Zo and Dallas- LMF

[Chicago JK]

I enjoyed this post from Ron over at the Lone Mavs page. I doubt it goes down this way, but it is very well thought out.
************************************************** ***
Over the years, I have paid virtually no attention to the the frenzy about supposed outside free agent additions to the Mavs. Joe Smith, Rashard Lewis, Michael Redd, this year Kidd and J. O'Neal... there were probably others. None of them seemed very likely to me, so the hundreds of posts about them went on without me.
I think the Zo Mourning situation is a more likely one for a number of reasons. Most importantly, signing him to a more than one year contract is a major gamble, but mark seems willing to take it. It's a gamble for a number of reasons. 1) Will the supposed league-wide disability coverage (thought to be 80% of pay after some number of games missed) be available for him? My actuary hat thinks (yep, a thinking hat) that is at best questionable, because there is a pre-existing condition. 2) If he plays even one game with his new team, does that mean the two year waiting period to get a disabled player off the cap (and the luxury tax) starts all over again? 3) Zo is 33, and has largely missed 2 of the last 3 seasons. Even if the disease is in remission, what sort of player will he be? 4) Even before the kidney disease, Zo had a reputation has being a better regular season player than playoff one. His playoff FG%, FT%, scoring average and rebound average are all lower than his regular season average, altho he played about two and a half minutes more on average in the playoffs. His turnover average increased in the playoffs, by more than the increase in his minutes. He also fouled out more frequently in the playoffs than in the regular season. Finally, despite playing on some quite good teams, he has never appeared in the Finals, and only once (96-97) made it as far as the Mavs did last year. There are risks galore.

The apparent willingness of mark to take on those risks is not the only reason for thinking there is a good chance of the Mavs interesting Zo. It is hard to believe Zo would come back to play on a weak team. Of the strong teams in the league, the Mavs are the one that has the biggest need for a tough center. Surely the Lakers wouldn't be interested, and I doubt that the Nets or the Kings would be (even if he would come for a multi-year big exception). The Spurs, the Blazers, and perhaps the Wolves would be the only real contenders that might be willing to take the chance. His years with Riley means his style probably best fits the Spurs, but he most likely is not their #1 choice. He clearly is the Mavs' #1.

If Mourning is willing to come to the Mavs for a multi-year full big exception contract, the ball game should be over. Going more than 3-years apparently runs into the "age 36" problem. mark offers 3-years at the big exception, and Mourning becomes a Mav.

BUT I rather doubt that Mourning is going to be willing to risk his health for a three year contract that in total pays him far less than he earned last year for being sick. Would mark offer him four or five years? There's risk and then there is stupidity. I doubt it. So we are inevitably led to the issue of a sign and trade deal with Miami. (A three-team deal is also theoretically possible, but the possibilities there are literally almost endless - this post is long enough just with two teams.)

Let me add that there seems to be a belief that Riley is loyal to his long-time players, implying that he will "help" Zo find a good new home. The facts suggest - see PJ, Mash, and Tim Hardaway, even Bruce Bowen - that Riles just talks that way. He is a hard hearted businessman. With that note I will borrow from my response to Lester earlier today to analyze in some detail what Miami might do. (The repeat stuff starts and ends with an all caps word, and there is some editing from the original.)

MIAMI has 6 players under contract - both Butlers, Jones, Grant, Lampley, and Carter (assuming he was not a fool and didn't elect out yesterday). They also have have first round pick Wade, who counts for about $2.2 million until he reaches agreement for a contract that will begin at about $2.64 million. They have made Malik Allen a restricted free agent, so he counts for less than a million. As we learned last year, teams can change their minds and remove the "restricted" label. As we learned today, Allen can sign that tender offer today if he wants. Using patricia's salaries for the last few years, it should be possible to figure out how much the 6 vets will be paid. The total of the 7 or 8 players gives you the "hard" amount that Miami is obligated for (altho you also need to add another million or so for the 11-person requirement). Guess the salary cap for this year, and subtract and you have the possible cap room for Miami.

Miami should be one of the teams that will have a very interesting 15 days. If one of the decent free agents - either a PG or a center (let's say Kandiman or Nesty or even Riles old fav Howard) is willing to sign for the cap room, I think they do it and renounce everyone, including Mourning.

Their second possibility is to decide to try to carry over at least a portion of their cap room until next year - Carter come off next year, as would the upstairs Butler and Lampley. If that is their decision, then a sign and trade for Mourning should include only guys going into the last year of their contract AND free agents who are willing to sign a contract with their former team with only one year guaranteed.

The third Miami option (and I think least attractive) is to take back longer contracts in a sign and trade and perhaps spend the big exception this year too. Luxury tax problems could then lurk for many years.

There are a few sub-options - take back a player in a sign and trade who fits a need with a bargain longer term contract, and keep open the option of cap space next year but likely for an amount smaller than the big exception. That is not foolish because it gives them trade flexibility which the big exception does not. Or they could use the cap space this year to make a trade this YEAR.

Now we analyze the sign and trade possibilities with the Mavs. From the Mavs standpoint, I think they would be nuts to consider trading Finley, Dirk or Nash in a deal for Zo. I also think that the drafting of Wade indicates that Miami is going to be a hard nosed team built around Butler and Wade. It seems highly unlikely to me that Nick fits that environment - talented but troublesome and overpaid. So a monster deal that ships Grant with Zo in exchange for Nick and scraps just doesn't seem possible to me. Finally, I think it highly unlikely that Miami would want the big Raef contract - Grant and Jones are good players who are overpaid. It is not at all clear that Raef is even a good player (except on a bad team). Others can manufacture trades invloving the Mavs first five to Miami, but it doesn't seem likely to me.

By re-signing Zo, the Heat blow their cap space for this year, unless the trade is with a team under the cap (which the Mavs obviously are not). So let's examine how the Heat could retain their cap space for next year and trade Zo to the Mavs.

The obvious key ingredient is Avery Johnson. He has a one year contract, is an on-court leader, still an acceptable part-time PG, and perhaps the ideal person to help the supposed PG development of Wade. He also is grossly overpaid. patricia has him earning $5,445,600 next year. A straight AJ for Zo deal allows Zo to start at $6.36 million. To interest Miami, mark has to throw in $3 million dollars, so that AJ's effective cost to Miami is about $2.5 million. It is also going to take first round picks - let's say 2 over the next five years with Miami choosing the year - NO lottery protection? Enough?

Nope, I think Zo wants more than $6.36 to start. The Mavs have some other options up their sleeves. How about Najera with AJ - for the Latino population? Don't think so - he's a BYC (problem for the Mavs until late September) and has a long contract which likely overpays him. Riley won't bite

Trick #2. The Mavs have four free agents. FAQ#17 indicates that the Mavs can pay re-sign them for 20% more than the minimum. The Heat need to fill out their roster. Will the Wiz and Raja sign a three year contract for 20% over the minimum, with only the first year guaranteed and go off to Miami? If so, that is apparently legal (FAQ#74 says you can't use the little or the big exception to sign and trade a player). Because neither Bell nor Wiz are making the minimum, the Mavs can count the entire amount for trade purposes. Even if there is a BYC problem (not sure how that would work here), adding those two to the mix means the Zo can probably start at more than $8 million. That probably is enough to make Zo happy. I think the Mavs do it. Miami - 2 unresticted first rounders, a great character PG for $2.5 million, and two decent vets for only one year. They can roll over their cap space. Hmmmm!

Trick #3. If Mourning becomes the Mavs, Bradley is the guy who becomes totally expendible. For a 7-6 guy who blocks shots, he has a nice long term contract. patricia says it's for $3.5 next year. That means that Zo's contract could start for in excess of $10 million. Is Miami willing to severely restrict its cap space for next year for a first string of Bradley, Grant, Butler, Jones, and Wade with AJ getting lots of minutes. And two first rounders? And a mark broken promise. Hmmmm!

Final trick. Carter has been a pain, even if his contract does expire. Would the Mavs take Carter and Zo (starting at about $7.6) for the Bradley, AJ, Bell, and Wiz, 2 first rounders, and $3 million?

Bottom line. I think Zo to the Mavs is doable but expensive (even if the first 5 aren't involved). But the key question is whether Miami can attract a quality free agent with its cap room OR if a better trade for them - acceptable to Zo - can be found with a good team. If either occurs, the Mavs best deal probably doesn't measure up.

[Mandyahl]

i don't want zo at all if we have to pay $10 mil a year for him. terrible idea.

[Dooby]

I take Ron to task for this post. This is way, way too much for 'Zo given the circumstances.

Like I said at LMF:

The magic number for 'Zo and Miami is about 7M. If 'Zo walks, Miami is $7M under the cap. If Miami does a sign and trade, 'Zo salary must be within 15% of $7M or over so Miami can stay over the cap to have exceptions.

Maybe I'd get sticker shock walking into a Jaguar dealership, but I have a hard time giving up that much for a guy that hasn't played two of the last three years.

Frankly, I'd be embarassed if we sent a single draft pick to Miami for 'Zo or if we gave up much more than Avery. If we have to get over $7M, lets give 'em Grif and Walt with 1-year deals and 20% raises.

[Mandyahl]

no matter who we have to give them, i am not a big fan of paying zo over $7mil.
but for avery, griff, and walt i guess we might as well.

[Drbio]

I don't want Zo here unless it is for a one year (maybe give an option based on performance) low money contract. And there is no way in hell I would ever give up any of our draft picks.

[aexchange]

frankly if we trade for zo, i dont care how much we pay him as we'll be over the cap regardless. actually, i would almost prefer to trade for zo as it frees up our MLE for another big man.

would anybody love to see off-season additions of malone and zo?
even add kidd into the mix. envision with me.

kidd/NVE/marquis daniels
finley/ ??
dirk/howard/ ??
malone/lafrentz/najera
Zo/bradley/eschmeyer

[Mandyahl]

i am envisioning with you, aex, and i like what i see.

[u2sarajevo]

Originally posted by: aexchange
frankly if we trade for zo, i dont care how much we pay him as we'll be over the cap regardless. actually, i would almost prefer to trade for zo as it frees up our MLE for another big man.

would anybody love to see off-season additions of malone and zo?
even add kidd into the mix. envision with me.

kidd/NVE/marquis daniels
finley/ ??
dirk/howard/ ??
malone/lafrentz/najera
Zo/bradley/eschmeyer

You forgot Raja. He made me a believer during the Queens series.

[Mavs_Rule2003]

problem is that if RILEY is not signing ZO even if they are 7M under the salary cap, that says a lot. I am sure RIley knows something about ZO's health condition and his ability that MAVS doesnt know.

I am seriously in doubt with this player. Kidney problem is not a joke. I am sure Riley knows something aobut ZO's capability of this time and is not even interested to match our 4.9M~!! The other possible way Miami should have given him the 7M already and keep him.

Just dont know..if MAVS are digging hole for themselves..

On the other hand, Malone is not that kinda risk though. Even though we are not getting a center in him, but still his 20 PPG is not putting anyone in question that even if he is 40 he can still play the ball. But i have hated UTAH from the bottom of my heart..well..that wont count if he really can help MAVS. ANother things is that, if Maolne is not coming here may be he is going to LA may be (cos he needs championship!!) ANd LA also trying to get GP from bucks. if that happens..look out!!!

I am not sure about the free agents this year. Too much IF..BUT..OR..

COnfusing..

Only thing Mavs need to do is to re-sign RAJA and if possible keep WALT...

[FilthyFinMavs]

Originally posted by: Mavs_Rule2003
problem is that if RILEY is not signing ZO even if they are 7M under the salary cap, that says a lot. I am sure RIley knows something about ZO's health condition and his ability that MAVS doesnt know.

I am seriously in doubt with this player. Kidney problem is not a joke. I am sure Riley knows something aobut ZO's capability of this time and is not even interested to match our 4.9M~!! The other possible way Miami should have given him the 7M already and keep him.

Just dont know..if MAVS are digging hole for themselves..

On the other hand, Malone is not that kinda risk though. Even though we are not getting a center in him, but still his 20 PPG is not putting anyone in question that even if he is 40 he can still play the ball. But i have hated UTAH from the bottom of my heart..well..that wont count if he really can help MAVS. ANother things is that, if Maolne is not coming here may be he is going to LA may be (cos he needs championship!!) ANd LA also trying to get GP from bucks. if that happens..look out!!!

I am not sure about the free agents this year. Too much IF..BUT..OR..

COnfusing..

Only thing Mavs need to do is to re-sign RAJA and if possible keep WALT...

If Riley knew something about Mourning's health wouldn't he sign and trade him? IT is obvious that Miami wants to rebuild. You don't rebuild with a 33 year old center who is the best player on your team. He'll get rid of Eddie and Grant and the rebuilding will began. THe doctors have cleared for Mourning to play. That means as long as Mourning takes care of himself he will be alright. My only question is can he still perform like a top 5 center in this league. Thats not to hard to do.

[David]

I think the trade analysis VASTLY overates what it would take to get Zo or maybe it just goes far beyond what I would give up to bring in a person with his medical condition. I think Mark needs to tread lightly and not let what Zo used to be, cloud his judgement about what Zo is, now.

It reminds me of the time, when Mark recently bought the Mavs and just HAD to have Dennis Rodman to solve the Mavs rebounding problems. Nellie knew what they were getting into but got out of the way and let Mark learn his lesson. I hope Nellie's not doing the same thing here by going to Maui while Mark is in Miami persuing a pipe dream. It's not time for Mark to learn a lesson, it's time to bring in the RIGHT person to help the Mavs win NEXT year. Perhaps the more costly the lesson, the more it is burned into memory. I hope it's not the case this time.

[EVAN]

Originally posted by: aexchange
frankly if we trade for zo, i dont care how much we pay him as we'll be over the cap regardless. actually, i would almost prefer to trade for zo as it frees up our MLE for another big man.

would anybody love to see off-season additions of malone and zo?
even add kidd into the mix. envision with me.

kidd/NVE/marquis daniels
finley/ ??
dirk/howard/ ??
malone/lafrentz/najera
Zo/bradley/eschmeyer

this is what you call a dream lol! Great idea but this is impossible to acquire