Doc's official gameday thread...the electoral tracking official thread.

[Drbio]

2004 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - ELECTORAL VOTE COUNT

President George W. Bush - 286
Senator John Kerry - 252

FINAL RESULTS PER DOC....the weenie networks are still mulling it over.

<u>UPSET STATES:</u>
Iowa goes to Bush from Gore in 2000.
New Hampshire goes to Kerry from Bush in 2000.

<u>Bush States:</u>
Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Arkansas (6), Colorado (9), Florida (27), Georgia (15), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Iowa (7), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Missouri (11), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), Nevada (5), New Mexico (5), North Carolina (15), North Dakota (3), Ohio (20), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), Virginia (13), West Virginia (5), Wyoming (3)

<u>Kerry States:</u>
California (55), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Maine (4), Maryland (12), Massachusetts (12), Michigan (17), Minnesota (10), New Hampshire (4), New Jersey (15), New York (34), Oregon (7), Pennsylvania (21), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington (11), Wisconsin (10)














I will update this thread throughout the day as official vote counts are posted. I've signed up for a service which provides me with realtime vote results via email as they become available. Once a state is awarded, I will post it here. I'll keep an electoral score in this first post for easy reference.

Please...feel free to comment in this thread and have fun. I look forward to today so should you. I hope everyone posts in here from all parties. Let's enjoy it. There is nothing we can do about the final result so let's havea good time.

If kerry wins I am sure that reeds, mavdog and others will gush in this thread. To be fair, many of us will do the same if Bush wins. If kerry wins, may God help us all. If Bush wins, God has truly blessed us all. [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-tongue.gif[/img]

Have a great day my d-m.com friends....it's election day. It's finally here and thankfully will be over soon. [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-happy.gif[/img]

[Drbio]

Thank you for the sticky! [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-smile.gif[/img]


I'll start us off....please jump in folks. As you know I have been poll tracking for the last month. The latest polls available (I've averaged all polls, both repub and dim) give kerry a slight electoral edge. Ugh. However, the vote trending gives us a solid Bush re-election.

This is going to be a long, nail-biting day.

[Chiwas]

Shouldn't this thread be nonpartisan? [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-happy.gif[/img]

[chumdawg]

Can we get a weather report from Philadelphia? We sure could use some storms there. And in Cleveland...

[Drbio]

Originally posted by: Chiwas
Shouldn't this thread be nonpartisan? [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-happy.gif[/img]

I just hope it is fun. The election rants are done. The election is in the hands of the people of the United States....exactly where it should be. I am just hoping for some good chat and a fun day of tracking.

[seal614]

it's um, sunny here in Philadelphia.

My vote is in.

- Brian

[Chiwas]

The election is in the hands of the people of the United States....exactly where it should be.

Indeed. With resonance to the entire world. We all are expecting.

[u2sarajevo]

I feel pretty confident in giving Bush 34 EV's (from Texas) and Kerry 86 EV's (from New York and California)

[mary]

I voted last week. Regardless of what happens, I feel so incredibly blessed to be given the opportunity to vote for the leader of the United States and the pretty much the free world. I hope everyone else feels the same. I hope not a single person sits at home today, because they feel their vote doesn't count. I hope not a single person sits at home today, because they don't live in a "swing" state. I hope we see lines out in the streets of people waiting to vote. I hope we see a record turn out. And above all things, I hope we know who the President is before the night is over with. I also hope that the candidate who wins the electoral college, wins the popular vote as well and has a clear and undisputed mandate.

[chumdawg]

For what it's worth, Bush has moved up four points today on Trade Sports. He's currently at 57 to 43. So the late money is on the incumbent.

[dude1394]

I was waiting in line at the polling place two weeks ago... I couldn't wait to pull that big REPUBLICAN straight ticket. OOOOOOOHHHHHHH it felt so good.....[img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-smile.gif[/img]

[Dooby]

first exit poll numbers for the Buckeye State: Bush 49, Kerry 41. Obviously, this is only of the morning voters, and the remaining 10 percent are probably either "other" or "none of your business."

[Dooby]

Election 2004 has been rocked with first wave of exit polls which show Kerry competitive in key states, campaign and media sources tell DRUDGE.... National Election Pool -- representing six major news organization -- shows Kerry in striking distance -- with small lead -- in Florida and Ohio.. MORE...

From NRO:

Hearing Kerry one ahead, from multiple (media and political) sources

[chumdawg]

Which is it, "striking distance" or "small lead"? Confusing.

[Dooby]

Not posting the exact quotes, but appears Kerry +1 in Fla, +4 in Ohio. Not sure how much it means as the exit polls were waaaay off 4 years ago. Time will tell.

[Dooby]

Guam goes for Bush

[Dooby]

RUMOR [NRO Staff]
bush down 4 in ohio, down 4 in fla, downm 1 in NM, down 1 in mich, down 2 iowa

As Kathryn said, these early reports are unreliable, but these are numbers we just got from a major newsroom. Take with a grain of salt.

[chumdawg]

Originally posted by: Dooby
Not posting the exact quotes, but appears Kerry +1 in Fla, +4 in Ohio. Not sure how much it means as the exit polls were waaaay off 4 years ago. Time will tell.

Doobs, what was the situation in 2000? I can't remember following the exit polls that day.

[Dooby]

Well, remember, the exit pollings are not for public consumption so what you get are leaked numbers from newsrooms. To some extent, they are like the BCS numbers; they don't mean anything until they are complete.Drudge had some last year. From what I recall, Gore was way ahead everywhere; even in the states that weren't that close for Bush.

[madape]

Now it appears the early exit polls weren't that accurate. The sample contained 60% women, 40% men.

[Drbio]

My service has provided the first round of exit polls which were forwarded to the election commission folks (why I have no idea, but they said it so I passed it on here).

Ohio Kerry +2
Florida Kerry +4.5
Pennsylvania Kerry +3

Doesn't look so good, but as Dooby pointed out....exit polls are historically iffy at best.



Another information bit that was passed on.....the question was asked if the voter deemed themselves democrat, republican or other party.

Results: Dims 58%, Repubs 40.5%, Other, 1.5%

[Drbio]

Results: Dims 58%, Repubs 40.5%, Other, 1.5%

This bothered me more than the exit poll data. An approximate 18% margin is indicative of tremendous dim voter turnout and is unfortunately waaaaaaaaay outside of the margin of error which was listed at 3%.

[chumdawg]

I'd like to know how big that sample is.

Interesting about that 60/40 Dem/Rep split. If the Dems were turning out so furiously, presumable for the reason that they hate Bush, why should Kerry's lead be slim?

[Drbio]

Sorry chummy....it didn't give the sample size, but a 3% margin of error indicates a large sample size, likely &gt;1,000.

[chumdawg]

If both sets of data are correct, that means that one of out every six or so Republicans is voting Kerry, and that's assuming that no Democrats are voting Bush. It doesn't seem to make much sense.

[Murphy3]

The Republicans have jobs and haven't been able to vote yet.

[Murphy3]

Originally posted by: Dooby
Well, remember, the exit pollings are not for public consumption so what you get are leaked numbers from newsrooms. To some extent, they are like the BCS numbers; they don't mean anything until they are complete.Drudge had some last year. From what I recall, Gore was way ahead everywhere; even in the states that weren't that close for Bush.

From Drudge

'Exit poll mania spread through media and campaign circles Tuesday afternoon after first wave of morning data showed Kerry competitive in key states.... National Election Pool -- representing six major news organization -- shows Kerry in striking distance -- with small 1% lead -- in Florida and Ohio, sources tell DRUDGE... [But early 2000 exit polls showed Gore +3 in Florida; showed Gore-Bush even in CO [Bush won by 9], exits showed Gore +4 in AZ [Bush won by 6]... Exits Senate races: Thune +4 Castor +3 Burr +6 Bunning +6 Coburn +6 Demint +4 Salazar +4... '

[Bookit]

Originally posted by: Murphy3
The Republicans have jobs and haven't been able to vote yet.

[img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-happy.gif[/img]

[u2sarajevo]

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks changed course suddenly on Tuesday as chatter on the Internet speculated that early exit polls show Sen. John Kerry leading the presidential election in key states.

[chumdawg]

Bush shares are plummeting on Trade Sports. Down to 39 (from a high of 59 earlier today).

[Drbio]

Originally posted by: chumdawg
Bush shares are plummeting on Trade Sports. Down to 39 (from a high of 59 earlier today).

Time to buy. [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-wink.gif[/img]


Exit poll data is smoothing out throughout the day. Kerry still holds slim leads in Florida and has opened up an additional point in Penn, but Ohio is a Bush +3 now.

[Drbio]

Originally posted by: chumdawg
If both sets of data are correct, that means that one of out every six or so Republicans is voting Kerry, and that's assuming that no Democrats are voting Bush. It doesn't seem to make much sense.

Don't mix the poll info. My data hasn't divulged the dem/repub split yet. Plus, it's exit polls. Don't get too excited.

[chumdawg]

Thanks for the clarification. And yeah, if Bush goes on to win, it's definitely time to buy. He's at $29.50 now. That's more than 2-1 on your money.

Keep the info coming. God knows that bit about Ohio gave me a shot in the arm. I've felt like crap for the past few hours.

[Dooby]

From Kerry Spot (good info, despite GOP perspective)

HOW TO WATCH ELECTION NIGHT [11/02 11:35 AM]

6 P.M. EST

At 6 P.M., polls close in Indiana and Kentucky. The evening gets off to a slow, comfortable beginning, as Indiana and Kentucky are both Bush states, and solidly so.

7 P.M. EST

At 7 P.M., polls close in Georgia, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia, and the east side of Florida and New Hampshire, sort of.

In New Hampshire, state law permits its 13 cities to keep their polls open until 8 P.M.

Because the majority of the state's polls have closed by 7 P.M., the networks have no problem considering this hour as the earliest hour of potential projection. However, with New Hampshire being a key swing state, a wise network would hold off a bit if the exit poll does not show an overwhelming winner.

In light of that, expect CBS (and perhaps some other foolish networks) to declare both Florida and New Hampshire for Kerry at this hour, even though the polls are still open.

Georgia, South Carolina, and Virginia should all be safe Bush states, and Vermont should be safe Kerry.

7:30 P.M. EST

At 7:30 P.M., polls close in Ohio, West Virginia, and most of North Carolina.

Like New Hampshire, the Tarheel State allows its County Boards of Elections to decide whether to keep polls open until 8:30 P.M. EST. Outside of metropolitan areas, this local option is not often utilized and so the networks usually call the state around 7:30 P.M., even though the polls are still open.

Expect CBS to call North Carolina for John Edwards, and then adjust their projection several hours later.

Ohio will be key, but if it is as close as everyone is predicting, the final count shouldn't be in until much later in the evening — perhaps midnight. Be wary of early calls on this state.

If Kerry were to somehow win West Virginia, it would be a sign of an early night and a big Kerry win.

8 P.M. EST

At 8 P.M., polls close in Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, the District of Columbia, Illinois, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, Mississippi, the rest of New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Texas, and the west side of Florida.

By this hour, we may have our best sense of how the night is going — depending on whether the exit-polling data is showing a clear winner in Florida, Michigan. and Pennsylvania. MI and PA should both be close, and thus the projection of a final winner in these key states could and should take a while. If either one looks like it is tipping for Bush, then it will be an early night, as it will be nearly-impossible for Kerry to make up losing those 20-plus electoral votes in each.

You already know about Florida — this may be the most key indicator of the night. If Florida looks like a Bush win fairly early, then the GOP turnout effort will likely have worked and it will be a good sign for all the other swing states. If Kerry is leading, then it will be a sign that Democrats have held their traditional advantage in getting their base voters to the polls.

It will be interesting if the networks are keeping track of separate exit-polling data for Maine's Second Congressional District. If Bush wins that electoral vote, it would be a key indication that he's running ahead of where he was in 2000, and could be in for a big night.

Kerry's share of the vote in Massachusetts should be interesting, although there is no doubt he will win.

Democrats had once hoped to win Missouri — Bush's margin here could be an interesting indicator. If it's close, he might be in trouble, and Kerry might regret conceding this state so early.

By this hour, there should be a clearer picture about New Hampshire.

8:30 P.M. EST

At 8:30 P.M., polls close in Arkansas and the rest of North Carolina.

The most optimistic Democrats were hoping Clinton magic would give Kerry a win in Arkansas, and that Edwards was going to help win North Carolina. Few polls have shown either state all that close, and I expect their results to get only a casual glance as the discussion of the 8 P.M. finishers continues.

9 P.M. EST

At 9 P.M., polls close in Arizona, Colorado, Louisiana, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Wisconsin, and Wyoming.

More and more, New Mexico is striking me as a key, key state. It only has five electoral votes, but if this blue state turns red, it creates many headaches for Kerry. A Bush win here offsets any bad news from New Hampshire.

As for Wisconsin and Minnesota, each one is turning into a junior version of Pennsylvania or Michigan. If Kerry sweeps these two, he's in good shape. If he drops one, he could still win, but will be lucky to break 280. If he drops both, it's just about over.

There are few people who still think Kerry could win Colorado, but if he pulled off an upset there, it would be huge. The proportional-electoral-vote ballot initiative is likely to go down, but that's another factor worth keeping an eye on.

10 P.M. EST

At 10 P.M., polls close in North Dakota, Idaho, Montana, Utah, and Iowa.

By now, we should have some answers about the close races from earlier in the evening, and perhaps the first official post-election lawsuits will be filed. Democratic lawyers will begin boarding their chartered jets, reacting to any state that Bush won that Team Kerry felt they should have won. Iowa will be an interesting test — if Bush picks it up, it may be one of the last indicators of the evening.

11 P.M. EST

At 11 P.M., polls close in California, Washington, Hawaii, and Oregon.

The big three should be Kerry — but Hawaii will be fun to watch. The Bush team seems ebullient about its chances here, and boy, wouldn't reporters love to do some on-the-spot reporting about this state's results after the election? "Boss, Hawaii's going for Bush is the big story of this election. I need to spend at least a week researching this."

Midnight EST

At midnight., polls close in Alaska.

Hopefully, by this hour we will have a president. Maybe not. Network coverage is slated to continue until at least 1 A.M. Bars will hopefully be open well into the morning hours for the political faithful to celebrate or to commiserate.

[reeds]

Kerry shocks the world tonight baby!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Dooby]

From DJ Drummond at PoliPundit:

Kerry people are stressed, too.
A guy at my office works the phones for the Kerry Northwest campaign (Washington, Oregon, etc.).

Their people are freaking out over exit polls indicating Kerry tied or losing in Oregon.

Plenty of pressure for everyone.


UPDATE: A Kerry Spot reader asks, "Oregon voters mail in their ballots, so where, exactly, are these polled voters exiting from?" I understand today is the last day to turn in ballots or postmark them. Could Team Kerry have seen something ominous in the early voting?

[chumdawg]

My goodness, this should be a fun night!

[chumdawg]

Zogby projecting Kerry the winner, by a landslide. If he's wrong, should this guy retain a shred of credibility?

[Drbio]

Kentucky to Bush officially.....Bush leads popular vote 57-43.

[Drbio]

Bush also is given Georgia and Indiana by PEL.

Kerry gets Vertmont for 3 EV's.





I updated the top post.....Bush 34-3