From WSJOnline:
CAMPAIGN JOURNAL
By ALBERT R. HUNT
Al can be reached at
campaign.journal@wsj.com.
Edwards Has Best Chance
Of Winding Up on Ticket
John Edwards bowed out of the presidential race, but his prospects to be on the ticket this fall are as good as ever.
"Edwards stayed in the race long enough to help himself, but not too long to hurt himself," says James Carville, our Democratic political handicapper extraordinaire. Mr. Carville, who ran Bill Clinton's 1992 presidential campaign, spotted a John Kerry trend before most experts two and a half months ago.
The purpose of a running mate, he says, is not to win a state or solidify chemistry but "to add dimension [and] get someone who can help you." Sen. Kerry has tapped experienced Democratic political strategist and former corporate CEO James Johnson to head his vice-presidential search. So with the wisdom of the Ragin' Cajun, here's the March Carville-Hunt line:
JOHN EDWARDS -- 6 to 5: Even a little better than a month ago. Mr. Carville dismisses insiders' talk that there is no chemistry between these two senators, that they don't much like each other: "That's irrelevant. There's not negative chemistry, like Kennedy and Johnson or Reagan and Bush. Clinton and Gore didn't have any chemistry before Clinton picked him."
The North Carolina lawmaker compliments Sen. Kerry, Mr. Carville believes, bringing geographic, stylistic and even generational assets. "What Kerry needs is someone to defend him and help make his case," Mr. Carville says. "If you had to hire a lawyer to defend you, name a better one."
DICK GEPHARDT -- 5 to 1: He is generally regarded as the most prepared to be president, suggests Mr. Carville, and as a man of enormous personal and public probity. Although he didn't run an inspired race, he did make a graceful exit. He might help in the swing state of Missouri, although Mr. Carville notes that even there, he represented only one of nine congressional districts in the state.
BILL RICHARDSON -- 5 to 1: These odds are down a little from a month ago. He's a popular first-term governor of New Mexico, a former member of Congress with international experience as United Nations ambassador and a Hispanic. "He is a cross between Edwards and Gephardt," the ex-Clinton campaign chief says. "Not as articulate as Edwards or as qualified as Gephardt but gives some of both." One bit of advice Mr. Carville offers Gov. Richardson if he wants national exposure: "Go on a diet."
EVAN BAYH -- 7 to 1: A fresh face, an Edwards of the Midwest, where the 2004 election may be settled. The Indiana Democrat was governor before he was senator, and would bring some executive experience to a Kerry ticket. The downside, Mr. Carville says: "He cast a really bad vote [with many Republicans] for a tax cut and gave a disappointing keynote speech at the 1996 convention."
BOB GRAHAM – 7 to 1: These odds also have slipped a little. Although on paper he's the best choice, Mr. Carville says, "the most popular figure in the most controversial state in the country," a former governor and now a respected senator. Yet as with some other contenders, "there's a feeling it's just not going to happen," Mr. Carville adds.
HILLARY CLINTON – 15 to 1: The odds might be better for Sen. Clinton if Sen. Kerry needed to secure the liberal base; he doesn't, despite the third-party candidacy of Ralph Nader. Mr. Carville says, however, she would "bring instant money ... to both parties and probably bring a lot more women in." He doesn't see this occurring, though.
WILD CARDS: John McCain -- it would be exciting to pair two Vietnam heroes from opposite parties, but there are a lot of opposing votes to explain; Bill Nelson -- a former astronaut and the other Florida senator, but totally untested on the national scene; and Richard Daley -- from the Midwest and, Mr. Carville observes, "America's most successful mayor." True, but tough to imagine the veteran Chicago politician in a debate over national security with Dick Cheney.
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[A HEAVYWEIGHT: John Kerry's choice of James Johnson to run his vice-presidential selection process wins high praise. Mr. Johnson, who ran Walter Mondale's 1984 campaign, worked as a top White House aide and was chief executive of Fannie Mae, brings a wealth of experience, contacts and political savvy. The vetting process is likely to be rigorous, even for those candidates who ran this time; Mr. Johnson knows there are some areas where Republicans might find new vulnerabilities.