Can ANYONE figure out the Sagarin Ratings?

[dude1394]

I just don't get it...

Against top 10- mavs better. 12-2 versus 12-5
Against top 16- mavs better 21-7 versus 21-9
Point differential favors the mavs.
Same record.
Between the three teams..

Mavs 3-1
Squirts 3-2
Detroit 2-1

Hmmm beats me, is this some sort of random-number generator?

[kg_veteran]

dude - Sagarin says that he uses a "synthesis" of the Elo Chess (wins and losses) and the Pure Points (point differential) rating systems. His rankings show Dallas as the No. 4 team in Pure Points and the No. 3 team in Elo Chess. My suspicion is that both ratings systems are weighted by opponent.

If you'll notice, Sagarin currently has the Mavs schedule ranked as 19th most difficult, while the Spurs schedule is ranked as 9th most difficult. The only way to reconcile the Spurs still being ahead of the Mavs in the rankings is that Sagarin is somehow giving the Spurs more credit for their winning percentage and point differential based upon who their opponents were.

[Drbio]

First...no, I cannot exsplain his stats package. But, he does factor in things like strength of schedule (which changes as the year progresses), performance at home, performance on the road, and others. The guy is so freaking smart it is sickening. If you can direct me to his site I will ask one of the statisticians here about it.

[Stranger]

I have been trying to fathom the Sagarin rankings for a while myself. I have been left totally confused. The "Pure Points" ranking is the most abstruse. I can't imagine what it would be besides point differential, and yet it does not follow point differential rankings.

KG--it's true that he might somehow incorporate schedule strength, but until recently the Mavs had a stronger schedule than the Spurs and were still ranked behing them when they had the same record. Likewise, they were ranked behind the Suns in "Pure Points" when they had a stronger schedule and a better point differential.

Doc--here is the link to his site: http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nba0506.htm

[Drbio]

I've asked one of the statisticians to look it over and try to get me a plain english response. Hold your breath....stats guys are a strange breed of cat.

[dude1394]

Doc...you have any luck with this? I still can't figure it out. The mavs continue to go higher and higher with point differential (second only to pistons), even when 1.5 ahead of squirts, they trail???

[Mavs Rule]

If you check the consolidated rankings this week, Sagarin is one of only two to have the mavs at number 3. The other is CBS which hasn't updated its rankings since valentine's day. Four sites have the mavs ranked first. Five sites have them ranked second to the pistons.

Sagarin is definitely lagging when upgrading the mavs ranking is concerned. I don't think the mavs have been higher than three in his rankings the entire year. It really makes me question his ranking methods when we win 18 of our last 19 games and as of yesterday, his system still has us third. Go figure.

[grndmstr_c]

It's not really that hard to figure. Human judgement tends to be swayed by recent events and streaks moreso than is strictly justificable from a probabilistic perspective, and unless you model that tendency in a statistical ranking system like Sagarin's (and I'm not at all certain it's something that you should want to duplicate if your aim is to get an accurate accounting of relative team strength) you're going to get a set of rankings that's more stable than the rankings you get from espn/cnnsi/etc, and therefore will on occassion appear to lag a bit.

[DubOverdose]

who cares where some system or some person ranks us...we know this team gets it done every night.

[dude1394]

Well the sagarin ratings (imo) are certainly based on more than who's playing good this week which is the si, espn, etc.

I'm just trying to figure out how they work however? I can't get it.

[dirno2000]

Originally Posted by dude1394

Doc...you have any luck with this?

Surely you've been around long enough to know false bravado when you see it...

[Drbio]

Originally Posted by dirno2000

Surely you've been around long enough to know false bravado when you see it...

Nice signature though dirno.....BTW, you never answered the question.






Haven't been by to talk to him dude. I apologize. It fell off my radar. He is working on another deal for me right now too so I need to get over there. I'll send myself an email in a few minutes to remind me to call him in the morning.

[dirno2000]

Thanks doc....look forward to hearing from your "friend". How long do you think it'll be?

[Drbio]

Probably not as long as it takes for you to answer the question, but thanks. You seem to like to initiate these little revelations.