About the last 4 games...very weird stats.

[OutletPass]

Someone made a really interesting point about what's been going on in the last 4 games...since the Indy loss and I thought it deserved it's own thread.

Are the Mavs opponents shooting a lot more shots with the increased up tempo game ? And does a good result follow ?

Here's the last 4 games:

Mavs vs. Sacto.....Mavs get 96 shots....Sacto gets...88 shots. (win)
Mavs vs. Cleve.....Mavs get 90 shots....Cleve gets...90 shots. (win)
Mavs vs. Orl.........Mavs get 90 shots.....Orl gets .....90 shots. (win)
Mavs vs. Miami.....Mavs get 98 shots.....Mia gets.....92 shots. (loss)

Average...............Mavs get 93.5 shots....opp gets....90 shots. (3w-1L)

And the 4 games before that:

Mavs vs Indy........Mavs get 83 shots....Indy gets....84 shots. (loss)
Mavs vs. Philly......Mavs get 84 shots....Philly gets.. 66 shots. (loss)
Mavs vs. NJ..........Mavs get 85 shots....NJ gets........74 shots. (win)
Mavs vs. Bost.......Mavs get 85 shots....Bost gets....75 shots. (win)

Average...............Mavs get 84.25 shots...opp gets...74.75 shots. (2W-2L)

And the 4 games before that:
Mavs vs. Atl.........Mavs get 94 shots....Atl gets ........86 shots. (loss)
Mavs vs. Clips.....Mavs get 84 shots....Clips get........84 shots. (win)
Mavs vs Suns......Mavs get 97 shots....Suns get .......85 shots. (win)
Mavs vs Sac........Mavs get 105 shots...Sac gets.......85 shots. (Bad loss)

Average.............Mavs get 95 shots.....Opp gets......85 shots. (2W-2L)

And the 4 games before that:
Mavs vs. Suns...Mavs get 96 shots......Suns gets..... 69 shots. (win)
Mavs vs. Rox.....Mavs get 84 shots.......Rox gets.......80 shots. (loss)
Mavs vs. SA.......Mavs get 90 shots.......SA gets.........76 shots. (loss)
Mavs vs. Minny...Mavs get 108 shots....Minny gets....87 shots. (bad loss)

Average..............Mavs get 94.5 shots....opp gets.....78 shots (1W-3L)

And the 4 games before that:
Mavs vs. Seattle..Mavs get 84 shots....Seattle gets.....85 shots. (win)
Mavs vs. Port.......Mavs get 89 shots....Port gets .........80 shots. (win)
Mavs vs. SA.........Mavs get 78 shots....SA gets.............84 shots. (win)
Mavs vs. Clips.....Mavs get 87 shots.....Clips get ..........72 shots. (win)

Average..............Mavs get 84.5 shots....Opp gets ........80.25 shots (4W-0L)

To summarize, going from the most recent games:
Average...............Mavs get 93.5 shots....opp gets.......90 shots. (3w-1L).........+3.5 shots per game.
Average...............Mavs get 84.2 shots....opp gets.......74.7 shots. (2W-2L)......+9.5 shots per game.
Average..............Mavs get 95.0 shots.....Opp gets.......85 shots. (2W-2L).........+10 shots per game.
Average..............Mavs get 94.5 shots.....opp gets.......78 shots (1W-3L)..........+16.5 shots per game.
Average..............Mavs get 84.5 shots.....Opp gets ......80.25 shots (4W-0L).....+4.25 shots per game.

Funny how stats work...
The Mavs are 7-1 when the opponents are taking just 5 shots less per game.
But the Mavs are 5-7 when they take more than 5 shots more per game.

And it doesn't really look like the return to "small ball" or "medium ball" or "uptempo ball" is producing more shots...more efficiency, well maybe yes...but not more shots. But they're allowing many more shots than they have...and that's working to their advantage. They're 9-3 when allowing more than 80 shots and 3-5 when allowing less than 80 shots. Funny stuff !!!

I guess they just need to let their opponents shoot more !!!!

(OP says with his tongue in his cheek)

[DubOverdose]

I think its all about tempo for the Mavs. If they can get their opponent to play their style of basketball, then they will win. If teams are able to slow them down at EITHER end of the court they don't play as well. Also, the FG% for the Mavs has gone up with small ball so there are less chances for offensive rebounds, thus they don't have as many second chance attempts.

[PubaNWO]

So play even less defense???


i don't think so.....

[mavsman55]

Naturally, if an opponent misses a shot, they are going to try and get the offensive rebound. The more shots they miss, the more offensive rebounds they are going to get. The more offensive rebounds they get, the more shots they are going to put up. So naturally, the weaker offensive teams are going to have a few more shots than average.

But if the opponent is making shots on their first try instead of putting up 2 or 3 shots per possession, they are going to have more points, and less shot attempts. That stat is creative (good work by OP) but slightly misleading.

[Redbug]

I agree with dub...it's all about tempo....

When one or both of the rookies are in the game...they bring alot of energy...that seems to get the Big 3 energized and playing more of that uptempo Mavs game we all love....

It seems the last few games the Mavs have started better/faster....it's always better to play with the lead...DUH.....and if the other teams are behind they get away from walking it up the court...running the shot clock down...they start forcing more shots (some bad shots) thus allowing the Mavs running game to get in gear....

when the opponent's get a few buckets lead on the Mavs....they seem to slow it down...play a more relaxed pace instead of a frantic one...in the half court with the lead....opponents start working and getting LAYUP DRILLS and PUTBACKS a majority of the time...Mavs score but are still behind....Mavs get frustrated...stand around even more on defense...equals fouls and layups...early in the bonus FT's...it allows them to play to the Mavs weaknesses and the Mavs wear out trying to catch up....

[mavs_afroman]

I think it has a lot to do with sucking other teams into playing our tempo. When our shots come from the run n' gun game instead of half court offense in which we normally get more shots on offensive rebounding, the opposing team runs more and we're more efficient playing that style than most other teams.

[OutletPass]

Maybe that's right, Dub...let's explore...

Mavs vs Sacto.........Mavs shoot 54.2%.......Sacto shoots 47.7% (Win)
Mavs vs. Cle............Mavs shoot 54.4%.......Cle shoot......48.9%. (Win)
Mavs vs. Orl.............Mavs shoot 55.6%.......Orl shoots....35.2%. (win)
Mavs vs. Miami.........Mavs shoot 46.9%.......Mia shoots...44.6%. (loss)

And the 4 games before that:

Mavs vs Indy........Mavs shoot 49.4%....Indy shoots 41.7%....(loss)
Mavs vs. Philly......Mavs shoot 47.6%...Philly shoots 54.5%...(loss)
Mavs vs. NJ..........Mavs shoot 50.6%.....NJ shoots 51.4%....(win)
Mavs vs. Bost.......Mavs shoot 52.9%.....Bos shoots 50.7%....(win)

And the 4 games before that:
Mavs vs. Atl.........Mavs shoot 48.9%....Atl shoots 50% ....(loss)
Mavs vs. Clips.....Mavs shoot 45.2%....Clips shoot 36.9%..(win)
Mavs vs Suns......Mavs shoot 45.4%....Suns shoot 37.6%..(win)
Mavs vs Sac........Mavs shoot 41.0%.....Sac shoots 56.5%..(loss)


And the 4 games before that:
Mavs vs. Suns.....Mavs shoot 41.9%...Suns shoot 44.6%. ...(win)
Mavs vs. Rox......Mavs shoot 41.7%....Rox shoot 48.8%......(loss)
Mavs vs. SA.......Mavs shoot 37.8%.....SA shoots...50%........(loss)
Mavs vs. Minny...Mavs shoot 36.1%....Minny shoots 55.2%...(loss)

And the 4 games before that:
Mavs vs. Seattle...Mavs shoot 48.8%...Sea shoots 41.2%.....(Win)
Mavs vs. Port.......Mavs shoot 51.7%....Port shoots 40.0%....(win)
Mavs vs. SA.........Mavs shoot 52.6%...SA shoots ....42.9%...(win)
Mavs vs. Clits.......Mavs shoot 49.4%...Clips shoot ..41.7%...(win)

When the Mavs shoot better than 50% they're 7-0 in the last 20 games

And you're right, Dub...the shooting percentages are much, much better in the last few games.

Great call !!! your "'eyeballing" was proved to be right by the numbers.

While most people might think the Mavs are getting many more shots out of the "new" up tempo game...That's wrong...they're not. Total shots are about the same.

They're just shooting much better in that style. It's the old Mavs style !!!

And I love it !

[PubaNWO]

To beat the Mavs.....slow it down.....


Key for the Mavs to win......fast game, where both teams play rather well.

[grndmstr_c]

I worked up some points per posession stats for the last three games (Orl, Cle, Sac) and compared them to the season as a whole. Based on this way of looking at it, it seems that both the pace of the game, as well as the Mavs offensive efficiency have picked up recently, accounting for the scoring binge. Interestingly, opponents points per posession have remained almost identical.

.................................................. .......Season......Last 3 games.....vs same teams
Mavs points per 100 posessions......112.1........125.5................ ..113.3
Opp. points per 100 posessions.......104...........103.9.............. ....101
total posessions per game...............190.2........199.3............. .....197.4

[grndmstr_c]

I've edited into my previous post the weighted average statistics for the 5 meetings with Sac, Orl, and Cle this year prior to the recent three game swing. These stats place a little more of the emphasis back on offensive efficiency as the difference since the pace of the previous games against those teams was pretty close to what we've seen the last few games. Offensive efficiency, however, was pretty close to the season average, whereas, as previously noted, it's been off the charts dating back to the Orlando game.

[OutletPass]

Orlando is currently ........19-58. And T-Mac didn't play.
Cleveland is currently...... 32-43.
Sacto is currently .............52-23. And Miller and BJax didn't play.

That's...............................103-124. With some essential players out.

I just wonder how these stats would look if those games had been against the Lakers and Detroit...and Milwaukee.

That would be..................53-23.
and...................................49-26.
and...................................38-38.
That's................................130 - 87...with most of them healthy.
Just a thought.

But I'll say it again:
I REALLY appreciate the in depth analysis from GrndmstrC (pure greatness), ChumDawg (also greatness) and the new Dubness. I gotta give huge props again to GrndmstrC....!!!!!

I give raw weird data...he finds the pearls...Ok, OP is a "volume" stater. I admit it.

Great stuff guys...it sure beats one sentence posts from outer space.

We'll see how things work out !!

[chumdawg]

Very, very interesting reading here. This small sample definitely suggests that the offensive efficiency is much improved. It would be interesting to explore that further. Has there been a significant change in shot distribution, perhaps? The Big Three getting more shots than before? Certain someones getting less? More threes being fired, maybe?

I don't have the time just now to check into these, but if someone does it would be interesting.

Whatever the reason, let's hope the trend continues!

I also agree that generally it is not in an opponent's best interest to try to run with the Movin' Mavs. And surely when Nash's and Dirk's hair is flying and when we are playing that wild-ass, hard-running, stop-and-pop-a-three, RECKLESS YET EFFICIENT style...then the opponents can't help but get dragged into it, too.

Run with the Mavs at your own peril, NBA.

[OutletPass]

HMM....More 3's....?


Mavs vs Sac................8-20. (win)
Mavs vs. Cle................6-10. (win)
Mavs vs. Orl................6-12. (win)
Mavs vs. mia...............2-11. (loss)
Mavs vs indy...............4-10. (loss)
Mavs vs. philly.............7-18. (loss)
Mavs vs. NJ..................5-10 (win)
Mavs vs. Boston..........5-12 (win)
Mavs vs. Atl.................8-19 (loss)
Mavs vs. Clips..............4-11 (win)
Mavs vs. Suns..............6-14 (win)
Mavs vs. Rox...............8-18 (loss)
Mavs vs. Sa..................3-11 (loss)
Mavs vs. minny.............2-10 (loss)

Those are the stats.

[OutletPass]

Now the Mavs shot 61%....incredible.

[grndmstr_c]

After tonight, the Mavs are now up to 126.8 points per 100 posessions since the Orlando game.

[Murphy3]

Originally posted by: chumdawg
Very, very interesting reading here. This small sample definitely suggests that the offensive efficiency is much improved. It would be interesting to explore that further. Has there been a significant change in shot distribution, perhaps? The Big Three getting more shots than before? Certain someones getting less? More threes being fired, maybe?

I don't have the time just now to check into these, but if someone does it would be interesting.

Whatever the reason, let's hope the trend continues!

I also agree that generally it is not in an opponent's best interest to try to run with the Movin' Mavs. And surely when Nash's and Dirk's hair is flying and when we are playing that wild-ass, hard-running, stop-and-pop-a-three, RECKLESS YET EFFICIENT style...then the opponents can't help but get dragged into it, too.

Run with the Mavs at your own peril, NBA.

I would think that much of it has to do with more of the offense running through the big 3....plus, you're right. The Mavs opponents have been willing to get the ball up and down the court as quick as possible. But, to be honest, it's not just about the opponents taking quick shots or the Mavs scoring alot on the break. It's about the Mavs maximizing their possessions by putting the ball in the hands of players that are more likely to score or dish out an assist. The offense is rarely running through Walker these days.

Plus, Daniels, Howard, and Jamison compliment the Big three so nicely. All three can cut to the bucket when any of the big three are doubled. Jamison and Howard have shown the ability to clean up on the glass. Daniels has shown the ability to create on his own and to post up.

[OutletPass]

Totally right...

If you look at points per shot with the 7 guys with minutes, here's the order:

Nash
Jamison
Dirk
Fin
Daniels
Howard
Walker