ESPN Insider: Mavs v. Suns Matchup Breakdown - Dallas-Mavs.com Forums

aexchange · 05-24-2006, 08:56 AM

Scouting report: Suns vs. Mavs

By John Carroll
Scouts Inc.
Archive

Both of these teams were involved in grueling seven-game series which took its toll on each team, both mentally and physically. It will be interesting to see how quickly each team gets over its last series and on to the Western Conference finals.

This series may take on the look of a YMCA pick-up game. The pace of the game, the high scores, the lack of defense, no true centers on the court for long periods, will make for some interesting basketball.

As we approach the matchups for this series, it is important to understand that there will be a lot of cross matching between the Mavs and Suns. Devin Harris will guard Raja Bell, Steve Nash will guard Jason Terry, Bell could guard anybody, and so on. So watch the matchups, because they will change throughout the game and traditional positions are somewhat irrelevant.

Point Guard: Devin Harris vs. Steve Nash
Mavs: The insertion of Harris into the Mavs' lineup in Game 2 of the Spurs series was pure genius on Avery Johnson's part. It changed the entire series. But Harris struggled in the latter games of that series as the pressure mounted. He will cause the Suns some problems with his speed and athleticism but he is not ready for the pressure that comes this deep into the playoffs. Look for the Mavs to utilize Harris on both Nash and Bell in this series. Nash will abuse him in pick-and-rolls and could frustrate this young guard.

Suns: Nash is the two-time NBA Most Valuable Player, and he will be going up against a combination of Harris and Terry at the point. No contest, Nash wins this matchup hands down. Nash has been struggling physically of late, but he did not look injured or fatigued in Game 7 vs. the Clippers.

The Suns will need him at his best if they have any chance of knocking off the Mavs. Everything Phoenix does offensively begins with Nash -- he is the creator. He pushes it in transition, probes, circles and runs pick-and-rolls. Without him, this machine would come to a grinding halt.

Nash is not stopping anyone on defense. Look for Harris or Terry to have big numbers in this series.

Advantage: Suns

Shooting Guard: Jason Terry vs. Raja Bell
Mavs: We saw the importance of Terry in both Games 6 and 7 of the Spurs series. The Mavs were a completely different team with him on the floor. His ability to score and create his own shot takes a lot of offensive pressure off Dirk Nowitzki. Terry is averaging almost 19 points in the playoffs and is a deadly outside shooter. Look for a lot of pick-and-rolls with Terry and Nowitzki in this series.

Suns: Bell is a tough, versatile player and he will be assigned defensively to the top perimeter player for the Mavs. He was matched on Sam Cassell in the Clippers series and against Kobe Bryant in the Lakers series. Look for him to be on Terry, Jerry Stackhouse and possibly Nowitzki. Bell has played great for the Suns in the playoffs since his suspension in the Lakers series. He has been consistent on offense, averaging 15.8 points and shooting the 3-ball at a 49 percent clip in the playoffs.

Advantage: Mavs

Small Forward: Josh Howard vs. Tim Thomas
Mavs: The Spurs were kicking themselves all series that they did not draft this all-around player. Josh Howard is a steady, reliable wing player who defends at a high level, rebounds and takes quality shots. He has delivered 16.4 points per game throughout the playoffs for the Mavs and Johnson will utilize him on Tim Thomas, Shawn Marion and even Boris Diaw if needed.

Suns: Thomas has been reborn in Phoenix. Mike D'Antoni stated recently he is not worried about what Thomas can't do but more concerned about what he can do. D'Antoni has played Tim about 30 minutes per game in the playoffs and he has contributed mightily for the Suns with 15.1 and 7.0 averages. In addition, Thomas fits right in with his athletic perimeter skills and his ability to knock down the 3-ball.

Advantage: Mavs

Power Forward: Dirk Nowitzki vs. Shawn Marion
Mavs: This guy may be the MVP of the playoffs if he continues to play at this level. He has matured as a basketball player because he understands exactly what is needed to win. Nowitzki has diversified his game. He can shoot it from the perimeter, back you down and shoot over you or drive it to the hole. One stat that tells you Dirk's growth as a player is free-throw attempts. He is attempting almost 11 per game in the playoffs and he had 16 versus the Spurs in Game 7.

In addition, Nowitzki's willingness to mix it up inside and get on the glass has been devastating because of his height advantage.

Offensively, the Mavs love to run pick-and-rolls with Nowitzki and a small to create the switch and allow Dirk to roll toward the hoop and shoot over his mismatch. Nowitzki will be challenged defensively in this series because there is no one for him to guard. Every frontline player for the Suns is too quick and agile for him.

Suns: Marion had been struggling from the perimeter in the Clippers series but he may have gotten hot at the right time for the Suns. His 30-point performance and 3-point shooting (5-for-9) in Game 7 may be exactly what gets Marion back on track. Marion's speed and athleticism will tax any Mavs player who matches up with him. He needs to utilize his drive game more in this series and get to the rim. Look for Marion to match up on Nowitzki because of his length and athleticism.

Advantage: Mavs

Center: Erick Dampier/DeSagana Diop vs. Boris Diaw
Mavs: The Mavs have used a two-headed center throughout the playoffs, but that may come to an end vs. the Suns. The Mavs cannot afford to have Nowitzki and a big, slow center on the court at the same time versus the Suns' small-ball running game. Look for Johnson to utilize Keith Van Horn or play with three guards and Nowitzki and Howard up front.

Suns: How the Suns have advanced to the Western Conference finals without Amare Stoudemire and no true inside player is astonishing. However, Diaw's presence and improvement as a player have enabled the Suns to play small and make their opponents adjust to them. Diaw's stats throughout the playoffs tell the story. He is averaging 16.4 points on 52 percent shooting (66 percent from the arc) and six rebounds. He distorts the center position with his spacing and perimeter shooting and the Mavs will be forced to play without a center throughout this series because of him.

Advantage: Suns

Bench
The Mavs play anywhere from 8-10 guys a game, whereas the Suns only go about seven deep. This may be a factor especially early and late in this series. Both teams are weary physically and mentally from their seven-game series and the Mavs' deeper bench may prove to be the difference in the early games of this series. In addition, as this series moves on, Nash, Marion, Thomas, Bell and Diaw will be logging big minutes again. The fatigue of this series and the cumulative affect of the entire year may finally catch up to them.

It will be interesting if Kurt Thomas will be available in this series. It would give the Suns another frontcourt player to utilize and give Diaw, Marion or Tim Thomas some needed rest.

Advantage: Mavs

Coaching: Avery Johnson vs. Mike D'Antoni
On display in this series we have the NBA Coaches of the Year for the past two years. So no one has the advantage in this one. Both of these two coaches are bright, well-liked by their players and tested. Both Johnson and D'Antoni have shown the ability to think outside the box. They understand mismatches, and how small-ball combined with speed and athleticism can affect the outcome of a game or series. In addition, each coach has a superstar to lean on and give the ball to at the end of games to create a positive result.

Advantage: Push

This will be an entertaining series for the players, coaches and fans. There will be plenty of scoring with every game in the 115-125 point range. Do not look for any defensive struggles.

I think the Suns are very vulnerable at this point in the season. They are going up against a team that can play big or small, and has speed, athleticism and depth. I would not be surprised to see Dallas get up 2-0 in this series and then go out to Phoenix and win a game there. I do not think this series will go the full distance.

Pick: Look for the Mavs to win this in five

sixeightmkw · 05-24-2006, 09:02 AM

Wow, Mavs in 5, that was interesting.

DubOverdose · 05-24-2006, 10:11 AM

There better be more defense than he is predicting though.

TripleDipping · 05-24-2006, 10:27 AM

Predictions from ESPN:

Anthony - Mavs in 6
Broussard - Mavs in 6
Hollinger - Mavs in 5
Sheridan - Suns in 7
Stein - Mavs in 6

alexamenos · 05-24-2006, 11:04 AM

I try my durndest to be objective in looking at this series, but maybe I'm too much of a homer to be trusted...this caveat in mind....

Other than near miraculously high levels of outside shooting, I can't see anyway that Suns win 4 games in 7 against the Mavs.

Two - yeah. Three - maybe. Fo' - no way in hell.

Instructive, I believe, is Suns v. Clips game 3. The Suns shot 25% from beyond the arc and under 40% for the game....

....and they won!

No way in hell do the Suns win games against the Mavs where they're not lighting it up. The Suns have won two 7-game series against 40-odd win, bottom half of the bracket teams not because they are resilient, scrappy, etc., etc., but rather because they were playing bottom-half of the bracket teams which they could beat on off nights. They don't win off-night games against the Mavs. (Mavs>>Clips, Mavs >>>> Lakers, no brainer)

And....for all the talk about D, the Mavs 've Got O!. In terms of Points per Hundred Possessions, the Mavs are right on top of the Suns (112 pts per hundred possessions to 112 per hundred). This is the first series that Suns have played any team that has anything near their level of offensive fire power. If the Mavs can light up the Spurs in 4 games out of 7, no way do the Suns hold the Mavs down for even 2 games in 7. (Spurs D >>> Suns D, no brainer)

Oh yeah...matchups, schmatchups. Elton Brand was a matchup nightmare for the Suns because of his low post ability, blah, blah, blah.... 31 and 10 in the semis, blah, blah, blah. The Eurosoftie perimeter jumpshooting Nowitzki will get 31 and 10 on his worst nights, and the Rest 'o Mavs >>>>> Rest 'o Clippers.

so....my official series prediction.

Mavs in 5.5.

Cheers

thunderFence · 05-24-2006, 11:28 AM

thunderFence- Mavs in 4

dirno2000 · 05-24-2006, 11:31 AM

Theres a good chance that the Suns wouldn't even be here without homecourt advantage in the first two rounds. They're 2-4 on the road.

DubOverdose · 05-24-2006, 12:29 PM

Broussard has been right about every series except he thought the Nets would beat the Heat. He has also had near perfect # of game predictions. Right now he has the Mavs in 6.

HexNBA · 05-24-2006, 02:03 PM

I'm really disappointed with the fact that ESPN's NBA page still has the effing draft lottery thing up instead of a preview of this series

NM, they finally have something up

alexamenos · 05-24-2006, 02:58 PM

man....I'm seriously jonesin' to get this thing started.....I can only concentrate on work for about ten minutes at a time before I start surfing for something new.

anyhoo....it's no secret that the Mavs are a much better rebounding team, but here's some stats just for grins.

During the regular season, the Mavs were the third best rebounding team in the league, pulling down 52.3% of all rebounds (Utah - 52.6%, Miami - 52.5%). The Suns are as bad at rebounding as the Mavs are good, pulling down only 47.6% (Blazers - 47.0%, Bobcats - 47.5%).

FWIW, the Suns aren't statistically the worst rebounding team in the playoffs this year, that dubious distinction would belong to the Memphis Grizzlies, who had the misfortune of playing a much better rebounding team in round 1.

on the flip side....

Most of us are well aware that the Mavs have outrebounded their opponents in 11 out of 11 games, but it may come as bit of a surprise to learn that they haven't lead all other teams in rebounding during the playoffs, they're actually only third in rebounding pulling down 54.1%.

2nd -- LA Clippers 54.2%
1st -- LA Lakers 54.3%

Hmmm.....I wonder why both the Lakers and the Clippers have put up such gaudy rebounding numbers?

SirChaz · 05-24-2006, 03:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alexamenos

Most of us are well aware that the Mavs have outrebounded their opponents in 11 out of 11 games, but it may come as bit of a surprise to learn that they haven't lead all other teams in rebounding during the playoffs, they're actually only third in rebounding pulling down 54.1%.

2nd -- LA Clippers 54.2%
1st -- LA Lakers 54.3%

Hmmm.....I wonder why both the Lakers and the Clippers have put up such gaudy rebounding numbers?

WOW!!!!

.1 and .2 percent higher than the amazing MAVS?!?!?!

That's gaudy!!!!

A lot of good it did them too.

grndmstr_c · 05-24-2006, 03:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alexamenos

man....I'm seriously jonesin' to get this thing started.....I can only concentrate on work for about ten minutes at a time before I start surfing for something new.

anyhoo....it's no secret that the Mavs are a much better rebounding team, but here's some stats just for grins.

During the regular season, the Mavs were the third best rebounding team in the league, pulling down 52.3% of all rebounds (Utah - 52.6%, Miami - 52.5%). The Suns are as bad at rebounding as the Mavs are good, pulling down only 47.6% (Blazers - 47.0%, Bobcats - 47.5%).

FWIW, the Suns aren't statistically the worst rebounding team in the playoffs this year, that dubious distinction would belong to the Memphis Grizzlies, who had the misfortune of playing a much better rebounding team in round 1.

on the flip side....

Most of us are well aware that the Mavs have outrebounded their opponents in 11 out of 11 games, but it may come as bit of a surprise to learn that they haven't lead all other teams in rebounding during the playoffs, they're actually only third in rebounding pulling down 54.1%.

2nd -- LA Clippers 54.2%
1st -- LA Lakers 54.3%

Hmmm.....I wonder why both the Lakers and the Clippers have put up such gaudy rebounding numbers?

Some nice, poignant research there.

diop it like its hot · 05-24-2006, 03:12 PM

because everyone for the suns is out on the perimeter waiting for the kick back. no one is down there for the rebound. the mavs have got to defend the perimeter, even if it means letting nash get his.

banpeikun · 05-24-2006, 03:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alexamenos

man....I'm seriously jonesin' to get this thing started.....I can only concentrate on work for about ten minutes at a time before I start surfing for something new.

anyhoo....it's no secret that the Mavs are a much better rebounding team, but here's some stats just for grins.

During the regular season, the Mavs were the third best rebounding team in the league, pulling down 52.3% of all rebounds (Utah - 52.6%, Miami - 52.5%). The Suns are as bad at rebounding as the Mavs are good, pulling down only 47.6% (Blazers - 47.0%, Bobcats - 47.5%).

FWIW, the Suns aren't statistically the worst rebounding team in the playoffs this year, that dubious distinction would belong to the Memphis Grizzlies, who had the misfortune of playing a much better rebounding team in round 1.

on the flip side....

Most of us are well aware that the Mavs have outrebounded their opponents in 11 out of 11 games, but it may come as bit of a surprise to learn that they haven't lead all other teams in rebounding during the playoffs, they're actually only third in rebounding pulling down 54.1%.

2nd -- LA Clippers 54.2%
1st -- LA Lakers 54.3%

Hmmm.....I wonder why both the Lakers and the Clippers have put up such gaudy rebounding numbers?

nice analysis on the rebounding stats. we should probably crush them on the boards, even more if avery can keep a center in the game and play it at our pace.

GP · 05-24-2006, 03:45 PM

I think the Suns represent a matchup challenge for the Mavs. Despite what everyone is saying I think they have to stick with Dampier and Diop for the full 48 and punish the interior defense of the Suns. If the mavs go to a smaller lineup ala Van Horn then the Mavs probably will be suckered into an uptempo series that ultimately favors the Suns. I really think the key to the series will be if someone on the Mavs can stay in front of Nash. If they let him score like they did in last years playoffs then the Mavs will struggle. If they can slow him up without doubling on every possession then the Mavs will be just fine. If the Mavs have to double then Diaw is going to be huge. I don't know how the Mavs are going to slow the Suns down; however, they have got to stick to what they do best. Playing an uptempo game with the Suns will be suicide. Hopefully, the Mavs won't be stuck in phantom foul trouble like in the last series. Let 'em play refs! Let 'em play! I hope the Mavs win in 4 but I think 6 should get the job done.

alexamenos · 05-24-2006, 03:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by banpeikun

nice analysis on the rebounding stats. we should probably crush them on the boards, even more if avery can keep a center in the game and play it at our pace.

indeedy....whether we can keep a 5 on the floor is going to be an interesting thing to watch. I kind of figure that it's a real good sign if Mavs get 35 min, 10+ and 10+ out of Damp and Diop.

cheers

GP · 05-24-2006, 03:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alexamenos

indeedy....whether we can keep a 5 on the floor is going to be an interesting thing to watch. I kind of figure that it's a real good sign if Mavs get 35 min, 10+ and 10+ out of Damp and Diop.

cheers

Do you think Powell or DJ will get any burn in this series? How about Armstrong? He seems to have the footspeed and the savy to bother Nash.

alexamenos · 05-24-2006, 03:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SirChaz

WOW!!!!

.1 and .2 percent higher than the amazing MAVS?!?!?!

That's gaudy!!!!

A lot of good it did them too.

54% is pretty gaudy -- if you figure that there are about 90 rebounds in an up-tempo game, pulling down 54% of the rebounds means about 7 more possessions per game than the opponent. If we figure a reasonably good offensive team can score on 3 out of 7 possessions, that's about 6 points per game difference by itself.

That may not be enough of an advantage for a 45 win team to take a series from 54 win team with home court advantage, but if a 60 win team has that sort of advantage (along with homecourt), it could easily be decisive.

cheers

alexamenos · 05-24-2006, 04:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GP

Do you think Powell or DJ will get any burn in this series? How about Armstrong? He seems to have the footspeed and the savy to bother Nash.

Powell and DJ -- I'd guess not at all, just imagining that AJ will favor experience over experimentation.

DA -- maybe, but I really expect Terry and Harris to spend much less time on the court together than in the SA series. Pt being, I expect Terry and Harris to get all of the minutes at the 1.

Nash normally plays the first 9-10 minutes of the first quarter -- I'd bet Harris doesn't get the start, but comes off the bench at around the 6 minute mark to really push Nash for a few minutes.

anywho...Griff will probably be the guy to pick up some more minutes this series.

Cheers

Simon2 · 05-24-2006, 04:40 PM

Is Kurt Thomas is available and the Suns play him, they will lose. Why? That gives Damp and Diop someone to guard. If Damp and Diop and in the game, that will surely mean dominance on both boards, better defense and better outlet passes. Kurt Thomas will hurt the Suns chances. The only chance they really have is to play small ball and force the Mavs to play small ball too. If they play KT, they play into Mavs hands.

MavKikiNYC · 05-24-2006, 04:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GP

Do you think Powell or DJ will get any burn in this series? How about Armstrong? He seems to have the footspeed and the savy to bother Nash.

Would like to see DA match up with Nash at points throughout the game, jumping in front of him on drives to try to draw a charge, or at least create a good spine-rattling collision.

6 times to the floor, coupled with interminable bone-crushing picks from Dampier et al....

Wear them down.

alexamenos · 05-24-2006, 04:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Simon2

Is Kurt Thomas is available and the Suns play him, they will lose. Why? That gives Damp and Diop someone to guard. If Damp and Diop and in the game, that will surely mean dominance on both boards, better defense and better outlet passes. Kurt Thomas will hurt the Suns chances. The only chance they really have is to play small ball and force the Mavs to play small ball too. If they play KT, they play into Mavs hands.

I generally agree -- KT doesn't hurt the Mavs at all.

nashtymavsfan13 · 05-24-2006, 06:13 PM

Mavs in 5 or 6.

No way this series goes 7 games.

Thespiralgoeson · 05-24-2006, 06:27 PM

I love how the guy says Devin won't be able to handle the pressure that comes deep in the playoffs because he couldn't handle the pressure against the Spurs.

Yeah, that's right. It had nothing to do with the Spurs' defense. Nah, he just couldn't handle the pressure.

chumdawg · 05-24-2006, 06:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MavKikiNYC

Would like to see DA match up with Nash at points throughout the game, jumping in front of him on drives to try to draw a charge, or at least create a good spine-rattling collision.

6 times to the floor, coupled with interminable bone-crushing picks from Dampier et al....

Wear them down.

Nash really isn't the kind of player that is going to pick up a lot of charges nor run himself into a lot of picks. Can't see DA being terribly effective in this regard.