Let's be honest...who's going to be traded.

[OutletPass]

Since we seem to be throwing around about a million trade scenarios, I'd like to focus the specualtion and get opinions. A lot of the specualtions seems to be based on a first round exit, but let's explore the other alternatives.

If the Mavs lose in the first round, who do you think is most likely to go ?

If the Mavs pull an upset in the first and then flop in the 2nd round, who do you think is most likely to go ?

If the Mavs kick butt in the 1st and 2nd, and then lose in the WCF, does anyone go over the summer...or at the deadline ?

I know this doesn't address sweeps or hard fought 7 games series...but I just want to open it up for general discusssion. Take your best shot.

And don't forget about Nellie and the coaching staff....structure your answers any way that you'd like.

What I'm really wondering is whether evryone buys the ESPN wisdom that the team will be completely blown apart by a first round humiliation...or if the real moves that may come are going to happen regardless of the playoff outcome....I know that's a very open ended question, but I'm just wondering how everyone is looking at this idea.

[Max Power]

Last year the Mavs went to the WCF with a 60 win team and still made wholesale changes because management did not feel like they could win a championship with those players. Even if the Mavs match the WCF plateau again (no chance for the 60 wins obviously) then changes will still be made because the team is no closer to winning a championship (Jamison for NVE was a nice upgrade but Jamison was not the missing cog).

So one, two, or even three of the following players will be offered to acquire that big man who plays defense. Walker would be the choice of the fans and probably Walker himself but he does not have many fans among GMs (who else made an offer?) so another of the two might be preferred. Jamison is a nice role player who does not clog the offense and is a good rebounder. Unfortunately he doesn't complement the big 2 on defense, only on offense. Jamison's contract will be a BIG problem. Not many GMs are going to want a max contract player who is not a superstar. Finley is the third player who will be dangled. I don't think the Mavs WANT to trade Finley but teams like Chicago are going to want a veteran leader to help groom the young players. He might be expensive but the veteran stability and professionalism will be worth it to several clubs.

Delk, Fortson, and Najera are all salaries to balance a trade. I don't think the Mavs care about any of them.

And I think Nellie sticks around for another year and grooms Avery for the top spot. I'll just have to grit my teeth another year.

[chumdawg]

Good idea for discussion. In my opinion, the strategy won't be any different this year than it was last year.

Last year they appeared to make an effort, first and foremost, to get a good big man. They targeted Zo. They made an offer to Miller, didn't they? They seem to have been interested in Rasheed at the deadline, even. They may have been misguided in their efforts, or it could be the case that the right deal just wasn't out there, but I think it was clear that they wanted a good big man.

It was also clear that no one outside the Big Three was untouchable. Nick and Raef were major contributors...and were sent packing.

So barring a trip to the NBA Finals, I bet the same strategy is in place.

Now, outside of Walker I'm not sure if what they have to offer is worth too much to anybody else. Jamison's contract is a drag. The rookies have a lot of promise, though, so I think if there's any big trade to be made, it's going to have to include one of them to sweeten the pot for the other team.

Daniels I think they really want to keep. So I see the most likely scenario as a package that starts with Walker and Howard and possibly includes the likes of Delk or Fortson or other filler.

I think the coaching staff remains intact, with the likely inclusion of AJ to be groomed as Nellie's successor.

I could see how an absolute playoff disaster could change things, but I don't think that's a realistic scenario. It would take a sweep or five-game loss in the first round to qualify as absolute disaster, based on the seeding they'll be stuck with. I think they'll make it to six games at least. And if they can as much as win their first-round series, it will probably be seen as a decent effort no matter what happens in the second round, based on who they would be playing (with the possible exception of a second-round whipping at the hands of the Tpups).

Another factor could be the moves, if any, made by other teams. It got kinda hot for the Mavs last year when they were standing still while the rest of the West was getting themselves better. If those moves hadn't happened, ours might not have either.

[grndmstr_c]

I tend to agree that it's going to take a monumental embarrasment in the playoffs to lead to anything approaching a blowup of team personnel. There's loads of talk about Nellie getting booted, but honestly, for all his faults it's by no means a sure thing that there will be any better coaching options out there to replace him, and a step sideways in the coaching department would be a step back, IMO. Maybe I'm projecting too much, but I would think that if the Mavs went out and lost a tightly contested first round series against the Spurs or Lakers in which Bradley got PT that Mark wouldn't get too trigger happy.

As for players, you gotta think Walker's out regardless. His trade value won't be through the roof, but I do believe the Mavs should expect to get something along the lines of Chandler/AD for him. If we started talking about throwing in Josh on a Walker trade the return's got to be better than those two.

As for the bench/IL guys like Fortson, TAW, Delk, etc., no reason to make those guys a focus. None of them really have much court or trade value, so if they can be used as filler, fine. If not, keep 'em around on the end of the bench and give them a towel to wave when the rotation players are steamrolling their opponents.

I don't see Finley getting traded. He's too old and his contract's too big. More than that, though, he's still very valuable to the Mavs as a player. If it were my call, I can pretty much guarantee I'd want more for him than another team would be willing to give up.

I also expect AJ to be here next year. He's been too good a fit, too good a citizen for me to think that anybody in a decision making position would be in a hurry to deal him. Also, as with Finley, his contract is too big and his game too narrow for me to think that anybody in a decision making position with another team would be salivating too heavily at the thought of acquiring him.

What it takes to resign Daniels may ulimately be one of the important wild cards of the offseason. The options for filling out the roster next year get cut down a bit if it takes a sizeable chunk of the MLE to keep Marquis. On the other hand, if a couple years at the LLE would get it done (I want NO part of a second year player option, because IMO that would just be begging to lose him after next season to an Arenas type deal - I'd rather dip into the MLE and make sure he was locked up until we got Bird rights), that gives the team a lot of flexibility with the MLE: go after another guard like Barry and use the Walker trade to shore up the frontcourt; pursue a Foyle or Tag type for defense and rebounding at the 5; etc..

[dalmations202]

Regardless of whether they win the championship or lose in the first round, this is what I expect in regards to players.

Best not resigned, or resigned in a "sign and trade" like Popeye Jones.
Scott Williams retires.
Core not touched - Big 3, Rookies, Jamison, Bradley...although they will listen to all trade ideas.
Walker is almost home in Chicago as we speak, IMO.
Delk is trade bait/filler.
Fortson is trade bait/filler.
Najera they want to keep, but will consider moving him, if the "right" deal is available.
TAW they can't move. Steppheson we will finally get to see "playing summer ball".

My expected moves:
(Walker/Delk for Chandler/ADavis or Williams and Robinson - TAG for the MLE) or
(Walker/Delk for NVE/Foyle(SNT) - Camby or Anderson etc for the MLE)
Nash and Daniels resigned

The difference in "blown out in the first round" to "win it all" comes in the coaching ranks.
If they are "blown out in the first round", I would expect Mark to blow up the coaching staff, and get a new set of coaches.
If they at least get well into the second round, I would expect Nellie to groom Avery next year, and then move upstairs (Maui) the year after.

[kingrex]

Don't have too much more to add than what most have already said here. I agree that a "blow-up" of the team won't occur unless the Mavs just look pathetic in the playoffs.

I also agree that in the off-season the search of that elusive "big man" will begin again. Unlike most of you, however, I think Cuban and the Front Office is willing to trade just about anybody for the right player. If there is one thing this ownership has shown is a willingness to make blockbuster trades.

In my opinion, this coaching staff should remain intact for atleast one more year. I realize for some of you that is one year too many, but I would give Nellie at least one off-season with this version of the Mavs before determining if he has done all he can and moving in another direction.

So, I predict, barring a monumental embarrassment in the playoffs, this team will remain fundamentally intact next season, unless a legitimate "big man" can be traded for.