Doc's official gameday thread...the electoral tracking official thread.

[sike]

check this out... MSNBC

[Drbio]

West Virginia to Bush....[img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-smile.gif[/img]

[Drbio]

Popular vote is now 58-42.......only 2% reporting though. [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-wink.gif[/img]

[Drbio]

Uh oh....BREAKING NEWS.......

Florida election officials are announcing that they probably will not be able to count all of the absentee ballots until Thursday.

Crud. Florida may stay in play until Thursday?

[Drbio]

North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia and Ohio remain too close to call.

[Murphy3]

Florida Department of State Division of Elections

Just some Florida numbers.

As of 7:55, Bush holds a 56.6% to 42.5% lead over Kerry....

[Drbio]

Bush wins: Alabama, Tennessee, Oklahoma

Kerry wins: New Jersey (Ohshit!), Maine, Connecticut, D.C., Maryland

[sturm und drang]

New Jersey is the first swing state being "called" by media outlets... to Kerry!

I know I'm in the minority here, but please allow me to at least express this:

[img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-smile.gif[/img]

[Murphy3]

Florida County breakdown

[Drbio]

Nice to see ya Sturmie!

[Drbio]

Originally posted by: Murphy3
Florida County breakdown

No Broward County voting results yet...these numbers sadly mean little.

[Drbio]

South Carolina to Bush.

[Murphy3]

Originally posted by: Drbio

No Broward County voting results yet...these numbers sadly mean little.

.....of course...but, just trying to give routine breakdowns as the night goes on.

[sturm und drang]

Thanks, Doc! Too much work, far too little time to be spent on the Internet of late. Sadly.

This is going to be an all-nighter for me. Unfortunately, I just don't foresee having a concrete answer on this election for at least a week. The 2000 precendent will prove an ugly one. Instant gratification be damned.

[Murphy3]

Latest U.S. Presidential Returns

11 minutes ago

By The Associated Press

Here are the latest nationwide election returns in the race for president with 3 percent of the nation's precincts reporting. The winner is marked with an 'x'.



Kerry 1,529,495 - 42 percent


Has won 4 states with 51 ev.


Leads in 1 state with 4 ev.


Bush 2,062,641 - 57 percent


Has won 5 states with 48 ev.


Leads in 6 states with 94 ev.


Others 27,642 - 1 percent


Needed to win: 270 of the 538 electoral votes (ev) from the 50 states and the District of Columbia
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmp...3&sid=96378798

[Drbio]

Check the first post in this thread for updates...that AP report is sloooooow. Doc has real time service tonight. [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-smile.gif[/img]


Sturm- I had NJ going to Kerry in my electoral college thread, but I was hoping that Bush might sneak that one away.

[Drbio]

FWIW, CNN is reporting that Florida will likely go to Bush due to a huge increase in votes from 2000 in the Interstate 4 corridor. Interesting.

[sturm und drang]

Personally, I would be surprised to see Florida go to Kerry. I actually think OH and PA more likely to go to him.

[Drbio]

If Bush holds Florida and Ohio it is basically over. Kerry must win one of those.

[Drbio]

My last quick poll result from PEL was about ten minutes ago and has Bush leading in Florida by +8 and in Ohio by +3.

[Drbio]

North Carolina and Virginia to Bush!!!!!!

[sturm und drang]

I have been spending way too much time in Florida recently, and I just can't shake the highly unscientific observation that it just feels like an innately Republican state to me.

Next, I will be tossing rune stones and consulting magic 8 balls for predictions. [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-wink.gif[/img]

[Drbio]

hahahaha....that I-4 corridor analysis by CNN was enough to convince me that Bush has Florida in pocket.

[mavsman55]

I am ashamed of my state - 72% Kerry right now.

Crap.

[Drbio]

Bush wins: Texas, South Dakota, Nebraska, Wyoming, North Dakota, Kansas

Kerry wins: Pennsylvania, New York, Rhode Island

[mavsman55]

Originally posted by: Drbio
Bush wins: Texas, South Dakota, Nebraska, Wyoming, North Dakota, Kansas

Kerry wins: Pennsylvania, New York, Rhode Island

Chalk Kerry up for California also - it's a given.

[Drbio]

Not until official. [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-wink.gif[/img]

[Drbio]

Louisiana goes to Bush!



Colorado also shot down the amendment to split their electoral votes. All nine votes go to the winner.

[Drbio]

Mississippi to Bush....finally....

[Drbio]

OK Folks...here it is....I have Bush winning 171-134 (but the networks have yet to join me in giving Penn to Kerry). Bush needs 99 electoral votes to get to 269 which would be a tie. If a tie occurs, the vote goes to the Republican controlled House to vote by states. The Repubs control more than 25 states, so it is safe to say that Bush only needs 269 electoral votes to win.

Bush is up by 6% in Florida.....27 votes. He is also up in Ohio by 5% for 20 votes. That is 47 votes so he would need 52 more votes. Montana, Idaho, Arizona and Utah are strong Bush states and give him an additional 22 votes so now he only needs 30. Alaska is Bush for three more reducing Bush's need to 27 votes. Mizzou and Arkansas are likely Bush states which bring in 17 more votes...now Bush needs 10.

Hello Wisconsin or Minnesota which have ten votes each. What about New Mexico with 5 and Nevada with 5? Iowa's 7 votes? Hawaii's 3? Colorado's 9? Bush now leads Wisconsin and Minnesota early.....Who knows?


Bush fans....it looks a little better than it did earlier today. [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-smile.gif[/img]

[Drbio]

Bush now leads the popular vote 53%-47%

Bush's lead keeps growing in Florida according to CNN.

[mercury_rev]

Bush isn't doing nearly as badly in Miami-Dade as I'd expected.

edited for using adjective instead of adverb

[Drbio]

Bush wins Missouri and Arkansas!!!!!!

17 more votes to Bush!

[Drbio]

Originally posted by: mercury_rev
Bush isn't doing nearly as bad in Miami-Dade as I'd expected.

Bush will carry Florida by 5-9%.

[Drbio]

FYI....Missouri has gone to the winning Presidential candidate 24 of the last 25 elections. Bush carried Mizzou tonight. [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-smile.gif[/img]

The Redskins streak may be over big tonight. [img]i/expressions/thumbsup.gif[/img]

[Drbio]

Utah just went for Bush!!!!!!!

5 more votes!

[u2sarajevo]

Interesting race in New Hampshire... Bush is ahead right now with 46% of the precincts reporting by 250 votes.

[Drbio]

I want to do another projection.....It's my thread...why not? [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-tongue.gif[/img]


Bush has 193 electoral votes in pocket. He needs 76 more votes to get to 269 which sends the vote into the House for a republican owned vote. [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-smile.gif[/img] It's good to have the House.

Here are the lock states for Bush and their votes:
Montana - 3
Idaho - 4
Arizona - 10
Alaska - 3

That adds up to 20 more basically guaranteed electoral votes to bring Bush's total to 213 leaving only 56 votes needed. Bush leads still in Florida and I am pretty much sure he has Florida in pocket for 27 votes. That would give Bush 240 electoral votes needing only 29 more. Ohio is leaning Bush right now by 6% for another 20 electoral votes. That would be 260 votes...leaving a need for only nine more votes.

Could Wisconsin or Minnesota which have ten votes each put Bush over? What about New Mexico with 5 and Nevada with 5? Iowa's 7 votes plus Hawaii's 3? Colorado's 9?

I bet Kerry is sweating...of course...all of us should until official.

[mercury_rev]

Originally posted by: Drbio
Utah just went for Bush!!!!!!!

5 more votes!

Utah went for Bush?! I'm shocked!!! [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-smile.gif[/img]

[Drbio]

hahaha...that did sound kind of bad didn't it? [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-blush.gif[/img]