Reading Tea Leaves

[uberfan]

1. If Mavs sign Harris and Pavel in the next week or so, they will be staying for the foreseeable future. If not, they were drafted to trade.

2. Ultimately, only Kobe and Shaq can put enough pressure on LAL to move Shaq sooner rather later. If Kobe spends most of July visiting other cities and does very little talking to LAL, then his message to LAL is unmistakable. If Shaq continues to bring other teams into the picture with his cooments like the Kings, then he makes it more likely he will be traded--but maybe not to Dallas.

3. If it is leaked after July 1 that the Daniels deal is all but done, just waiting out the mandatory period, then Mavs will be definitely trying to trade for another center. If Daniels not done almost immediately all bets are off.

4. If it is leaked after July 1 that the Nash deal is all but done, just waiting out the mandatory period, then will are likely to be looking for someone other than Shaq at the 5 (unless it's leaked that Nash is going in a S&T). If Nash spends a lot of time travelling, and even more time in Phoenix, then Kobe will be putting even more pressure on LAL to get a Shaq deal done. I think Kobe is viewing the Suns and LAC as outside options for himself.

5. If all rumors say that the Mavs are continuing to try and deal for either Dampier or Z, then Shaq coming to Dallas is closer than we realize. Any move for a center other than these two may be an indication that Mavs have moved beyond the Shaq plan for now, and will only seriously entertain it again if LAL come a calling with a no-nonsense proposal.

[V]

eff Damp & Shaq

....


PAAAAAA -vel PUUUUUUD -kol

PAAAAAA -vel PUUUUUUD -kol

PAAAAAA -vel PUUUUUUD -kol

[Poindexter Einstein]

UBER ...

1. The only reason for a delay in signing rookies is to allow a trade. Good call.
2. I think Shaq is trying to pump up interest in a Shaq extension. He is pimping himself. I dont like it, but thats how I see it. RE the Kings - they say they cant afford Shaq's price in both contract (I believe that) and in talent (if they dont want to ramp up their payoll again, which fits their past year, I think this is fact not posturing also - if you send a pile of talent to LA for Shaq, you will have to raise payroll to replace it.)
3. Daniels- I dont see any relevance to the Shaq issue.
4. Nash - I think he will shop around no matter what.
5. I dont think the rumors will help at all.

Add an item 6 ...
6. A deal for Shaq will almost certainly cost Nash or Harris. Once (if) both sign new deals with Dallas, a Shaq deal is far less likely. I suspect Harris will be the one traded.

[Simon2]

I rather lose Harris instead of Nash.

1. Don't they have to sign them to trade them?

2. Shaq will at some point realize if he already hasn't that the Mavs are the only team willing to pay him.

3. Daniels will stay depending on how much the Mavs give him the MLE. I don't remember the Mvas giving anyone in recent history the full MLE. If someone offers him more, I bet he walks. As the talk about him being in the war room is great but money talks louder.

4. Right

Originally posted by: Poindexter Einstein
UBER ...

1. The only reason for a delay in signing rookies is to allow a trade. Good call.
2. I think Shaq is trying to pump up interest in a Shaq extension. He is pimping himself. I dont like it, but thats how I see it. RE the Kings - they say they cant afford Shaq's price in both contract (I believe that) and in talent (if they dont want to ramp up their payoll again, which fits their past year, I think this is fact not posturing also - if you send a pile of talent to LA for Shaq, you will have to raise payroll to replace it.)
3. Daniels- I dont see any relevance to the Shaq issue.
4. Nash - I think he will shop around no matter what.
5. I dont think the rumors will help at all.

Add an item 6 ...
6. A deal for Shaq will almost certainly cost Nash or Harris. Once (if) both sign new deals with Dallas, a Shaq deal is far less likely. I suspect Harris will be the one traded.

[uberfan]

Originally posted by: Simon2
I rather lose Harris instead of Nash.

1. Don't they have to sign them to trade them?

2. Shaq will at some point realize if he already hasn't that the Mavs are the only team willing to pay him.

3. Daniels will stay depending on how much the Mavs give him the MLE. I don't remember the Mvas giving anyone in recent history the full MLE. If someone offers him more, I bet he walks. As the talk about him being in the war room is great but money talks louder.

1. If they sign them they can't be traded until December. They can trade the rigghts to them without signing them to a contract.

2. LAL may still cave in, which I believe to be the likely scenario. If they cannot get someone to blow them away with a deal, then why wouldn't they just keep him? Especially if Kobe decides is OK with Shaq coming back. He may start thinking how lonely it will be to try and carry a team like the Lakers all by himself. Kobe may also decide he wants to go with a team like Suns or Clipps without having to start the rebuilding process from the bery beginning. Who knows what the Kobe situation is in the end.

3. If someone pays him more than the full MLE he is gone.

[grndmstr_c]

3. If someone pays him more than the full MLE he is gone.

If someone pays him significantly more than the full MLE he'd be stupid not to take it. But just clearing out the MLE by a little bit will not be enough to lure him away as long as the Mavs are willing to give him the full MLE for an equal length of time as the other team's offer with a player option in the third year.

[ddh33]

I'm just really ready to get this thing over with one way or another.

Right now, I'm really high on both rookies. I think Harris will be a fantastic player. He's got everything you need to succeed at this level. Pavel is a project, but he has a ton of potential. It would take a lot for me to give either of them up.

The Big Three are obviously my favorites. Those guys have been here and proven themselves, with a less than stellar supporting cast. I still want to see what they can do when they are surrounded by players that compliment them instead of replicating them.

Howard and Daniels both showed me a lot last season. I hope to get to see more of them.

So, now you see my dilemma. If I am the decision maker for the Dallas Mavericks, there isn't a ton I'm willing to give up in just any scenario. The core is expanding, which is good and bad. The good news is that Dallas has the pieces to contend both now and for the next 10 years. The bad news is that all we have is junk to trade to other teams.

If Shaq is truly available and the target, then you have to part with something worthwhile. That is obvious. But the question remains whether or not you would choose to gut some of your team for this one player, or trade the excess pieces and spare parts for someone who isn't in Shaq's league. At this point, I honestly don't know.

I do know this, Shaq is not going to win a championship by himself. You can't just trade the best parts of your team to get him. So the decision isn't as big a no-brainer as everyone assumes.

My hope is that the price tag on Shaq continue to drop. I hope he continues to make remarks about the Lakers that hurt his trade value. I hope teams continue to drop out of the bidding because his price and contract are too high. I hope Kobe demands that Shaq be gone soon. I hope the Mavs can get him without giving up anything too significant. I think I hope for too much though...

[StvNash13]

At this point I really don't want Shaq. As ddh pointed out, the players that we have right now are very likeable and difficult to part with. Dirk and Nash in my mind are off limits, Finley has been here and done everything he had to, he should stay, Howard and Daniels proved themselves last year, Pavel and Devin are our future. I want every single one of those guys to stay, but it's impossible if we trade for Shaq. I would really rather have Damp at this point, because some combo of Walker, Stack, L8 and Delk will prob be enough to get him.

[ddh33]

Originally posted by: StvNash13
At this point I really don't want Shaq. As ddh pointed out, the players that we have right now are very likeable and difficult to part with. Dirk and Nash in my mind are off limits, Finley has been here and done everything he had to, he should stay, Howard and Daniels proved themselves last year, Pavel and Devin are our future. I want every single one of those guys to stay, but it's impossible if we trade for Shaq. I would really rather have Damp at this point, because some combo of Walker, Stack, L8 and Delk will prob be enough to get him.

That is exactly what I am saying. Instead of changing the core of this team, I would rather add to what we have. In my mind, that will make winning much sweeter. Right now, I kind of feel like Shaq is a mercenary. I want to feel victory with the same guys who were booed here once upon a time.

Now, if we could get Shaq without giving up the core guys, I would be more than all for that. I know it's unrealistic. What isn't unrealistic is thinking that these Mavs can win...

[kg_veteran]

Originally posted by: ddh33

That is exactly what I am saying. Instead of changing the core of this team, I would rather add to what we have. In my mind, that will make winning much sweeter. Right now, I kind of feel like Shaq is a mercenary. I want to feel victory with the same guys who were booed here once upon a time.

Now, if we could get Shaq without giving up the core guys, I would be more than all for that. I know it's unrealistic. What isn't unrealistic is thinking that these Mavs can win...

It's crazy, but I'm starting to feel this way myself. I'm not going to come out and say I don't want Shaq on this team, but if he completely changes the "face of the franchise" in the process, I don't know if I'll enjoy it as much when and if the team succeeds with Shaq.


(NOTE: This opinion is subject to change at any time.) [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-wink.gif[/img]

[kg_veteran]

1. If Mavs sign Harris and Pavel in the next week or so, they will be staying for the foreseeable future. If not, they were drafted to trade.

If they sign, you're right. They're here. If they don't sign, it could mean that they're being traded, or it could mean that the Mavs are keeping their options open. Players don't always sign right away. It sometimes takes time.

2. Ultimately, only Kobe and Shaq can put enough pressure on LAL to move Shaq sooner rather later. If Kobe spends most of July visiting other cities and does very little talking to LAL, then his message to LAL is unmistakable. If Shaq continues to bring other teams into the picture with his cooments like the Kings, then he makes it more likely he will be traded--but maybe not to Dallas.

Ultimately, I think only Kobe can put enough pressure on the Lakers to move Shaq. If Kobe says he can live with Shaq next year, I bet they bring him back.

3. If it is leaked after July 1 that the Daniels deal is all but done, just waiting out the mandatory period, then Mavs will be definitely trying to trade for another center. If Daniels not done almost immediately all bets are off.

I think the Mavs should consider what they could get for the MLE at the C spot, especially if it appears that Shaq might not work out, but they've already stated their intentions. They're going to offer the MLE to Daniels. If he wants it, he's here. If not, then they might go in another direction, but the ball is in his court, IMO.

4. If it is leaked after July 1 that the Nash deal is all but done, just waiting out the mandatory period, then will are likely to be looking for someone other than Shaq at the 5 (unless it's leaked that Nash is going in a S&T). If Nash spends a lot of time travelling, and even more time in Phoenix, then Kobe will be putting even more pressure on LAL to get a Shaq deal done. I think Kobe is viewing the Suns and LAC as outside options for himself.

There are packages that could be given for Shaq that don't include Nash, but I think you might be right. If it's leaked that Dallas has a deal done with Nash, that definitely makes a Shaq acquisition less likely unless the leak says that Nash will be signed and traded.

5. If all rumors say that the Mavs are continuing to try and deal for either Dampier or Z, then Shaq coming to Dallas is closer than we realize. Any move for a center other than these two may be an indication that Mavs have moved beyond the Shaq plan for now, and will only seriously entertain it again if LAL come a calling with a no-nonsense proposal.

This is what Dallas should do (look at all options, including those that don't involve Shaq). It make sense in the event that Shaq is unattainable, and it can't hurt their negotiating position.

[ddh33]

Originally posted by: kg_veteran

It's crazy, but I'm starting to feel this way myself. I'm not going to come out and say I don't want Shaq on this team, but if he completely changes the "face of the franchise" in the process, I don't know if I'll enjoy it as much when and if the team succeeds with Shaq.


(NOTE: This opinion is subject to change at any time.) [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-wink.gif[/img]

I don't think it's crazy. All of us want success, but we want it with OUR players. Shaq is great and might lead this team to a championship, but it wouldn't feel like our players. At least, it wouldn't if Dirk, Nash, Finley or any other core piece was involved.

I want this team to win a championship, but I want to win it on their terms, their way. I happen to think that it is possible - even if others don't. I also believe this team is close. I'll say it again, you don't need Shaq to win a championship. You do need an improvement at center, but not at the expense of everything else.

Like you, I do have the right to change my mind. I don't think I'm going to. Unless Walker and company can get Shaq, I don't think I want him as much as I did.

[sike]

I don't think it's crazy. All of us want success, but we want it with OUR players. Shaq is great and might lead this team to a championship, but it wouldn't feel like our players. At least, it wouldn't if Dirk, Nash, Finley or any other core piece was involved.

it would not take long for Shaq to win all our hearts..guarneteed....

I want this team to win a championship, but I want to win it on their terms, their way. I happen to think that it is possible - even if others don't. I also believe this team is close. I'll say it again, you don't need Shaq to win a championship. You do need an improvement at center, but not at the expense of everything else.

true.....but would you admit that shaq brings them much closer to a title(say if only Nash is gone from the "core") than if they only improve at the center and shore up the D a bit....if this is true, which do you choose....a decent shot with "our guys" or the best shot with most of "our guys" and Daddy?

Like you, I do have the right to change my mind. I don't think I'm going to. Unless Walker and company can get Shaq, I don't think I want him as much as I did.

i am either a great fan or a horrible one...I want a championship at any cost for the team that I cheer for....of course i like "our guys" but I want a title for "our guys" more than anything else.......and if that costs one of "our guys" then I do the deal. forgive me.... I must end this thread now, I'm sick of writing "our guys" in quotes...... [img]i/expressions/face-icon-small-wink.gif[/img]

[ddh33]

All is forgiven, Sike. I can't blame you at all either. I completely understand where you are coming from. I'm just saying that I would have a very difficult time parting with core pieces to get Shaq. For what it's worth, I do think Shaq would win everyone over in a short amount of time - like the time it takes for us to hear the announcement. I just hate to think of any announcement that says, "The Dallas Mavericks have made the biggest move in recent NBA histroy by trading Dirk Nowitzki and Steve Nash for Shaquille O'Neal..."

I don't really expect that to be the deal or anything, so I replace it in my mind with other scenarios. I don't like the way it sounds with Dirk and junk, or even Nash and junk. The best news to me is that I don't necessarily think Dallas HAS to trade either of them. Nash holds all the cards here and Dirk should be untouchable. I can't imagine Finley being appealing with his contract. So, it leaves me feeling pretty good about things...I'm just a natural worrier...and I'm cheap. I have a hard time giving up things that have value to me. I value a lot of the players here.

[sike]

gotcha