t see him giving up the 2 years and $28M still ahead on his existing deal


SHOOTING GUARDS



1. (PO) Carter (NJ) – SG – 30 ...there is uncertainty in whether he will choose to be a free agent, but if so he will command big money from someone
2. Stackhouse (DAL) – SG – 32 ... both player and team say they want him to return to Dallas
3. Mason (NO) – SG – 30
4. Kapono (MIA) – SG – 26
5. (PO) Finley (SA) – SG - 34 ... note: ineligible to sign with Dallas
6. (PO) Wells (HOU) – SG – 31
7. Carroll (CHA) – SG – 27
8. (PO) Stevenson (WAS) – SG – 26
9. E. Jones (MIA) – SG - 36
10. Murray (DET) - SG – 28


SMALL FORWARDS



1. (PO) Lewis (SEA) – SF – 28 ...will get big money from someone
2. (PO) Wallace (CHA) – SF – 25 ...will get big money from someone (Charlotte, we think)
3. (R) Nocioni (CHI) – SF – 27 ... should get over-MLE money, probably from Chicago who can match any offer
4. Hill (ORL) – SF – 35
5. Peterson (TOR) – SF – 30
6. Barnes (GS) – SF – 27 ... his playoff showing has moved him up the list, but one-year wonder?
7. (R) Pietrus (GS) – SF – 25
8. (PO) George (DAL) – SF – 30
9. (R) J Hayes (WAS) – SF - 26
10. (R) Outlaw (POR) – SF – 23
11. Walton (LAL) – SF – 27
12. Patterson (MIL) – SF – 32 ...Mavs have absolutely no interest due to extreme charact er issues
13. Ju Jones (PHX) – SF - 28
14. (R) C Hayes (HOU) – SF - 24
15. Udoka (POR) – SF – 30
16. Posey (MIA) – SF – 30

SF Note - Najera (DEN) - 31 - he has an option, but he has already announced he's not giving up his $5M contract for a free agent deal that would presumably be much smaller


POWER FORWARDS



1. (R) Milicic (ORL) – PF – 22 ...should get over-MLE money, probably from Orlando who can match any offer
2. Webber (DET) – PF – 34 ... Detroit likes him but may have to spend all their money on Billups
3. (R) Varejao (CLE) – PF – 25 ...may get over-MLE money, probably from Cleveland who can match any offer
4. Brown (CHI) – PF/C – 38
5. Williamson (SAC) – PF/SF - 33
6. Croshere (DAL) – PF – 32
7. Smith (PHI) – PF/C - 32
8. (PO) Oberto (SA) - PF- 32
9. Bonner (SA) - PF - 27
10. (R) Powell (GS) - PF - 23

PF Notes - we expect K Thomas (PHX) will prefer his $8M contract to less in free agency, and McDyess (DET) will keep his $6.37M for the same reason; Jermaine O'Neal (IND) does not have a player option and will not be a free agent


CENTERS



1. Moore (NJ) – C – 31
2. Mutombo (HOU) – C - 41
3. Magloire (POR) – C – 29
4. Mihm (LAL) – C – 28
5. DDavis (DET) – C/PF – 38
6. Jackson (NO) – C – 32
7. (R) Blatche (WAS) - C - 21
8. (R) Roberts (MEM) - C/PF - 25
9. Jackson (NO) - C - 32
10. (PO) Skinner (MIL) - C - 31 ... this is actually a team option, but will MIL turn it down at $5.85M?

C Note - Diop (DAL) - Mavs have a team option for $2.15M and they will use it and keep him



THE MAVS IN FREE AGENCY



There are at most 7 teams that should have over-MLE spending money to outbid the Mavs if they want to (Charlotte, Milwaukee, Atlanta, Memphis, Orlando, Chicago, Detroit). We think there are 5 players that are the strongest bets to get those over-MLE contracts (Billups, Carter, Lewis, Wallace, Milicic) and 3 that are borderline (Nocioni, Varejao, Webber).



Including the 3 borderline players, that leaves over 50 players on our list above that the Mavs can offer as much as anyone else can. In addition, we expect that there will only be 12 teams spending a full MLE (Sacramento, Houston, LA Lakers, New Jersey, New Orleans, Portland, Seattle, Toronto, Utah, Washington, Dallas, New York) assuming New Jersey (Carter) and Seattle (Lewis) don't retain their own premium free agent. There will be 11 other teams spending a partial MLE, or maybe even almost nothing, in free agency.



12 full MLE's. 11 partial MLE's. 50+ players left. You do the math.



Yep, it will be a buyer's market.



In that context, the Mavs may be tempted to look for bargains and try to get a pair of decent players at 1/2 the MLE each. In our opinion, that would be the wrong approach.



We would take the full MLE, and try to attack our needs. As we outlined in our previous article, the biggest need in our opinion is an inability to attack the basket. There is a need for bigger guards. There has been talk about upgrading at point guard. With desirable players in all shapes and sizes, we would look at players that fit those holes, and then try to pick off one very good player.



We can eliminate many of the players quite readily. For example, other than Billups (who will be far out of the Mavs' price range), almost none of the point guards in free agency would be better than what they already have. There are very few SG's who like to attack the basket on that list - most are shooters - and we wouldn't pay the full MLE for Mason (very inconsistent) or Wells (has become extremely unreliable). Both of those would be fallback options, but only at a reduced price. There are intriguing talents at SF, but the most desirable are unfortunately over-MLE guys.



Our list of players worth the Mavs spending the full-MLE on, in our order of preference, are as follows:



Chris Webber - The Pistons have a problem. They lost Ben Wallace in free agency last summer, and this summer they will be forced to outbid teams if they want to retain team leader Chauncey Billups. With Milwaukee and Orlando having lots of spending room and needing a player like Billups, he will be expensive to keep, but we think the Pistons have to pay the price. That signing will leave them at or over the tax level. To keep Webber, they will be left to consider whether to pay a load of tax for him, leaving an opportunity for the Mavs or some other team to steal him away.



For the Mavs, Webber would give them the talented low post scorer that they've lacked and that is so hard to find. His defense is spotty at times, but he's still big and rebounds well. Finding enough minutes for everyone might be a problem, but I'd worry about that later if he is interested in being here.



Grant Hill - When he's healthy (and he played 65 this season, plus 4 more in the playoffs), he's still a force and can attack. The teams reportedly at the top of his list (Detroit, Phoenix, Orlando) all are facing money dilemmas. We think Hill and J-Ho could play alongside each other at SG/SF, offering size and two-way play at both positions and freeing Harris and Jet to split PG duties rather than be an undersized guard pair, and allowing room for Stack and Ager to complement them.



In our ideal dream world, the Mavs find a way (MLE to Webber, BAE to Hill who comes onboard in a George-like bargain deal?) to get both veterans on the roster and get their holes filled in both the frontcourt and the backcourt. Are they both older players? Absolutely. But they each possess talent the Mavs need, while the younger players in free agency aren't nearly as desirable.



Now, there are other players in this free agent class that are quite talented - but their skills don't match the Mavs needs. But other teams have needs in those areas. Those other players are likely to absorb a chunk of the available money in the market, leaving less competition (and thus lowering the price) for players the Mavs might want.



Free agents that may not be worth the full MLE, but that we think could improve this team enough to be worth close to MLE money (4M or more), are:



PF PJ Brown, PG Steve Blake, F Corliss Williamson



If the price is less than 4M (leaving room for a 2nd MLE player as well), there are additional free agents worth considering. Before we pooh-pooh the idea that these players will be available for less than 4M, take another look at the full free agent list and remember how limited the spending is likely to be by the teams this summer. There will be big bargains, and these may be some of them.



SG Desmond Mason, SG Bonzi Wells, SF Morris Peterson, PF/C Joe Smith, PF Francisco Oberto, C Chris Mihm, SF Matt Barnes



At the bottom of the Mavs' shopping list, there should still be multiple players left, ones that can help this team with youth, athleticism, and talent and that will be even less expensive. We won't list them all. Regardless of whether the Mavs spend their MLE on one or two players, with the bargains expected this summer, we hope the team considers using its BAE (only allowable for use every other year) as well, in a year when bargains should be so plentiful.



As you look at the free agent list, don't forget the spending issues most teams will be facing. After the high dollar guys are off the board, there will stll be 50+ players left. Only 12 full MLE's. Only 11 partial MLE's. It will be a buyer's market, and we hope to see the Mavs making some aggressive smart targeted acquisitions as a result.

[aexchange]

already posted. locking thread.