Nerlens Noel

[tap2390]

Originally Posted by Underdog

Nerlens Noel says he’d bet on himself
https://www.mavsmoneyball.com/platfo...bet-on-himself

IMO give him 4/79 and let's get this over with. He needs to realize the market has spoken and to be realistic about the 2018 market. We need pony up a little more cash or we risk losing someone who could be a cornerstone of our franchise for years.

[EricaLubarsky]

Originally Posted by Underdog

Nerlens Noel says he’d bet on himself
https://www.mavsmoneyball.com/platfo...bet-on-himself

QO would certainly make things exciting for us. On one hand, he goes UFA. On the other hand, there is only 871 million available in cap for all teams combined and 45+ quality free agents hitting the market.

That's not a bet I'd make personally unless Mavs are EXTREMELY low. The health of Noel and the projections about the 2017-2018 free agency period both would make me consider getting a deal done this offseason.

[Underdog]

Honestly, I can see why the Mavs are playing hardball here... The difference between Noel getting max and whatever the FO is offering is probably enough to cover Seth's salary (or that much more to throw at other players next year).

If he takes the QO and becomes a UFA next summer, he'll be the third-best center in a tight market, behind Boogie and DeAndra... And I'd definitely consider throwing max at either of those headcases over Noel if our relationship sours because he's too stubborn to accept his market value.

At this point, the Mavs have more options than Nerlens does -- he has almost zero leverage... Hope his agent doesn't blow this for him.

[Melonhead]

Why even bother with the haha you wont get any money next summer. Well what if he did? Then we look like idiots per usual with an egg on our face chasing Demarcus Cousins. Just pay him before it gets out of hand. Everyone isnt Dirk and you cant continue to expect players to act like he does. Meet in the got dang middle.

The only way Mavs should hold out is if he wants the full 25m/year. I would go as high as 20, but would like 17-18. Just ready for this to be over because we all thought this would go pretty quickly.

[EricaLubarsky]

Mostly I'm just curious about the Mavs offer.

Are we offering 7mill a year? If so, then we're being ridiculous.

If we're offering anything above 15 mill, then Noel's agent (and possibly Noel too) is being ridiculous in not accepting a very fair offer for a guy who has never played a full season and has fairly unremarkable advanced stats

Among centers
30th in EWA
16th in PER
36th in rebounding rate

Those aren't the stats that scream "max player"

[Bryan_Wilson]

Originally Posted by Underdog

Nerlens Noel says he’d bet on himself
https://www.mavsmoneyball.com/platfo...bet-on-himself

Well based on that hashtag crap I'd say he's still looking for his max or very close to it. Because I doubt the Mavs would be unwilling to pay in that 16-18m range. And I'm glad he's working hard in the gym but he couldn't find someone who is over 5'2 to work with?

[EricaLubarsky]

Originally Posted by Bryan_Wilson

Well based on that hashtag crap I'd say he's still looking for his max or very close to it. Because I doubt the Mavs would be unwilling to pay in that 16-18m range. And I'm glad he's working hard in the gym but he couldn't find someone who is over 5'2 to work with?

He can try.

Honestly I think the QO is a win/win.

We only pay him 4 mill meaning we can pick up some expiring contracts to save tax/cap or offer someone a fat one-year deal.

QO makes him play like it's a contract year. He has to play his ass off this year or he won't get paid much next year. If he gets injured, then we go after another center. If he plays well, then we can still offer him anything he wants. Only difference is that he's a UFA vs. an RFA. 4 million for a guy who is playing for his life sounds like a decent deal for me.

Plus I think he's going to really learn to like playing with Slanger. One year putting up 22ppg on easy lobs has got to get us some points with him.

[SMC0007]

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

He can try.

Honestly I think the QO is a win/win.

We only pay him 4 mill meaning we can pick up some expiring contracts to save tax/cap or offer someone a fat one-year deal.

QO makes him play like it's a contract year. He has to play his ass off this year or he won't get paid much next year. If he gets injured, then we go after another center. If he plays well, then we can still offer him anything he wants. Only difference is that he's a UFA vs. an RFA. 4 million for a guy who is playing for his life sounds like a decent deal for me.

Plus I think he's going to really learn to like playing with Slanger. One year putting up 22ppg on easy lobs has got to get us some points with him.

[mac222b]

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

Mostly I'm just curious about the Mavs offer.

Are we offering 7mill a year? If so, then we're being ridiculous.

If we're offering anything above 15 mill, then Noel's agent (and possibly Noel too) is being ridiculous in not accepting a very fair offer for a guy who has never played a full season and has fairly unremarkable advanced stats

Among centers
30th in EWA
16th in PER
36th in rebounding rate

Those aren't the stats that scream "max player"

Nothing to base this on but I'd guess we are offering around 15m per high end and he wants closer to 22-25m. Don't see us going any higher than 18 in this market.

[BPo001]

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

He can try.

Honestly I think the QO is a win/win.

We only pay him 4 mill meaning we can pick up some expiring contracts to save tax/cap or offer someone a fat one-year deal.

QO makes him play like it's a contract year. He has to play his ass off this year or he won't get paid much next year. If he gets injured, then we go after another center. If he plays well, then we can still offer him anything he wants. Only difference is that he's a UFA vs. an RFA. 4 million for a guy who is playing for his life sounds like a decent deal for me.

Plus I think he's going to really learn to like playing with Slanger. One year putting up 22ppg on easy lobs has got to get us some points with him.

If he signs the QO can we go over the cap next season to resign him or is it different because he would be an UFA?

[sefant77]

Its His or His agents Last Play...He is Not taking The QO. ESPN Just Had an article about The coming nuclear Winter for The 2018 FA Class. Also and still a result of The 2016 Summer. They know The 2018 Market...

PS: damn autocorrect Always Switch to big Letters

[Thebo]

It is also hurting Noel that nobody outside of Dallas is even talking about his contract situation. He is being treated like an average guy, although he was valued before the Philly trade. I think he received more attention while sitting on the bench for 76ers than he has gotten this during the summer. Why should the Mavs pay him a lot then?

Mavs may also be looking that his QO would suit them better as they will be financially flexible next summer with many good free agents available and not many teams able to spend their cash on the FAs.

[EricaLubarsky]

Originally Posted by BPo001

If he signs the QO can we go over the cap next season to resign him or is it different because he would be an UFA?

We would have full Bird rights so we could sign him for whatever he wants. Even more as the home team. We may be stupid to do a super max, but we could. We actually have full bird now as this is the third year on the same contract but no need.

[tap2390]

If Nerlens takes the QO, his cap hold next offseason would be approximately $14.5 million. Hypothetically we could get free agents to commit verbally before carving out the space by renouncing Noel, etc. similar to how the Celtics got Hayward to commit before trading Bradley.

[spreedom]

I would rather max Nerlens right now and be done with it than risk him going into next summer as a UFA. IMO he's as good as gone if that happens. I understand the concept of fair market value but this guy could and frankly should develop into a regular DPOY contender, and I'm going to be really fucking pissed if he walks over like $7-8M a year.

[Bryan_Wilson]

Originally Posted by spreedom

I would rather max Nerlens right now and be done with it than risk him going into next summer as a UFA. IMO he's as good as gone if that happens. I understand the concept of fair market value but this guy could and frankly should develop into a regular DPOY contender, and I'm going to be really fucking pissed if he walks over like $7-8M a year.

Why is he as good as gone, I'm confused? We said we would match any offer. Not 1 team made a respectable offer for us to match. So there are 29 teams out there giving him 0 offers and one team that liked him enough to trade for him and has said he is their priority, their only priority. But because we won't make a bad deal that is above market value he will leave to join a team that didn't make an offer for him? Or are you saying he will be so good that teams will be lining up 1 year from now to make him a day 1 priority like some of the names listed above by UD? Edit- in which case, in that unlikely event nobody could offer more than we could.

[Dtownsfinest]

Originally Posted by spreedom

I would rather max Nerlens right now and be done with it than risk him going into next summer as a UFA. IMO he's as good as gone if that happens. I understand the concept of fair market value but this guy could and frankly should develop into a regular DPOY contender, and I'm going to be really fucking pissed if he walks over like $7-8M a year.

Yeah I'm not against maxing him.....especially after seeing us waste money on Wes and Parsons.....at least there's youth and potential here with Noel.

[spreedom]

Originally Posted by Bryan_Wilson

Why is he as good as gone, I'm confused? We said we would match any offer. Not 1 team made a respectable offer for us to match. So there are 29 teams out there giving him 0 offers and one team that liked him enough to trade for him and has said he is their priority, their only priority. But because we won't make a bad deal that is above market value he will leave to join a team that didn't make an offer for him? Or are you saying he will be so good that teams will be lining up 1 year from now to make him a day 1 priority like some of the names listed above by UD? Edit- in which case, in that unlikely event nobody could offer more than we could.

I think UFA Nerlens is a 12:01AM signing for someone. About 20 teams are one trade away from having max space 11 months from now, and I think based on how this summer has gone, he'd jump on a 4-year max (or near-max) from someone else instead of waiting for us to potentially pay him more. Maybe I'm forgetting somebody, but was Otto Porter Jr the only RFA to even get an offer sheet so far this summer?

If he takes the QO, I think that's a strong indicator of burned bridges and I would put the odds of him staying here after that at way lower than 50%. Is there really any precedent for a guy taking the QO and then staying? or taking the QO and extending later in the season?

Right now my attitude is pay whatever it takes to keep him and anything less than $20M, or even $25M, should be considered found money.

[Melonhead]

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

He can try.

Honestly I think the QO is a win/win.

We only pay him 4 mill meaning we can pick up some expiring contracts to save tax/cap or offer someone a fat one-year deal.

QO makes him play like it's a contract year. He has to play his ass off this year or he won't get paid much next year. If he gets injured, then we go after another center. If he plays well, then we can still offer him anything he wants. Only difference is that he's a UFA vs. an RFA. 4 million for a guy who is playing for his life sounds like a decent deal for me.

Plus I think he's going to really learn to like playing with Slanger. One year putting up 22ppg on easy lobs has got to get us some points with him.

He takes the QO and he's as good as gone. We're doing pipe dream again. He's not picking the Mavs as a UFA after how we treated him. Can't do this in NBA. Most leagues but not this one.

[Thebo]

Yes, it does make a lot of sense to throw max or near max at a guy who is barely able to give you 25 minute a night is justified... It is also justified to pay him that money when no other team will even contact his agent to discuss possible contract. Thirdly, it is justified to pay for hopes and potential and end up with Chandler Parsons of Memphis Grizzlies.

Mavs FO was unwilling to even contact Parsons after his contract was up last summer. This decision had a lot to do with his hobby of getting injuries. If Mavs are unwilling to throw money at Noel, they may have a reason other than to drive the price down.

[MavzMan]

Originally Posted by Bryan_Wilson

Why is he as good as gone, I'm confused? We said we would match any offer. Not 1 team made a respectable offer for us to match. So there are 29 teams out there giving him 0 offers and one team that liked him enough to trade for him and has said he is their priority, their only priority. But because we won't make a bad deal that is above market value he will leave to join a team that didn't make an offer for him? Or are you saying he will be so good that teams will be lining up 1 year from now to make him a day 1 priority like some of the names listed above by UD? Edit- in which case, in that unlikely event nobody could offer more than we could.

Originally Posted by Thebo

Yes, it does make a lot of sense to throw max or near max at a guy who is barely able to give you 25 minute a night is justified... It is also justified to pay him that money when no other team will even contact his agent to discuss possible contract. Thirdly, it is justified to pay for hopes and potential and end up with Chandler Parsons of Memphis Grizzlies.

Mavs FO was unwilling to even contact Parsons after his contract was up last summer. This decision had a lot to do with his hobby of getting injuries. If Mavs are unwilling to throw money at Noel, they may have a reason other than to drive the price down.

Free agency is the time of logic and big decisions that affect your franchise over the course of several seasons ... whether you sign someone to a max contract or if you let them walk. Everyone saying "pay the man what he wants" is thinking off emotion which is what you need come playoff time. Bryan_Wilson and Thebo above are making logical arguments for the good of the team.

I'm not going to say that Noel should be like Dirk and take less, but it is a little insulting to demand a max contract after having done nothing except having lots of injuries with flashes of potential vs a HoF player taking SIGNIFICANTLY less than he could in order to help improve his team. Notel needs to find that middle ground and then prove himself for when he enters his prime for a mega-max contract.

[Underdog]

There's no reason for the Mavs to up their offer or for Noel to sign the QO until there aren't any teams left that can offer Noel a contract... As long as teams like Phoenix are still lurking with the ability to clear out $20m in cap space, it's beneficial for both parties to wait.

[EricaLubarsky]

Originally Posted by Melonhead

He takes the QO and he's as good as gone. We're doing pipe dream again. He's not picking the Mavs as a UFA after how we treated him. Can't do this in NBA. Most leagues but not this one.

This is 100% conjecture and has zero evidence other than that radical Mavs pessimism.

I also don't know where in the heavens you got the idea that we're abusing Noel. His agent is playing hardball because he promised Noel big (perhaps max) money that simply wasn't there. It's a business.

Sheesh. If offering guys less than they thought they deserved was abusing players then every single team in the league would be huge violators. Did we abuse Curry by offering him only 3yrs/9mill when he felt like he was worth more? No one was offering more so it was a fair deal. He obviously wants to show that he can do more and get paid more later, but I think he was thankful for his contract.

Don't take Noel's desperate agent as gospel. Just because an agent speaks poorly of a team doesn't mean that the team is abusing a player.

[Bryan_Wilson]

Originally Posted by spreedom

I think UFA Nerlens is a 12:01AM signing for someone. About 20 teams are one trade away from having max space 11 months from now, and I think based on how this summer has gone, he'd jump on a 4-year max (or near-max) from someone else instead of waiting for us to potentially pay him more. Maybe I'm forgetting somebody, but was Otto Porter Jr the only RFA to even get an offer sheet so far this summer?

If he takes the QO, I think that's a strong indicator of burned bridges and I would put the odds of him staying here after that at way lower than 50%. Is there really any precedent for a guy taking the QO and then staying? or taking the QO and extending later in the season?

Right now my attitude is pay whatever it takes to keep him and anything less than $20M, or even $25M, should be considered found money.

No idea why a bridge would be burned between noel and dallas if they don't max him or near max him when not 1 team was/has been willing to do so. It's not like in baseball how a 1st rounder is attached to them, or in football where u can franchise them. He was not forced into a bad situation by Dallas and we haven't treated him poorly by any report coming out. He and his agent had the opp to negotiate the best deal possible. There is no burning of a bridge when the market didn't value him like he and his agent thought.

And I don't think there is precedent for it but that's not because players get disgruntled and leave it's because in the past u either were a max player or u weren't. And those that weren't got the best offers possible and brought them to their team to match. NN was not offered a max, or a near max it would seem... and his agent and he thought he would be. And he has not presented the best offer from another team for us to match because they thought waiting on the bigger dominoes to fall would open the market up for them. That is what it looks like anyway, and yet for some reason we are supposed to just set a new precedent apparently and just start paying our RFA's whatever they want regardless of what the market says otherwise a bridge is burned.

[SMC0007]

Originally Posted by Bryan_Wilson

No idea why a bridge would be burned between noel and dallas if they don't max him or near max him when not 1 team was/has been willing to do so. It's not like in baseball how a 1st rounder is attached to them, or in football where u can franchise them. He was not forced into a bad situation by Dallas and we haven't treated him poorly by any report coming out. He and his agent had the opp to negotiate the best deal possible. There is no burning of a bridge when the market didn't value him like he and his agent thought.

And I don't think there is precedent for it but that's not because players get disgruntled and leave it's because in the past u either were a max player or u weren't. And those that weren't got the best offers possible and brought them to their team to match. NN was not offered a max, or a near max it would seem... and his agent and he thought he would be. And he has not presented the best offer from another team for us to match because they thought waiting on the bigger dominoes to fall would open the market up for them. That is what it looks like anyway, and yet for some reason we are supposed to just set a new precedent apparently and just start paying our RFA's whatever they want regardless of what the market says otherwise a bridge is burned.

Well, on NBA2K you can...

[DevinHarriswillstart]

You don't bid against yourself in free agency. Only poorly run teams like the Nets would do something like that. Unless Phoenix gives him an offer of 18-20 million, then there is absolutely no way Noel gets that that kinda money. None. Right now my guess is 15-17 million, and that is probably being generous. The market has nearly dried up. It is what it is.

[texasbball]

I think there's a very good reason why he hasn't had any offers. If a team makes one, Dallas WILL match. That takes Noel off the table for years to come. Next year he's a UFA. And given Dallas's history, teams will argue, "Well, they didn't love you enough last year, come play with us!" If you're an opposing FO, and want any chance at getting NN for the next 4 or 5 years, don't do anything now. Let him take the QO. Go for him next year. That could be the thinking league wide.

[texasbball]

Oh, and hello. Been around a long time. Had another name. But haven't posted in so long, I think it's been removed.

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by texasbball

I think there's a very good reason why he hasn't had any offers. If a team makes one, Dallas WILL match. That takes Noel off the table for years to come. Next year he's a UFA. And given Dallas's history, teams will argue, "Well, they didn't love you enough last year, come play with us!" If you're an opposing FO, and want any chance at getting NN for the next 4 or 5 years, don't do anything now. Let him take the QO. Go for him next year. That could be the thinking league wide.

That could be the case, but there are a lot of free agents available next summer, and not a lot of money to go around... Like, there are over a dozen max-worthy UFAs ahead of Noel in the pecking order (including other centers like Cousins and Jordan), but only about half of the league will have cap space to offer a max deal. There's a decent chance he doesn't get a better offer next summer than what the Mavs have on the table right now.

[rmacomic]

Originally Posted by texasbball

Oh, and hello. Been around a long time. Had another name. But haven't posted in so long, I think it's been removed.

Are you Dr. Bio? Cause if you're Dr. Bio, I got some questions.

[mac222b]

Originally Posted by DevinHarriswillstart

You don't bid against yourself in free agency. Only poorly run teams like the Nets would do something like that. Unless Phoenix gives him an offer of 18-20 million, then there is absolutely no way Noel gets that that kinda money. None. Right now my guess is 15-17 million, and that is probably being generous. The market has nearly dried up. It is what it is.

Exactly this. That's the old Mavs way of doing business and thanks god it seems to have ceased. All signs point to a shift away from Cuban and less emotion based decisions. I agree he'll wind up getting closer to 15 maybe they'll thrown in a little extra to keep him happy. But they've seen Noel and those knees up close. I trust them not to make a decision that isn't well thought out or to considerably overpay

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by mac222b

Exactly this. That's the old Mavs way of doing business and thanks god it seems to have ceased. All signs point to a shift away from Cuban and less emotion based decisions. I agree he'll wind up getting closer to 15 maybe they'll thrown in a little extra to keep him happy. But they've seen Noel and those knees up close. I trust them not to make a decision that isn't well thought out or to considerably overpay

I don't mind this approach one bit. Can't rebuild if we're bidding against ourselves with FAs.

[Underdog]

Looks like Noel isn't the only restricted big holding out for a deal: Mason Plumlee and Nikola Mirotic still haven't received offers either.

[DevinHarriswillstart]

Originally Posted by Underdog

Looks like Noel isn't the only restricted big holding out for a deal: Mason Plumlee and Nikola Mirotic still haven't received offers either.

And Alex Len. They are all waiting for big offers that will almost certainly never come.

[sefant77]

Pretty sure Noels agent is waiting until its sure what the Suns are doing...if the Suns are off the market as last team (re-signing Len etc), then they will start to negociate back with the Mavs (my guess trying to get 20m a year)

[EricaLubarsky]

I don't understand why people (his agent, posters here, etc) even think he's worth 20mill.

Between his injury history and never showing himself to be a top-30 center in the league stat-wise, I dont see the 20-25 mill number. He's a good fit because of his defense which we need, but his rebounding isn't stupendous. I really like him, but stars/superstars get 20+. His draft position is about the only thing that supports him being a star and thus far hasn't lived up to stardom in more than brief flashes. He's about to be a fourth year player who has never played a full season and has been more hype than production.

I like him and he's certainly the best center still available who fits what we're doing, but he's basically Dampier before he got that fatty contract. Great role player that does one thing well (disrupt) who is aiming to get vastly overpaid

35th among centers in rebounding rate
30th among centers in value added
16th among centers in PER
31st among centers in defensive rebounding rate

[Preparing to be flamed]

[mac222b]

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

I don't understand why people (his agent, posters here, etc) even think he's worth 20mill.

Between his injury history and never showing himself to be a top-30 center in the league stat-wise, I dont see the 20-25 mill number. He's a good fit because of his defense which we need, but his rebounding isn't stupendous. I really like him, but stars/superstars get 20+. His draft position is about the only thing that supports him being a star and thus far hasn't lived up to stardom in more than brief flashes. He's about to be a fourth year player who has never played a full season and has been more hype than production.

I like him and he's certainly the best center still available who fits what we're doing, but he's basically Dampier before he got that fatty contract. Great role player that does one thing well (disrupt) who is aiming to get vastly overpaid

[Preparing to be flamed]

No, in a way your absolutely right in a sense. Except he's young and lots of players get paid on potential. Presumably we haven't seen his best. His actual worth is closer to 10-12m for his current level of production/injury history. But he has the potential to be a 20m type if he expands his game and stays healthy. Thusly he'll probably get around 15. Is he a young Tyson Chandler with burgeoning offensive skills or a glorified DeWayne Dedmon?

[DevinHarriswillstart]

Teams that have RFAs hold the cards, and it's one of the few advantages teams have in this league. Problem is that it is such a player oriented league that players/agents will still do anything possible to put things in their favor. If Noel takes then QO, then that is all on him. Mavs should absolutely NOT pay a player some ridiculous contract that the market didn't deem worth it. All it takes is one team, and no team has made an offer.

I've seen 5/85 being thrown around, and I think that is a sweet spot and very generous. 17 mil a year for 5 years is absolutely more than fair and one I'm sure the Mavs would make.

[rimrocker]

Originally Posted by mac222b

No, in a way your absolutely right in a sense. Except he's young and lots of players get paid on potential. Presumably we haven't seen his best.

Mavs have probably learned that lesson with Powell. Not comparing the two by any means but Powell's current contract situation is what can happen when you pay primarily for potential.

I'm guessing one of the goals is to find a way to net both Noel and Curry on long term deals by next off-season one way or another. Lack of market interest in Noel will certainly help in that effort.

[rmacomic]

Originally Posted by rmacomic

Are you Dr. Bio? Cause if you're Dr. Bio, I got some questions.

Dodging the question . . . further evidence that you are in fact Dr. Bio.