Early playoff breakdown of the West & All-Star stuff

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Throwin' Elbows: West will have mediocre playoff teams, too
January 24, 2002
Sean Deveney
The Sporting News

It's no surprise the Eastern Conference is a mess, with six teams within a game of .500, two of which will wind up bumped from the playoff picture. That was expected.

But what's this mess in the West, where five teams are within two games of .500? Sure, the West has the five best teams in the league, but stacked in the middle is the same kind of inconsistent, baffling and frustrating mob that mucks up the East.

Remember last season, when the West featured seven teams that won 50 games? Don't expect the same gaudy number this year.

The Suns were one of the teams that won 50 last year, and now are sitting at 21-20. They lost seven of eight to start January, had lineup troubles, rumors surrounding the job security of coach Scott Skiles and controversy around Penny Hardaway calling for the ball more. Then, inexplicably, the Suns ended Minnesota's nine-game winning streak. As a follow-up, they went on the road and ended Milwaukee's eight-game winning streak Tuesday. It's the kind of play that makes a coach furrow his brow in confusion.

"There are a lot of teams that are struggling to play consistent, winning basketball," Skiles says. "We have played really hard the last two games and busted up two winning streaks, on two quality teams. We have never denied the fact that when we play really hard, we play really well and we normally win. Like most of these teams do. The real trick is getting that effort every night."

There are others. The Blazers, Clippers, Jazz and Sonics join the Suns in the West's pool of mediocrity. When members of that pool play really hard, they win. After the Blazers beat the Kings, Sacramento forward Chris Webber said, "Portland has guys who can step up, and maybe that's why their record is so frustrating. You've just got to give them credit. They played their best ball and beat us."

But it sure has been tricky getting that effort every night. Frustrating? You bet. For every up, there has been a confounding down. Take a look at these teams, and what lies ahead:

UTAH (22-21)

Up: Won seven of eight at the end of December and beginning of January, including wins over Boston and Phoenix, at Portland and at New Jersey.

Down: Lost four out of five to start the season, and bottomed out with a lifeless 32-point loss to Atlanta, eventually falling five games below .500.

Forecast: Partly cloudy. They start a back-to-back against Sacramento tonight, but the real test will be a 26-day stretch without a home game during the Olympics in February. The good news about that stretch is only two of the nine teams they play are over .500.

PHOENIX (21-21)

Up: Had a tough five-game winning streak (two over Utah, a 20-point win over Milwaukee, at Portland and against Golden State) in late November and early December.

Down: Started the New Year with seven losses in eight games, including one to the Grizzlies and a 21-point home loss to Philadelphia, sinking the team's 18-13 mark.

Forecast: Mostly sunny. The Suns are done with Sacramento, and play just eight more games against the West's top five teams. They'd better have their act together for an eight-game, 12-day stretch in early March.

SEATTLE (22-20)

Up: Won eight of nine in late December and early January, beating the Kings, Clippers, Magic and Raptors.

Down: Lost four of five in December, including at home to Miami and losses of at least 20 points to the Clippers, Blazers and Minnesota, which put them five games below .500.

Forecast: Hazy. Their ability to make the playoffs will be tied to what happens with Gary Payton. If he is traded -- and it is not looking like he will be -- then forget the postseason. If not, the Sonics have a relatively light second half.

LA CLIPPERS (22-21)

Up: A string of six wins in seven games in December, beating Orlando, Seattle and Sacramento at home, and Phoenix on the road.

Down: A terrible road trip in which they lost five of six, scored an average of 87 points and fell below .500.

Forecast: Severe storms. The Clippers are 3-14 on the road, and, starting Monday, will go on a seven-game trip heading into the All-Star break. They play nine of 10 on the road in late February and early March.

PORTLAND (22-20)

Up: They've won six of their last seven, beating the Clippers by 20 and beating Sacramento in overtime.

Down: The six-game losing streak that started on December 22 and plunged the team five games under .500.

Forecast: Partly cloudy. They still have three games against the Lakers, and three road trips of four games each. But three games against the Grizzlies and two against the Bulls help.

Welcome back

Once again, we're rolling out the welcome mat this week. Let's see who's getting welcomed this time around:

Heat: In Miami, they're talking playoffs, All-Star team for Alonzo Mourning and Hall of Fame for Rod Strickland. Or something like that.

Knicks: Of course, they were helped by Latrell Sprewell's exploitation of Vince Carter's turnstile defense, but coming off a 43-point loss, New York's win over the Raptors was strong tonic.

Cruise control: Whenever the Lakers lose a few, we have to welcome back this phrase. The Lakers don't slump. They just cruise.

Jonathan Bender: And you thought Bender was just another 7-0 shooting guard. He's been starting in the frontcourt, even with Jermaine O'Neal back. Maybe the Pacers found the big man they've been looking for.

Beast of the East?

So, what about Alonzo Mourning and the All-Star team? The other night, Heat coach Pat Riley told reporters that since late December, Mourning, "is the best center in the Eastern Conference." Riley added that Mourning should make the team on merit, "not because he has a kidney disease."

The All-Star team rewards the whole first half, not just a guy's most recent play, and you can't just overlook that Mourning was not himself for the first quarter of the year. Still, Mourning has a pretty good shot. Dikembe Mutombo will be the starter at center, and Jermaine O'Neal should be voted as the backup.

The way the team is set up, there are five starters, five backups and two at-large players. Once you get past the East's top 10, the pickings for All-Stars get slim. Mourning, averaging 15.3 points, 8.4 rebounds and 2.6 blocks, could get in as an at-large player. Even if he does not, there are always a couple of guys who have to sit out because of injury, and that could open a door for Mourning.

The starters will be announced this weekend, and the reserves will be announced Tuesday.

The list

Thinking about Mourning's chances to make the All-Star team got me thinking about other guys who could wind up getting shut out of the game. Of course, that led where my idle thoughts always lead: a new list. The topic this week is, which deserving players are most likely to be home on Feb. 10? (Before you start with the angry emails, remember these are deserving players who probably won't fit on the team's 12-man roster. Not guys who stink.)

1. Shawn Marion: With so many good forwards in the West (Tim Duncan, Kevin Garnett, Dirk Nowitzki, Karl Malone, Peja Stojakovic, Chris Webber and Elton Brand), Marion could be overlooked.

2. Nick Van Exel: The emergence of Steve Nash, the play of Stephon Marbury and Gary Payton, the sad state of the Nuggets and those continual trade demands could doom Van Exel.

3. Andre Miller: I think it will come down to Miller or Baron Davis, and Davis will get it, leaving Miller and his 10.0 assists out.

4. Shareef Abdur-Rahim: He has averaged 20.1 points and 9.8 rebounds, and certainly deserves a spot, but I think the disappointment of the Hawks might cost him. If he makes it, it's likely Mourning won't.

5. Wally Szczerbiak: Hard to ignore a shooting guard who shoots 51.7 percent from the field. Szczerbiak has been vital to the Timberwolves' strong first half, but it's still Kevin Garnett's team.