Chad Ford Chat..and my question

[Drbio]

Chad Ford is doing a realtime chat right now regarding the draft. I submitted the following question which he posted and answered. Check it out if you get the chance.


Jess (Waco, TX): Are the Mavericks trying to move up in the draft? I have heard many rumors involving high picks at Charlotte, Orlando and Cleveland and even some that would allow the Mavs to take Pavel Podkolzine at #10. Any word?

Chad Ford: (1:41 PM ET ) The Mavs would love to get their hands on Pavel and are willing to give up a veteran to get him. I wouldn't be surprised to see something like a Josh Howard for the No. 10 swap with Cleveland. Donnie Nelson loved Pavel when he saw him in Italy. He'd be a great fit in Dallas and a guy like Howard would fit the Cavs needs better.

[Drbio]

I'm not sure I want to give up a guy with a high ceiling like Howard for a project, but there it is.......your thoughts?

[Jeremiah]

Since I haven't seen Pavel play, move, or workout, my thoughts would be to trust Donnie's instincts. If Donnie's instincts say that in 5 years or less, Pavel will be a 20/10 guy, I'd do it. And if we held onto him for 5 years and he at least averaged 14/7, I'd still do it. If Donnie's instincts say he MIGHT be those things in 5 years or less, or he MIGHT be Potapenko or less no matter how hard he tries, I skip it. I know there are no sure things, but if he can watch him and speculate that Pavel should be an all star, then I want him.

[Chicago JK]

If you have ESPN motion downloaded on your computer you can watch some highlights of some of the top prospects in the draft.

Watching the video you can see how big Pavel is but he is probably a couple of years away from contributing. Interesting gamble though.

[PepperTheMavsFan41]

Id rather do the rumored

Battie
Wags
#10

for

Jamison.

[grndmstr_c]

You know, I don't often consider straight trades involving JHo, but all things considered I'd bet his trade value is second only to Dirk on the Mavs. You have to wonder if we couldn't turn him into a high pick. I mean, if you polled GM's around the league I wouldn't be surprised if most of them said that if they had a do-over on last year's draft JHo could have been a Top 10 pick in one of the better draft classes in recent memory. And if I'm Clevleand I'm ecstatic to get a SF like JHo to put in between LeBron and Boozer.

[ddh33]

That's a big chance that someone might say you have to take. Personally, I would rather deal almost anyone else. I believe that Howard is a key figure in Dallas for a long time.

[grndmstr_c]

I will say this, though. I don't make this trade unless/until the 9th pick has been made and Pavel is still on the board (I'm assuming, of course, that Pavel is the only guy that might last that long who would be worth giving up JHo for).

[LRB]

Well there is no guarrantee that Pavel will still be on the board at #10, so I don't know if I trade Josh not knowing for sure if we can get our man. Even if we get Pavel, it's a big gamble if he will be as good as Howard. Howard will contribute this year on for sure. Would Pavel give us anything for at least 2 years? And anyone remember Chris "the best running big man in the NBA" Antsy?

I'd have to pass on this one.

[ddh33]

Another question answered about the Mavs. By the way, DA has said this same sort of thing several times. He doesn't expect a ton of movement.


Annette (Daisy, OK): David, what is the next move in Dallas? More role players or trying to exchange two stars for a bigger one?

David Aldridge: (2:19 PM ET ) You know, Annette, I don't think the Mavs are going to be especially active. They know the Bobcats aren't going to take Antoine Walker off their books, so he could be trade bait (one year left on his deal). Other than that, though, I don't know that they're going to do a whole lot. I know that Mark Cuban is not going to fire Nellie and let him skate on the final couple of years of his contract, so it doesn't make sense that they'd blow up a team that Nellie likes so much.

[bcrav4]

If we can't get Pavel....Ramos should still be around.

[madape]

I think we're overvaluing Howard just a tad. His ceiling is not THAT high. I think he'll be a nice player in the league for several years. But I think the ceiling of a 7'5" mobile 19 year old like Pavel is a little bit higher, don't you?

Let's realistically look at what Howard is: He's not a shut down defender like he's made out to be. He's not a scorer. His perimeter offensive game isn't that great. He's got better than average all around skills and he's a hell of a rebounder for his position. But a superstar he is not. If he stays, he'll be regular rotation guy. That's all.

Isn't it imperative that we aquire a true center to complement Dirk, Nash, and Finley? If we can get a guy like that for a rotation guy like Howard, I don't think there should be any debate.

Admittedly, I don't know much about Pavel. I've never seen him play. All I know is what I've read. But if Donnie is as high on him as Ford claims he is, I think this trade would be great for the Mavs.

[Dirkenstien]

I think this trade would be great as well, however I think that if we're going to try to acquire Pavel then we'll have to get on the board before the number 10...he should be gone by then. If there is no other spot we can slide into then I would wait to see if Pavel is on the board after 9 and then make a swap of Howard for the 10 stright up..no questions asked.

[kg_veteran]

As to the issue of knowing whether Pavel is available at No. 10, clearly you wait until it's Cleveland's turn to pick before agreeing to the trade. If he's still on the board, then you can know for certain what you're getting with the pick.

That said, if Cleveland is willing to deal you Pavel for Howard, you jump all over it. I really like Josh Howard, but let's be realistic. He's a nice prospect at SF who has the potential to be a very good defender and rebounder and possibly a decent scorer if he can ever learn to handle the ball and hit a jumper consistently. It's MUCH easier to find a small forward to fill his role than it is to find a center who might be great. Sure, Pavel might be a bust, but then again he might not. With his confirmed size and alleged mobility and athleticism, you make this deal and don't look back.

[ddh33]

Since it's not my money, I would rather trade for more of Cleveland's bad contracts in exchange for Walker and that pick. That way Howard could stay a Mav.

The problem is that Cleveland doesn't have any really bad contracts.

[kg_veteran]

The real problem is that they're not interested in Walker.

You give up a nice young SF any day of the week to get your hands on a legit center prospect. Although Howard is the "best defender" at the SF spot that we have, I suspect that a rotation of Jamison, Finley, and Daniels at the wing spots would suffice just fine.

[Drbio]

Originally posted by: kg_veteran
The real problem is that they're not interested in Walker.

You give up a nice young SF any day of the week to get your hands on a legit center prospect. Although Howard is the "best defender" at the SF spot that we have, I suspect that a rotation of Jamison, Finley, and Daniels at the wing spots would suffice just fine.

Caertainly so, but I am not sold on Pavel just yet. I don't mind making that trade and it does seem to help both teams >IF< Pavel is half the hype.

[Murphy3]

Originally posted by: madape
I think we're overvaluing Howard just a tad. His ceiling is not THAT high. I think he'll be a nice player in the league for several years. But I think the ceiling of a 7'5" mobile 19 year old like Pavel is a little bit higher, don't you?

Let's realistically look at what Howard is: He's not a shut down defender like he's made out to be. He's not a scorer. His perimeter offensive game isn't that great. He's got better than average all around skills and he's a hell of a rebounder for his position. But a superstar he is not. If he stays, he'll be regular rotation guy. That's all.

Isn't it imperative that we aquire a true center to complement Dirk, Nash, and Finley? If we can get a guy like that for a rotation guy like Howard, I don't think there should be any debate.

Admittedly, I don't know much about Pavel. I've never seen him play. All I know is what I've read. But if Donnie is as high on him as Ford claims he is, I think this trade would be great for the Mavs.

You're right, Madape.

The biggest reason why I'd hate to lose Howard is that they simply don't have many players with as much athleticism as he has.
But, that doesn't mean that I wouldn't make the deal.

[uberfan]

Originally posted by: grndmstr_c
I will say this, though. I don't make this trade unless/until the 9th pick has been made and Pavel is still on the board (I'm assuming, of course, that Pavel is the only guy that might last that long who would be worth giving up JHo for).

If you think you need to move higher to get the guy you want, it is easier to move up starting from the #10 than it is with no number one at all.

For example, if you think your guy that will make a difference is the number 1 or 2 pick, would you trade Josh and say, AJ, to move into the top two spots?

I am not saying that is the move to make, but it may be what it takes to move to that far up.

[Nash13]

Wasn't it reported that if Pavel wasn't a top 5 pick, he would go back to Europe?

[MavsFanFinley]

Wasn't it reported that if Pavel wasn't a top 5 pick, he would go back to Europe?

(reported by KG on June 2nd)...Just a note on the Sabonis pupil that has been discussed a lot lately. I read a quote from the Arizona Republic today indicating that Andriuskevicius wants to stay in Europe for another year and his agent is saying that he has to be a top-five pick to stay in the draft. So if you want him, you gotta get into the top 5, apparently...

[dashthemavfan13]

You are talking about Martynas Andriuskevicius, and he has pulled out of the draft.

[jayC]

Howard is nice but hes just a swing player. Hes a tayshaun prince clone minus the jumper. Pavel would be a great pick up. If the mavs were able to pick up a center without trading any core players that would be incredible. Look as much as everyone's affinity for Josh Howard, you just don't trade small for big. So if Cleveland came calling hell yeah.

The evil empire known as ESPN the magazine has Pavel as the big man with the most potential. Then we could pawn our spare parts like finley, walker and jamison into a veteran big man or a superstar.

[ddh33]

I know there is a lot o hype around Pavel. That's fine and good. He seems like a good kid.

But everyone remember that there was once a lot of hype around Shawn Bradley. I mean, you can talk about ceilings and potential. That's fine. But that doesn't mean anything. I feel like Howard is a known commodity who will only continue to improve. He is easy to project. Pavel is not. Sure, he could be Yao or Shaq, but he could be Bradley or Muresan too.

I would much rather not give up one of the pieces that I believe this team needs. Give up a luxury and take back some of Cleveland's bad contracts first. For instance, I think that Newble, Ollie, and #10 for either Jamison or Walker works. There would be an exception involved too...

[grndmstr_c]

ddh, I just don't see how you can say that Antawn is a luxury but that JHo is a piece that the team needs. Both play the SF position, both have shown the ability to play it at a high level - but Antawn is the more proven and consistent of the two. I like JHo's potential, especially on D, but overall I don't see any reason to belive that he'll ever be a superior player to AJ, and isn't even equal to him yet if you ask me.

I think it's always hard trading away a young guy who's still developing because of the fear that he'll turn out to be the next big thing, but the reality is that more often than not these promising guys turn out to be good players, no more, no less. I haven't seen Pavel play so I really have no idea whether he's worth JHo, or even Shawn for that matter, but if you give up AJ for him you're giving away a very good, proven player for a guy who hasn't shown anything, whereas with JHo all you're giving up on is a guy who scored well on his first test. I'd sooner take the latter route.

[aexchange]

all this mess is coming from chad ford.

ford has never been right about ANYTHING. how long have we been trying to trade michael finley now? [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-wink.gif[/img] and why would donnie publicly tip his hand if he did want pavel? bank this: the mavs have no interest in pavel and don't want him. its just a silly smokescreen.

emeka, emeka, emeka .... the mavs center position is now waiting for you.

[jacktruth]

From NBAdraft.net:

Pavel Podkolzine
Birthdate: 1/15/85
NBA Position: Center
Ht: 7-5
Wt: 303
Int Team: Metis Varese
Hometown: Novosibirsk, Russia ULEB

N.T.Stats

NBA Comparison: Gheorghe Muresan (more athletic)

European Perspective:

A player who developed his agility in Italy to the point where early this year he was considered a future top 5 pick but not for a few seasons. The process has been sped up it appears... Enormous. with the classic physical structure of the long Russians... Definitely has good coordination and the good movements... Offensively he plays very timidly. With the ball he doesn't take any initiative... Does not seem to have great touch and has a long ways to go figuring out post moves ... Imposing presence, he's dangerous to take the basketball at.... Defensively does not have a good feeling for the game or sense of the position... Very raw. But he demonstrates good reactions to the game at a young age.

The next big thing? Literally a freak of nature, an enormous player but at the same time mobile and coordinated...Will be one of the first choices when he decides to enter the draft... Had a very impressive workout in Chicago in front of many scouts and GM's which will help him ... The NBA waits for him with open arms ... He has the upside to be a bigtime impact player but there are a lot of doubts about whether he can fulfill his vast potential .... The doubts mainly surround his physical condition, with the growth hormone problem, and also his work ethic which for now appears suspect .... There have been a lot of articles in local papers in Varese questioning his work ethic ... There have been a lot of questions about him last year , why coach didn't Beugnot use him last year? ... After Beugnot, coach Ruscono (Dodo) resigned and was very hard with him, inflexable, Pavel struggled to get time .... Now the team has Cadeo as it's coach, who gives more flexability and it appeared Pavel would see more action, but it's the same story, not much playing time for Pavel... So he has been through three coaches in a year, not exactly the type of stability that makes for an atmosphere of development .... When starting center Callahan was out, Pavel had two 20 minute games, but then Callahan returned. And now Pavel has gone back to around 5 minutes per game.... When you watch him play, you realize he's not really part of the team... None of his teammates give him high fives after a good play, or give him words of encouragement ... During timeouts he rarely pays attention to the coaches, looking around the gym, butrarely at the coaches .... His physical structure is well developed, very big and strong with muscles and his size is awe inspiring ... His mobility is very good for a man of this size and he has good flexability ... His conditioning is actually good, he can get up and down the court, his biggest problem is with his basketball skills and understanding of the game ... He is a presence on the defensive end both shot blocking and rebounding ... He's pretty good at using his size and weight against other big players, but this is where he will improve a lot in the next few years ... ...

-Cristian Biagini
------------------------------------

[jacktruth]

From NBA.com draft profiles:

Pavel Podkolzine

An early entry candidate for the 2003 NBA Draft.

Career Notes: Was playing for his hometown team in Russian B League, Novosibirsk, when he signed in December 2001 with Metis Varese of the Italian League. He had very little high-level playing experience and was assigned to Varese’s junior team. His progress and sheer size earned him a promotion to Varese’s team in Italy’s top league midway through the 2002-03 season.

(2002-03): Playing for Varese in Italy’s top league, he played 62 minutes over 10 games. He compiled 24 points, 20 rebounds and 10 steals in the 62 minutes.

(2001-02): Played part of season for Varese’s junior team after signing in December 2001.

Strengths: His size and athletic ability caused at least 18 NBA teams to send scouts to watch him play, according to ESPN Insider Chad Ford. He is a developing player with enormous size and tremendous potential.

Personal: Speaks English, Italian and Russian. Favorite NBA player is Ben Wallace of the Detroit Pistons.

[Dirkenstien]

We have to get this guy.

Honestly, can you sleep knowing that we possibly missed an opportunity to acquire the next dominant center of the league? Worst case scenario is he turns out to be a shawn bradley and as we all know ...that isnt half bad. Best case scenario is he becomes a shaq dominate type of player at 7'5" and rules the paint for the next decade. The most probable scenario is he lands somewhere in between those two and establishes himself as a "good", solid center in the NBA. The risk/reward ratio is phenomenal.

Like I said, ...we have to get this guy.

[bcrav4]

From what I hear, Pavel is more of a banger than Bradley. If we could get him to play down low, and he learns to dunk over a few people I'll be supremely happy with Pavel. J-Ho might not be enough to get it done though, we may have to trade away a future first rounder too(again!!!).

[LRB]

Originally posted by: bcrav4
From what I hear, Pavel is more of a banger than Bradley. If we could get him to play down low, and he learns to dunk over a few people I'll be supremely happy with Pavel. J-Ho might not be enough to get it done though, we may have to trade away a future first rounder too(again!!!).

The scouting reports sounds like he's more timid than Bradley as to dunking as well. The Mavs coaching staff just isn't well suited for bringing along and developing a big man. And I'm not sure JHo and a future 1st rounder will guarrantee Pavel.

[birdsanctuary]

I'm not buying it! I simply have seen the nelsons too many times act in certain ways toward available talent and then go 180 degrees the other way. I think Chad Ford has fallen into the their hypnotic ways. I'm willing to bet that Nellie and Donnie are up to their usual tricks. If it's a big man the Mavs want then they are doing everything in their power to devalue the one they really want. Look at Howard, I heard Cubes and the Nelsons say that he was their choice all along, and the guy fell embarassing low. There is no way he gets out of the first 7 picks if the draft is had again and we got him with the last pick.

Maybe I'm falling under the spell of some of you guys on this board, but I'm willing to bet that RAMOS is the guy we really want. Hell, if we want a really big project, why don't we trade for a early second rounder and get the Korean HS kid, or the kid from IRAN, once they get a taste of America they'll work their tails off to stay, not to mention the incentive to earn enough money to bring their families over (No offensive stereotype intended) At least there is no Giantism issue with these two, er' yet!

AGAIN: PAVEL IS A SMOKESCREEN, I'LL BET MY BASKET BALLS MAVS GO AFTER A DIFFERENT BIG MAN!

http://draftcity.com/articles/0033.htm

Exerpt:
2004 Reebok Euro Big Man Camp
By Marco Fracasso
June 3rd, 2004

At the end of the last morning session, there was an interesting competition: the players were divided into two teams, to simulate 3 on 3 fast breaks. After a few minutes the losing team would have had to do ten push-ups. In this exercise Pavel didn’t look very good, he used his size near the basket but he was handling the ball too much and committed some dumb turnovers looking for the spectacular pass. His reaction was somewhat telling when his team lost three times in a row. The first time we counted six push-ups from him. The second he just pretended to do the pushups, moving his butt up and down. The third time he tried to hide himself to avoid the small punishment. Pavel is a really funny character, and it’s not hard to see why people around him like him so much. He will fit in right away in an NBA locker-room setting, on the court though, you have to wonder how serious he is and where exactly the jokes end. He is a huge project, and he’ll have to work incredibly hard his first few seasons to get meaningful playing time.

[ddh33]

I agree with the popular sentiment of the board. I just don't think the Mavs are as high on this kid as everyone else thinks. If so, they surely wouldn't be advertising it...

Now, as to why I think the Mavs are better off keeping Howard instead of Jamison:
First of all, let me put a disclaimer in here to start. I absolutely love Antawn Jamison. He has always been one of my favorite players. I really think the guy can average a very efficient 25 a game. I want him to be a Mav, but I like Howard as a better fit on this team because of his defense. His contract is cheaper also (which doesn't really matter to me). I aso think that Howard will eventually develop into a 15 point, 7.5 rebound a game player. I think the Mavs need more of those type players.

But here's the thing - I think that both Jamison and Howard will be Mavs next season. I don't think Chad Ford is close here...

[MightyToine]

If Pavel is a Tough SOB, then the 1st four words we Mavs fans must teach him to say prior to every tip-off against the opposing center is :



I MUST BREAK YOU





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