Predict the Mavs' record for the 2018-2019 season - Dallas-Mavs.com Forums

EricaLubarsky · 07-01-2018, 08:23 PM

Playoff teams that have gotten worse
Spurs
Thunder (well, maybe waiving Melo is addition by subtraction, but they aren't better)
Trailblazers (maybe-- could see them implode if they don't do anything. Mediocrity can damage a lockerroom)
Pelicans - they haven't gotten better and Davis is never healthy

Playoff teams that have gotten better
None

Non-playoff teams that have gotten better
Mavs
Lakers
Suns

3_Ball · 07-01-2018, 08:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

Playoff teams that have gotten worse
Spurs
Thunder (well, maybe waiving Melo is addition by subtraction, but they aren't better)
Trailblazers (maybe-- could see them implode if they don't do anything. Mediocrity can damage a lockerroom)
Pelicans - they haven't gotten better and Davis is never healthy

Playoff teams that have gotten better
None

Non-playoff teams that have gotten better
Mavs
Lakers
Suns

I can concur with the Pelicans. You can't really bet on a star player being injured, though.

If you're OKC, could this offseason have gone any better? You retain PG13 and Jerami Grant. Effin A! If I'm them. Plus, year 2 for PG & Russ to gel and the team to come together. I don't see how they got worse.

Spurs. Yes & No. They made the playoffs last year with Kawhi playing an ineffective 9 games for them. You could talk me into the idea of them regressing, though.

HOU looks to be worse. They lost Ariza & could lose Capela. Still don't see the Mavs passing the Rockets, unfortunately.

Lakers are pretty much penciled in for the playoffs this year. No telling who else is joining LaBron in LA, but you can bet more additions are coming.

DEN didn't get any worse. Locked up Jokic, resigned Barton. MPJ is a non-factor, but I can't see them winning less games this year without injury playing a role.

Mavs obviously have a chance. You're absolutely right we got better, but to go from 24 wins to 47 wins, 23 wins better? I don't know about that.

Dtownsfinest · 07-02-2018, 10:29 AM

I see 30-34 wins...I like the moves we've made but we are still one of the worst teams I. The West. Suns IMO, are a team full of young talent.

Melonhead · 07-02-2018, 10:45 AM

Only differences I see:

Spurs drop out.
Lakers go in.

Then itll be a 5 team battle for 7-8 seed:
Denver
Wolves
Mavs
Spurs
Grizz

Dtownsfinest · 07-02-2018, 03:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Melonhead

Only differences I see:

Spurs drop out.
Lakers go in.

Then itll be a 5 team battle for 7-8 seed:
Denver
Wolves
Mavs
Spurs
Grizz

Spurs didn't have Kwahi Leonard and still made the post season.

EricaLubarsky · 07-02-2018, 03:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dtownsfinest

Spurs didn't have Kwahi Leonard and still made the post season.

Yeah the only player that got PT that left is Joffrey Lauvergne and I see Lonnie Walker tearing it up Dwyane Wade style

sefant77 · 07-02-2018, 11:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

Yeah the only player that got PT that left is Joffrey Lauvergne and I see Lonnie Walker tearing it up Dwyane Wade style

SL debut with 3-16 from the field

The problem with the Spurs is going to be the age. Paul Gasol is 38 next week, his legs are going to finally fly away like they did with Dirk. Aldridge will be 33 in two weeks, he will be declining too. Danny Green 31...Manu didnt decide if he plays or not...

I can see the Spurs struggling with a 0.500 record like us. Lakers are going to play the long game with Kawhi, with Cousins joining the Warriors etc they arent in a hurry to compete this year

Dtownsfinest · 07-03-2018, 02:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

Yeah the only player that got PT that left is Joffrey Lauvergne and I see Lonnie Walker tearing it up Dwyane Wade style

Yeah I hated they got Lonnie Walker.....he coudln't have went to a better team.

Quote:

Originally Posted by 3_Ball

Yeah, and I'm not sure they weren't propped up by a few tanking teams also. They went 19-3 vs the Suns, Kings, Hawks, Mavs, Grizz, Magic & Bulls last season. I'm not sure they have the firepower to deal with those teams when they're not trying to tank. The Mavs, Grizzlies and Suns, for example.

If Houston didn't have Harden all year they would've missed the playoffs.......if any team other than the Warriors lost their best player like the Spurs did?They surely wouldn't be fighting for the 3rd seed. That's not to say that Spurs are a legit threat but they are a contender.

Melonhead · 07-03-2018, 03:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dtownsfinest

Spurs didn't have Kwahi Leonard and still made the post season.

As an 8 seed, as the oldest team in the league, and just
Got a year older.

3_Ball · 07-03-2018, 01:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Melonhead

As an 8 seed, as the oldest team in the league, and just
Got a year older.

Yeah, and I'm not sure they weren't propped up by a few tanking teams also. They went 19-3 vs the Suns, Kings, Hawks, Mavs, Grizz, Magic & Bulls last season. I'm not sure they have the firepower to deal with those teams when they're not trying to tank. The Mavs, Grizzlies and Suns, for example.

Dtownsfinest · 07-03-2018, 01:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Melonhead

As an 8 seed, as the oldest team in the league, and just
Got a year older.

They were the 7th seed and they were 2 wins away from being the 3rd seed. And they are the oldest team NOW. They would also get players for Kwahi Leonard or he's gonna play. As long as Popovich is there......I have a hard time seeing them suck.

sefant77 · 07-02-2018, 10:58 AM

I dont see the Grizz moving up. Conley coming back but he is 32. Parsons is still toast and their rookie is raw. They also may lose Evans.

NeedlesKane · 07-02-2018, 11:11 AM

Can we fill out the rest of our roster and see what the rest of the league does before having a poll? I feel like it's too soon. We're a far more exciting team already and definitely going to improve. However, it's too early to gauge it.

EricaLubarsky · 07-02-2018, 11:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NeedlesKane

Can we fill out the rest of our roster and see what the rest of the league does before having a poll? I feel like it's too soon. We're a far more exciting team already and definitely going to improve. However, it's too early to gauge it.

That's why I commented that it was probably premature and left the poll open for 45 days

I created the thread because this topic was dominating other threads

SMC0007 · 07-02-2018, 11:25 AM

Gaw
Lakers
Houston (with capela)
Jazz
Thunder

The rest is a toss up.

I think the twolves and pelecanos might claim the next 2 spots.

NeedlesKane · 07-02-2018, 11:32 AM

I just read the first post and the poll. Definitely premature.

tap2390 · 07-02-2018, 12:15 PM

I reserve the right to amend these up until starting day haha:

WEST
1) Golden State (62-20)
2) Houston (56-26)
3) OKC (50-32)
4) LA Lakers (49-31)
5) New Orleans (46-36)
6) Utah (46-36)
7) Minnesota (44-38)
8) Dallas (44-38)

EAST
1) Boston (60-22)
2) Philly (58-30)
3) Toronto (52-30)
4) Milwaukee (48-34)
5) Indiana (47-35)
6) Washington (45-37)
7) Miami (43-39)
8) Detroit (42-40)

EricaLubarsky · 07-02-2018, 01:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tap2390

I reserve the right to amend these up until starting day haha:

WEST
1) Golden State (62-20)
2) Houston (57-25)
3) OKC (50-32)
4) LA Lakers (49-31)
5) New Orleans (46-36)
6) Utah (46-36)
7) Minnesota (44-38)
8) Dallas (44-38)

EAST
1) Boston (60-22)
2) Philly (58-30)
3) Toronto (52-30)
4) Milwaukee (48-34)
5) Indiana (47-35)
6) Washington (45-37)
7) Miami (43-39)
8) Detroit (42-40)

I'd probably put us 9th or 10th, but I think that that's accurate. If Doncic is as promised, Smith takes the huge step forward that we know he can, Jordan clicks, and Barnes is solid, I could see us making a push for the 5th or 6th seed

If we take some time gelling or we just dont have the shooting to keep the offense crisp, then I could see 8-10th

If we have a major injury or chemistry issues (say, with Jordan), then I could see us hitting the lottery hard. Maybe even finishing top-5 and keeping the pick.

Most likely scenario I see is just missing the playoffs or barely squeaking in (8-10)

BigDog63 · 07-26-2018, 12:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tap2390

I reserve the right to amend these up until starting day haha:

WEST
1) Golden State (62-20)
2) Houston (56-26)
3) OKC (50-32)
4) LA Lakers (49-31)
5) New Orleans (46-36)
6) Utah (46-36)
7) Minnesota (44-38)
8) Dallas (44-38)

EAST
1) Boston (60-22)
2) Philly (58-30)
3) Toronto (52-30)
4) Milwaukee (48-34)
5) Indiana (47-35)
6) Washington (45-37)
7) Miami (43-39)
8) Detroit (42-40)

I was thinking 44 wins for Mavs too. Almost went with the higher bracket. Mavs could have won another 15+ games last year with their existing roster, had players been healthy (and they didn't enact the ensuing tank). So, you add Doncic and Jordan to that roster, and I think you get to 20+ win improvement pretty quickly.

I wouldn't be surprised if the Raptors do better than 52 wins. Are they not better with Kawhi?

3_Ball · 07-02-2018, 01:22 PM

I think Vegas would set our Over/Under for wins right now at 37.5

AO41 · 07-02-2018, 01:23 PM

The Mavs go over 50 wins and finish 51-31 and 5th in the West.

EricaLubarsky · 07-02-2018, 01:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AO41

The Mavs go over 50 wins and finish 51-31 and 5th in the West.

Bold! I like it.

AO41 · 07-02-2018, 01:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

Bold! I like it.

I was just thinking why cant we be this coming season's Celtics. They did a lot of their damage without their big name players and we now have a similar make up.

Good 2nd year player DSJ (Brown)
Good rookie who can do big things Doncic (Tatum)
Good veteran Barnes (Hortford)
Better center...good for our system DJ
3-D guy who hopefully sticks to that Wes (Smart)

with Dirk and a bunch of other veteran/ decent players.

Dtownsfinest · 07-02-2018, 03:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AO41

I was just thinking why cant we be this coming season's Celtics. They did a lot of their damage without their big name players and we now have a similar make up.

Good 2nd year player DSJ (Brown)
Good rookie who can do big things Doncic (Tatum)
Good veteran Barnes (Hortford)
Better center...good for our system DJ
3-D guy who hopefully sticks to that Wes (Smart)

with Dirk and a bunch of other veteran/ decent players.

So who's Kyrie Irving and when do we get to move out Ewst and beat up on everyone lol?

Budapest Maverick · 07-26-2018, 07:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AO41

The Mavs go over 50 wins and finish 51-31 and 5th in the West.

I'm with you, I'm not really a positive fan usually, but we basically added two All-Star level players, and yes, that's right, I said two.

DevinHarriswillstart · 07-26-2018, 02:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Budapest Maverick

I'm with you, I'm not really a positive fan usually, but we basically added two All-Star level players, and yes, that's right, I said two.

What have you done with the real BM?

What's interesting is that if Luka and Deandre really are all-star level players next season, then it really doesn't matter quite as much if Smith and Barnes aren't. I know your opinion on Barnes, but I think Smith is still the big wild card in the equation. If he takes that next step, then we're closer to being good than being bad again.

Budapest Maverick · 07-26-2018, 03:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DevinHarriswillstart

What have you done with the real BM?

What's interesting is that if Luka and Deandre really are all-star level players next season, then it really doesn't matter quite as much if Smith and Barnes aren't. I know your opinion on Barnes, but I think Smith is still the big wild card in the equation. If he takes that next step, then we're closer to being good than being bad again.

Yeah, we will never agree on Barnes (I don't want him extended), but Dennis has huge potential for sure, I hope the game will slow down for him a little and his shot will be more consistent. From Luka I expect a Simmons-esque season, and he is actually the main reason why I also expect DAJ to thrive here. His game will complement Jordan's abilities so much.

Bryan_Wilson · 08-11-2018, 01:47 PM

15 of our first 22 games are against playoff teams last year + lebron lakers. With so many new players playing high mins we have to assume the chemistry will not be there early. If we had an easier schedule to start off with to get time to gel I would say we could maybe push the 8th-9th(optimistically) seed but with this schedule I really think we could be in too big of a hole early to get more than 35-38 wins. Which would still be a nice jump from 24 wins.

DevinHarriswillstart · 08-11-2018, 01:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bryan_Wilson

15 of our first 22 games are against playoff teams last year + lebron lakers. With so many new players playing high mins we have to assume the chemistry will not be there early. If we had an easier schedule to start off with to get time to gel I would say we could maybe push the 8th-9th(optimistically) seed but with this schedule I really think we could be in too big of a hole early to get more than 35-38 wins. Which would still be a nice jump from 24 wins.

We can't make excuses every season about a tough schedule though. At some point, you have to just own it and win. The west will never be easy in the foreseeable future so the schedule will never be easy. Suck it up and win.

texasbball · 07-02-2018, 02:06 PM

I made this observation elsewhere: the whole continent of Europe should be a little nervous. Their best player, in their best league, regular season and post season MVP, now plays for the Mavs. Their. Best. Player. What if he's not NBA Top 50? Worse yet, what if he plays like a rookie? I don't care his age, Europe deemed him their best. Good luck kid. A continent is watching. --- With that said, I think he turns in a great season. Rookie of the year season. Mavs squeeze into the playoffs somewhere.

turin · 07-02-2018, 04:10 PM

42-40

NeedlesKane · 07-02-2018, 11:01 PM

Imagine when the 8th place Mavericks upset the 1st place Warriors!

Mavs#1Fan · 07-02-2018, 11:13 PM

40 wins, 10th place in the West

EricaLubarsky · 07-18-2018, 05:36 PM

More I think about it, the more I lean toward .350-.400 and finish 11th or 12th in the West.

We're going to be a lot better than last year, but man, the West is nuts.

MFFL · 07-18-2018, 06:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

More I think about it, the more I lean toward .350-.400 and finish 11th or 12th in the West.

We're going to be a lot better than last year, but man, the West is nuts.

Yeah. I thought the Spurs would take a step back but they are still better than us. And the Lakers, well Lebron dragged the Cavs to the Finals. So I expect they are better than us too.

Maybe we'll get luck and be at the extreme end of the lottery and get the 1st pick. Wouldn't THAT be something

SMC0007 · 08-14-2018, 09:43 AM

The optimist in me has a good feeling about what DAJ will do for games that we have been losing late because of a severe lack of defense and rebounding. The amount of games lost by 7 pts or less is a few stops and boards away. If/When we get a few more of those it leads to easier offense and now we have one more guy in Doncic who can create and can see all of the floor really well to help produce good looks.

EricaLubarsky · 08-14-2018, 09:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SMC0007

The optimist in me has a good feeling about what DAJ will do for games that we have been losing late because of a severe lack of defense and rebounding. The amount of games lost by 7 pts or less is a few stops and boards away. If/When we get a few more of those it leads to easier offense and now we have one more guy in Doncic who can create and can see all of the floor really well to help produce good looks.

Mavs had a differential of only -3.1. For a team that was 3rd worst in the league, that is unprecedented.

For reference
Suns -9.4
Bulls -7.1
Kings -7.0
Grizz -6.4
Hawks -5.4
Magic -4.8
Brooklyn -3.7
Knicks -3.5
Mavs -3.1

Mavs lost a LOT of games by only a couple of points. Adding Doncic and Jordan-- two guys who should have a positive impact should shove that even further positive.

SMC0007 · 08-14-2018, 10:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

Mavs had a differential of only -3.1. For a team that was 3rd worst in the league, that is unprecedented.

For reference
Suns -9.4
Bulls -7.1
Kings -7.0
Grizz -6.4
Hawks -5.4
Magic -4.8
Brooklyn -3.7
Knicks -3.5
Mavs -3.1

Mavs lost a LOT of games by only a couple of points. Adding Doncic and Jordan-- two guys who should have a positive impact should shove that even further positive.

No doubt. We should be able to keep more pressure on teams from the jump now and not end up in such a large hole.

I can't bring myself to say we will contend for a playoff spot but if these things happen we will:

-Powell plays like he did late season and has improved further.
-DAJ locks down tons of boards and brings that Chandler edge.
-Doncic plays with confidence and produces like he did for RM.
-DSJ raises his 3pt%, FT% and Assits/game
-WES gets back to what he does best.
-Barnes boosts his 3pt% and add a few more assists.

The only concern I have regarding Doncic is slight, I don't want to see him taking bad shots. Harden-like step back 3s. If it's late in the possession, fine but I want him attacking and creating to establish some respect from the league and refs. There is no easy way to earn that aside from putting your head down and going at it.

EricaLubarsky · 08-14-2018, 10:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SMC0007

I can't bring myself to say we will contend for a playoff spot but if these things happen we will:

-Powell plays like he did late season and has improved further.
-DAJ locks down tons of boards and brings that Chandler edge.
-Doncic plays with confidence and produces like he did for RM.
-DSJ raises his 3pt%, FT% and Assits/game
-WES gets back to what he does best.
-Barnes boosts his 3pt% and add a few more assists.

I'd say all of those things are likely to happen with Doncic playing extremely well being the least likely of a bunch of fairly likely predictions. Then again I thought Noel would have worked out and I predicted we'd be a hair of .500 last year. That prediction obviously didn't work out.

Quote:

The only concern I have regarding Doncic is slight, I don't want to see him taking bad shots. Harden-like step back 3s. If it's late in the possession, fine but I want him attacking and creating to establish some respect from the league and refs. There is no easy way to earn that aside from putting your head down and going at it.

Doncic's efficiency is going to be a huge deal that either holds him back from being truly elite or propels him to superstardom. I know Rick and the whole team will be working with him on mechanics, shot selection, etc., but I see that as one of the biggest things Doncic will need to improve. I want him to keep his confidence while improving his efficiency and consistency.

EricaLubarsky · 08-14-2018, 12:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SMC0007

-Powell plays like he did late season and has improved further.

No reason to think it won't. His PER, offensive winshare, defensive win share, and overall win share has gone up every single year

Quote:

-DAJ locks down tons of boards and brings that Chandler edge.

No reason to think he won't unless there is a personality conflict like Noel. Dude was 1st in the league in rebounding rate and has been for many years. 4th in offensive rebound rate and 1st in defensive rebound rate. Dude is a beast rebounding the ball and brings good passion. His defense is also solid despite not blocking shots. He was 25th in the league in defensive win shares (8th among centers)

Quote:

-Doncic plays with confidence and produces like he did for RM.

This is the biggest maybe. I personally think Doncic is the real deal, but he may shoot 30% from the field and 20% from three. He may prove me wrong, but the NBA is a tough league and he already didnt have the efficiency numbers in Europe. He'll be a star in time and will bring the confidence in spades, but his scoring efficiency will be low this year.

Quote:

-DSJ raises his 3pt%, FT% and Assits/game

One can only hope. His per36 of 18pts, 5reb, 6ast is pretty solid, but the biggest thing he needs to improve is his shooting numbers. I can see his assists go down with a secondary ballhandler/creator, but I'd like to see his shooting numbers and A/TO improve. I'm not super worried about APG. I'm also worried about how efficiently he'll play off the ball. Dude loves to have the ball and hasn't shown a lot of anything when it's not in his hands.

Quote:

-WES gets back to what he does best.

What Wes does best is shoot assisted jumpers. When receiving a pass from Smith or Barea, he shot over 40% from three. I don't expect him to be any better shooting it or defending it, but if he can get more catch-and-shoot threes, he should have a higher % from three.

His eFG when creating his own offense was terrible and there is no complete measure that includes TOs, but when we asked him to be Dwyane Wade and create his own offense, his numbers were absolutely terrible. I'd love it if he only shot stationary shots or cuts for an assisted layup this year.

Quote:

-Barnes boosts his 3pt% and add a few more assists.

that would be great. He just shot 43% from three in Africa and he's capable of 40% (the year he did, he shot 89% of his threes assisted). He's just better shooting threes on the catch-and-shoot. I'm also interested in the secondary drive that will hopefully open up when Doncic and Smith create defensive disruptions.