Can someone post the Hollinger chat from today? - Dallas-Mavs.com Forums

endrity · 03-05-2007, 06:33 PM

Thanks to anyone that does.

jthig32 · 03-05-2007, 06:39 PM

Welcome to The Show! On Monday, NBA columnist John Hollinger will stop by to talk about the NBA season.
Send your questions now and join John in The Show Monday at 2 p.m. ET.
Hollinger archives: Columns | Chats

John Hollinger: Greetings everyone. For those who haven't seen it, Forbes magazine rated Kevin McHale as the No. 1 GM in sports this week. I can't wait for their upcoming issues that rate Darfur as the world's No. 1 tourist destination, Cheez Wiz as America's top food product, and "Cabin Boy" as the century's best film. On to the chat...

Firpo (North Arlington, NJ): I ask this constantly on these sites and no one ever answers me...If Steve Nash's career ended right now..is he a Hall of Famer? Keep in mind career averages of 14, 7.5, and 3, with no Finals appearrances.

John Hollinger: It would be completely unprecedented for a player of Nash's quality not to make it. The career averages are meaningless because he took so long to get his career going.

Marcos (Miami,Fl.): Hey John, how do you feel on Wade's return and would he be healthy enough to guide Miami to repeat?

John Hollinger: Here's the thing: Even if he comes back, I believe he can't return until there's only a week or two left in the season. Which means the supporting cast still has about a month to keep the ship afloat before we can even start talking about Miami's playoff scenarios. And I do worry about what's going to happen once he takes the first hit on that shoulder, especially since his whole game is driving to the basket and he takes about four nasty spills a game.

Mad Mike (Houston): John: Your take on the end of the Warrior/Wiz game yesterday? Also, what can the Warriors do to fix this team as it seems they have hit a wall. Thanks, MM

John Hollinger: I don't know what Nelly's history is with those refs, and obviously I wasn't courtside to hear what was said. But as mad as the W's are about the call, if Nelly really dropped on F-bomb on the ref like then he should only be blaming himself for letting his temper cost the team a game. As far as Golden State's fixes, getting Baron Davis and Jason Richardson on the court at the same time would be a good start.

Matt (Glendale, CA): John, do you think the sixers will have two lottery picks, there own, and Denver's?

John Hollinger: No, Denver will still make the playoffs, I don't think the Clips and Hornets are good enough to keep up with them. But that would be quite a coup for Philly if it turned out the other way, huh? And I don't believe the pick is protected.

Mad Mike (Houston): John: Baron will always have injuries. Should they limit him to 22-25 minutes a game and get a solid # 2 PG, to back him up? Thanks, MM

John Hollinger: I'm really not sure that would prevent the injuries. In which case you'd be limiting his minutes for no reason whatsoever.

A.J. (Chicago): When Phoenix loses to lowly Philadelphia with Marion out of the lineup, where are all the columns proclaiming him the MVP?

John Hollinger: This is a great point. If you looked at on-court vs. off-court stats last season, it was Marion, not Nash, that was the indispensable Sun; in fact it wasn't close. This year Nash's differential is better, but Marion's is still huge. It's just he misses so few games that people don't start on the "They're nothing without Marion" arguments the way they've done during Nash's absences.

Bill (Philly): Why are the Sixers winning and how can we make them stop?

John Hollinger: For one thing, Andre Iguodala has played a whole lot better since around the Iverson trade. Some will pin this on Iverson, obviously, but even in the games AI missed the other AI wasn't putting up the kind of numbers he is now. As far as the lottery stuff, goes, don't sweat it, you're really not hurting your chances that much.

Tyler (nyc): Knicks have been playing with alot of heart, any chance they win the atlantic division this year?

John Hollinger: Atnatic Division is a major stretch, even with Toronto struggling right now making up 4.5 games is asking a lot. Also, remember that the Nets will have Jefferson back sometime in the next week or so, and Knicks still trail them by half a game. That said, the miraculous recovery of Steve Francis (chortle, chortle) has helped, they only have two and a half games to make up on Miami and I believe they own the tie break.

Dennis, Honolulu: What if Oden and Durant look at the teams with the top 2 picks and decide to stay another year? Where does that leave Ainge, King, and all the other GM's banking on those youngsters saving their jobs?

John Hollinger: I don't think they'd based their decision on that, just because it would basically cost them about $10 million five years down the road when they're on the last year of their rookie contract instead of the first year of a max extension. If they want to stay, they'll stay,but if they feel like turning pro, I don't think an internal "Memphis vs. Philadelphia" debate is likely to swing it.

Chris Elliot : THESE PIPES ARE CLEEEEEEAAAAAN!!!!

John Hollinger: Wrong movie. Give me a Cabin Boy quote and then I'll be impressed. I saw it in the theater and, let me tell ya, that was about as bad a use of two hours as I've ever come up with.

jim (philly): Why would Oden stay in college when his teammates refuse to pass him the ball?

John Hollinger: LOL ... the college game is not made to be easy for bigs. Teams just sag, sag, sag and force the guards to make all the plays.

Jon (Newark, NJ): Realistically are the nets going to make the playoffs? if they do, is there any chance they can get out of the first round?

John Hollinger: Yes, with Jefferson coming back, Wade out and the Knicks and Magic looking feeble, I expect Jersey to be there. But I don't expect them to stick around for long.

Jeff (West Orange, NJ): I hear the Darfur tourism board is upset with you. Now they won't allow you to visit the country. Regrets?

John Hollinger: Guess I'll have to change my plane tickets. Good thing I had Haiti as my Plan B.

John Hollinger: (Since we're on the topic I should probably mention that what's happening in Darfur is actually really, really horrible and the world's response has been something less than inspiring. But labeling Kevin McHale as the most successful GM in sports is about the most patently idiotic thing I've ever seen, so much so that I didn't even realize until just now that Billy King was only a couple spots behind him.)

Ragan (pa): I understand you don't think tanking works (only three of the worst teams in the recent history have gotten #1 pick, etc), but with a win last night the sixers moved from 3rd worst, into a tie for 6th worst, and the way they are playing right now it wouldn't be shocking if they ended up with the 8-10th pick or higher! Regardless of the chances of getting Oden or Durant, that's a big difference from #3 for a rebuilding team, is it not?

John Hollinger: I agree that Philly's situation is a little unusual since there are four teams at 22-38 and they're about to pass the other three, and that there's another pack of three teams with 35 losses that they're also in danger of passing. That said, they don't have many cupcakes left on the schedule so this may be their high-water mark.

John Hollinger: I agree that Philly's situation is a little unusual since there are four teams at 22-38 and they're about to pass the other three, and that there's another pack of three teams with 35 losses that they're also in danger of passing. That said, they don't have many cupcakes left on the schedule so this may be their high-water mark.

Matt Hanna (NYC): John, what exactly was their basis for putting McHale number one? Seriously, did they give any insight to the criteria they used for rating the GMs?

John Hollinger: they compared the team's record to that of their predecessor, and gave some kind of bonus for keeping salaries down. Since the T'wolves were an expansion team when McHale got there, the bar was set real low. Same goes for King and the mess that preceded him in Philly, which was how they won the Iverson lottery in the first place.

Ted, SLC: John, I need a power rankings explanation please: Last Thursday, Dallas beat Cleveland, but the next day, the Mavs' rating had dropped from 108.856 to 108.368 and the Cavs' rating went up from 102.966 to 103.289. How does that happen?

John Hollinger: I'll give you two explanations: 1) there's a three-point bonus for the road team and the Mavs won by three, so the computer basically saw it as a draw, and 2) If that happens, as one might expect, the lower-rated team will tend to move up and the higher-rated team will tend to move down.

Ed (Michigan): If Kevin McHale is #1 wouldn't that make Matt Millen #2?

John Hollinger: Clearly, an oversight by the folks at Forbes. And how do you make a list like this and leave out the entire Babcock family?

Jim (Boston): John, what would it take for the Bulls to get over the hump in the Eastern Conference (assuming Pau and KG aren't about to be waived)? Is there something more to it than the shooters just getting hot at the right time?

John Hollinger: Even now, I think they're as good as anybody in the conference. They need Nocioni to come back and it would help if the two rookies start to turn the corner (Thomas sure looks like he's getting there), but mostly with the Bulls it comes down to whether the jumpers are falling.

Chris (NYC): Has Tyson Chandler finally figured it all out? His play elevated when Chris Paul went out, then elevated AGAIN when Paul came back.

John Hollinger: It's hard not to be impressed with the improvement he's shown this season; to the point that one has to wonder if the Bulls would have been better off keeping him and not signing Wallace.

Ted, SLC: Gotcha. As thanks for the explanation, this one's for you... Nathanial (Cabin Boy): "I overheard the captain saying it would be jolly-jack splendid to spend a fortnight or two in Hawaii" Kenny: "Yea... that sounds like the captain... you do good impressions."

John Hollinger: Now does everyone see what they missed? Anyone out there jealous they didn't see it? Anyone?

rick(Toronto): John, how likely are the Raptors to a) win the Atlantic and b) win a playoff round ?

John Hollinger: Extremely likely to win the Atlantic; don't overreact to the past two games. As far as winning a playoff round, I'd like to see who they get as an opponent first. If they can get No. 3 and play a No. 6 Indiana team I like their odds a lot. A 4/5 battle with Cleveland or Chicago, not so much.

Miles WYO: Jerry Sloan coach of the year?

John Hollinger: I'd still put Mitchell, Van Gundy and Avery Johnson ahead of him, but he'll get votes, and he's going to be a sentimental choice since he's never won.

Seba (Fort Worth): I think your power ranking formula doesn't account for how much a team gets up to play another. Once the Mavs hit double digits on their win streak and everyone is mentioning 70 wins they have been getting eveyone's A-game. How can you really fit that into the equation?

John Hollinger: Even if there were validity to this, which I greatly doubt, are you really saying the zero-time champion Mavs are the team everybody would be all geeked up to play against?

Jack (Toronto): Raps have looked lacklustre at best in the last week or so. How important is il Mago (Bargniani) to this team? Not a good performance against the Cavs without him in the lineup.

John Hollinger: I think it's a stretch to blame this on Bargnani's absence considering a) they gave up 120 points and b) Bargnani can't guard my keyboard, meaning that he probably couldn't have done much to prevent the outcome.

Ryan (NJ): I'm sure your tired of hearing it, but how do ya put the Spurs in front of the Mavs?...I'm very pro-Spurs, and I wouldn't even put the Mavs anywhere else but number 1, numbers or no-numbers.

John Hollinger: Basically, the diference is that Dallas is beating people, while San Antonio is beating the tar out of people. They beat Houston on the road, by 23, without Tony Parker. That was the second night of a back-to-back; the previous night they won by 24 against Orlando. In their past eight games they aolso beat New Jersey by 25, Seattle by 31, Denver by 15, and Torontoy by 16 after being up 26 at halftime (though that latter datum doesn't go into the rankings). So San Antonio's play of late has been the more impressive of the two teams.

Jason (Lewes, DE): How many questions or comments do you recieve per session? Is there any rhyme or reason to what questions you choose?

John Hollinger: I usually get around 1,000 questions per session, sometimes more if it's an interesting time of year. I pick them based on a) which ones show up on my screen of most recent questions, and b) which one of those are actually interesting and/or sane.

Matt Hanna (NYC): John, Dallas is 50-5 in there last 55. Why can't you just admit that maybe you need to fine-tune your formula? Don't be so stubborn. You'd be a liar if you didn't admit that when you saw the Spurs rank ahead of the Mavs, you didn't check your numbers over and over again.

John Hollinger: The 50-5 is only relevant if we think it means they'll go 50-5 in their next 55 gtames. But Dallas doesn't have the point differential of a team that good (or of a 70-win team, for that matter); usually you need to be around +10 points per game to win at that clip. Which suggests they're not going to keep up this torrid pace forever, certainly not if it means eking out every 5-or-less game, which are basically 50-50 propositions.

David (Baltimore, MD): Youre explanation of Dallas V San Antonio is flawed. You claim recent point spread, however on your power rankings the spurs margin of victory for L25% is 10.53 while the Mavs is 11.73. SO how can the spurs be ahead of the mavs?

John Hollinger: That was the condensed version, just pointing out how well they've played of late. Spurs bigger edge on Dallas is the season stats -- they have a stronger scoring margin and, an underrated factor, have played five more road games.

Jake (Oregon): Are you still thinking the Jazz are more likely to lose the first round in the playoffs than win? This looks like a team that can beat LA and Houston.

John Hollinger: Yao Ming comes back tonight, so you might need to revise the Houston comment. Wouldn't be shocked if Utah won a round, but they'll be the underdog for sure.

John Hollinger: Folks, that's allt he time I have for now, but I'll be back at my regular time next week and we can talk more NBA then.

jthig32 · 03-05-2007, 06:45 PM

Quote:

Seba (Fort Worth): I think your power ranking formula doesn't account for how much a team gets up to play another. Once the Mavs hit double digits on their win streak and everyone is mentioning 70 wins they have been getting eveyone's A-game. How can you really fit that into the equation?

John Hollinger: Even if there were validity to this, which I greatly doubt, are you really saying the zero-time champion Mavs are the team everybody would be all geeked up to play against?

I'm sorry, but if John doesn't think teams get up more for games against elite teams, especially teams that are on a roll like the Mavs, then he's never played or watched sports, period.

Hell just watch a couple Mavs games. If you don't think Cleveland and Orlando threw their very best at us last week, you are insane.

endrity · 03-05-2007, 06:55 PM

Thank for posting this, and yes I agree that the Mavs will have everybody's best shot until the end of the season.

LRB · 03-05-2007, 07:23 PM

Hollinger = over educated idiot

"The 50-5 is only relevant if we think it means they'll go 50-5 in their next 55 gtames. But Dallas doesn't have the point differential of a team that good (or of a 70-win team, for that matter); usually you need to be around +10 points per game to win at that clip. Which suggests they're not going to keep up this torrid pace forever, certainly not if it means eking out every 5-or-less game, which are basically 50-50 propositions. "

So does this mean if the mavs win 70+ games and have a point differential significantly below +10, that Hollinger's theories are self admitted full of shit and not worth the price of used toliet paper?

Dirkadirkastan · 03-05-2007, 09:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LRB

So does this mean if the mavs win 70+ games and have a point differential significantly below +10, that Hollinger's theories are self admitted full of shit and not worth the price of used toliet paper?

Save this for a future Hollinger chat question.

wmbwinn · 03-05-2007, 10:10 PM

Ted, SLC: John, I need a power rankings explanation please: Last Thursday, Dallas beat Cleveland, but the next day, the Mavs' rating had dropped from 108.856 to 108.368 and the Cavs' rating went up from 102.966 to 103.289. How does that happen?

John Hollinger: I'll give you two explanations: 1) there's a three-point bonus for the road team and the Mavs won by three, so the computer basically saw it as a draw, and 2) If that happens, as one might expect, the lower-rated team will tend to move up and the higher-rated team will tend to move down.
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The above logic that the home team has a 3 point handicap is ludicrous. The Suns have only lost one game on the road in the Eastern conference. The Mavs seemed to play better on the road in the playoffs last year than they did at home. The road/home issue is over-rated. More evidence of a flawed program/formula

Male30Dan · 03-05-2007, 10:13 PM

Any team ranked ahead of the Mavs right now is just rediculous!

wmbwinn · 03-05-2007, 10:14 PM

Ryan (NJ): I'm sure your tired of hearing it, but how do ya put the Spurs in front of the Mavs?...I'm very pro-Spurs, and I wouldn't even put the Mavs anywhere else but number 1, numbers or no-numbers.

John Hollinger: Basically, the diference is that Dallas is beating people, while San Antonio is beating the tar out of people. They beat Houston on the road, by 23, without Tony Parker. That was the second night of a back-to-back; the previous night they won by 24 against Orlando. In their past eight games they aolso beat New Jersey by 25, Seattle by 31, Denver by 15, and Torontoy by 16 after being up 26 at halftime (though that latter datum doesn't go into the rankings). So San Antonio's play of late has been the more impressive of the two teams.
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go read axelamenos (I hope I spelled that right, going off memory) post where he argues that the Hollinger system is based on an arbitrary assumption that the last 25% of the season is the range of games to address for "recent" numbers. That well written post demonstrated that if the percentage were the last 35% of the season or the last (most recent) 15% of the season, that the Mavs would be #1.

The Hollinger formula is based on an arbitrary assumption or choice of the unqualified/undefended use of a rigid 25% of the most recent games...

wmbwinn · 03-05-2007, 10:24 PM

Matt Hanna (NYC): John, Dallas is 50-5 in there last 55. Why can't you just admit that maybe you need to fine-tune your formula? Don't be so stubborn. You'd be a liar if you didn't admit that when you saw the Spurs rank ahead of the Mavs, you didn't check your numbers over and over again.

John Hollinger: The 50-5 is only relevant if we think it means they'll go 50-5 in their next 55 gtames. But Dallas doesn't have the point differential of a team that good (or of a 70-win team, for that matter); usually you need to be around +10 points per game to win at that clip. Which suggests they're not going to keep up this torrid pace forever, certainly not if it means eking out every 5-or-less game, which are basically 50-50 propositions.

David (Baltimore, MD): Youre explanation of Dallas V San Antonio is flawed. You claim recent point spread, however on your power rankings the spurs margin of victory for L25% is 10.53 while the Mavs is 11.73. SO how can the spurs be ahead of the mavs?

John Hollinger: That was the condensed version, just pointing out how well they've played of late. Spurs bigger edge on Dallas is the season stats -- they have a stronger scoring margin and, an underrated factor, have played five more road games.
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http://www.dougstats.com/06-07Teams.html
1) the Mavs at this point have averaged 8.6 points per game scored more than they have allowed to be scored against them. The Spurs are a close 8.5 for the season. So, the Spurs are not superior for the season in this category.

2)The Mavs are the ONLY team in the NBA ranked in the top ten in both the offensive category AND the defensive category (based on points scored for offense and points allowed for defense):

Team Scoring Team Defense
Team Pts/Game Team Pts/Game
1 PhoenixSuns 110.5 1 SanAntonioSpurs 90.0
2 DenverNuggets 105.0 2 HoustonRockets 91.1
3 GSWarriors 104.9 3 DallasMavericks 91.8
4 WashingtonWizards 104.8 4 DetroitPistons 92.2
5 LALakers 103.3 5 ClevelandCavaliers 93.4
6 UtahJazz 102.6 6 OrlandoMagic 94.2
7 SacramentoKings 101.0 7 ChicagoBulls 94.9
8 MemphisGrizzlies 100.9 8 NOrleansHornets 95.2
9 DallasMavericks 100.4 9 LAClippers 96.4
10 MilwaukeeBucks 100.4 10 MiamiHeat 97.7

3)At some point, he will have to figure out that the hypothesis that winning games where the score is within a 5 point margin is a 50/50 proposition is a flawed analysis. I've forgotten the poster's name who did the math on the probabilities on the Mavs' victories in close games that shows that the chance that the Mavs could win so many close games on a probability of 50/50 is ludicrous. It was statistically determined that the odds for the Mavs were around 85/15 in favor of a Mavs' win in close games. Anyway, that great post on this board should be referenced and given credit. Hollinger is wrong here also.

wmbwinn · 03-05-2007, 10:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wmbwinn

Ryan (NJ): I'm sure your tired of hearing it, but how do ya put the Spurs in front of the Mavs?...I'm very pro-Spurs, and I wouldn't even put the Mavs anywhere else but number 1, numbers or no-numbers.

John Hollinger: Basically, the diference is that Dallas is beating people, while San Antonio is beating the tar out of people. They beat Houston on the road, by 23, without Tony Parker. That was the second night of a back-to-back; the previous night they won by 24 against Orlando. In their past eight games they aolso beat New Jersey by 25, Seattle by 31, Denver by 15, and Torontoy by 16 after being up 26 at halftime (though that latter datum doesn't go into the rankings). So San Antonio's play of late has been the more impressive of the two teams.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

go read axelamenos (I hope I spelled that right, going off memory) post where he argues that the Hollinger system is based on an arbitrary assumption that the last 25% of the season is the range of games to address for "recent" numbers. That well written post demonstrated that if the percentage were the last 35% of the season or the last (most recent) 15% of the season, that the Mavs would be #1.

The Hollinger formula is based on an arbitrary assumption or choice of the unqualified/undefended use of a rigid 25% of the most recent games...

http://www.dallas-mavs.com/vb/showthread.php?t=29008

go read Axelamenos's post there...

wmbwinn · 03-05-2007, 10:57 PM

http://www.dallas-mavs.com/vb/showth...50+proposition

explains the value of using a points differential or margin of victory ranking...

--------------------------------------------

"From Fish at Dallas Basketball:
If point differential is the be-all and end-all, then the Points Differential Champion should win the NBA Finals, right? Or at least that team should make it to the Finals, right?

Here are the last four years of Finals participants, and their point differential rank:

2006 Miami (5th) over Dallas (3rd)

2005 SA (4th) over Det (5th)

2004 Det (2nd) over LAL (7th)

2003 SA (3rd) over NJ (4th)

Now, I'm no statgeek. But I can read. And I don't see the team with the top differential there anywhere."

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nice post, left texas

wmbwinn · 03-05-2007, 11:05 PM

Here are the last 15 NBA champs, along with their league wide ranking in win percentage and point differential:

Year Champ Win % Point Differential
2006 Heat 5th 5th
2005 Spurs 2nd 1st
2004 Pistons 6th 2nd
2003 Spurs 1st 3rd
2002 Lakers 2nd 2nd
2001 Lakers 2nd 7th
2000 Lakers 1st 1st
1999 Spurs 1st 1st
1998 Bulls 1st 1st
1997 Bulls 1st 1st
1996 Bulls 1st 1st
1995 Rockets 10th 10th
1994 Rockets 2nd 6th
1993 Bulls 3rd 2nd
1992 Bulls 1st 1st

Average rank: win %: 2.6, point diff.: 2.9

Over that time, winning percentage has an edge over point differential in predicting the champion, but its very slight.

http://www.dallas-mavs.com/vb/showth...ht=probability

post #54

Another nice history exam that shows that winning percentage is a better predictor thatn point differential...

that refutes Hollinger squarely....

wmbwinn · 03-05-2007, 11:14 PM

It took forever, but I finally found the post that shows that Hollinger's theory that games decided by 5 points or less are a 50/50 proposition is false for the Mavs...
--------------------------------------------

"Let's look at this from the other angle.

The Mavs are 21-4 in games decided by 9 or fewer points. Is that really determined by "luck"?

If close games were a matter of a coin flip, i.e. the probability the Mavs pull out a win in a close game is 50%, then the odds of winning 21 or more out of 25 is 0.04%. So it probably isn't pure luck.

What if they were 60% likely to pull out a single close win? Still only a 0.95% shot at winning 21+ of 25.

70%? A modest 9.05%.

At 80% there is finally a decent chance with 42.07%. For there to be a 50% chance of winning 21+ out of 25, there would have to be an 81.57% chance of winning a single close game.

Remarkably, you get almost the exact same result for the Mavs' 12-2 record in games decided by 5 or less. In order for the odds of winning 12+ out of 14 to be 50%, the odds for any one game must be 81.35%.

Yes, I think winning close games is a matter of skill, not luck"

http://www.dallas-mavs.com/vb/showth...ht=probability

post 122

wmbwinn · 03-05-2007, 11:36 PM

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
http://www.courtsidetimes.net/articles/337/
by Justin Kubatko | permalink | trackback | comments |
» Visit the author's site: http://www.basketball-reference.com

MFFL quoted the above article, see
http://www.dallas-mavs.com/vb/showth...ht=probability

post 118

---------------------------------

Basically, this article concludes that winning close games is something that 27% of NBA champs have failed to do, but that winning frequent blowouts is something most champs do.

So, I looked at Febuary and March to date for the Suns, Mavs, and Spurs:

Suns: won 3 blowouts and were blown out once (by the way, the quoted article defines a blowout as a 15 point difference in a game).

Spurs: won 7 blowouts and lost by a blowout margin twice

Mavs: won 6 blowouts and haven't lost at all in Febuary and March... much less losing by a blowout margin.

Actually, the Mavs have only lost 3 games by a blowout margin. They were losses to the Rockets on Nov. 4, Clippers Nov. 8, and the Jazz Dec. 11

The Spurs have only had 3 blow out losses but two of them happened in Febuary and Hollinger is saying that the Spurs are great based on recent games...

The Suns only have one blowout loss for the season and it also happened in Febuary.

wmbwinn · 03-05-2007, 11:37 PM

Hollinger annoys me. I'll have to get over it and quit dwelling on it I suppose. I hope quoting other posters isn't against the rules...

rmacomic · 03-05-2007, 11:44 PM

[QUOTE= [B]Chris Elliot :[/B] THESE PIPES ARE CLEEEEEEAAAAAN!!!!

John Hollinger: Wrong movie. Give me a Cabin Boy quote and then I'll be impressed. I saw it in the theater and, let me tell ya, that was about as bad a use of two hours as I've ever come up with.

This line was in the movie, in fact it was even used in the trailer. If you actualy had seen the film you might now. Also you would have seen some of the best inane chatter comedy writing of the 90's. Lines like. "I'm sorry I wasn't listening to you. I was just think about how much fun it is to roast pumpkin seeds." Even David Letterman in one of his few movie roles.

Asshole probably just used Cabin Boy because his editor won't let him reference Ishtar anymore.

Ted, SLC: John, I need a power rankings explanation please: Last Thursday, Dallas beat Cleveland, but the next day, the Mavs' rating had dropped from 108.856 to 108.368 and the Cavs' rating went up from 102.966 to 103.289. How does that happen?

John Hollinger: I'll give you two explanations: 1) there's a three-point bonus for the road team and the Mavs won by three, so the computer basically saw it as a draw, and 2) If that happens, as one might expect, the lower-rated team will tend to move up and the higher-rated team will tend to move down.

3) Also, I don't really have a system. Here at ESPN we do lowest common denominator reporting, if we don't mention enough recognizable names in a week we don't fill our quota. So putting The Spurs ahead of the Mavs guarantees the morons who actually value what we say, will keep coming back. It's the same reason guy's like Ron Artest and Allen Iverson grace the cover of our magazine, even though they haven't been relevant all year. Sports Sensationalism. Dumbing down the American sports fan.

Seba (Fort Worth): I think your power ranking formula doesn't account for how much a team gets up to play another. Once the Mavs hit double digits on their win streak and everyone is mentioning 70 wins they have been getting eveyone's A-game. How can you really fit that into the equation?

John Hollinger: Even if there were validity to this, which I greatly doubt, are you really saying the zero-time champion Mavs are the team everybody would be all geeked up to play against?

Anyone want to sniff glue?

Ryan (NJ): I'm sure your tired of hearing it, but how do ya put the Spurs in front of the Mavs?...I'm very pro-Spurs, and I wouldn't even put the Mavs anywhere else but number 1, numbers or no-numbers.

John Hollinger: Basically, the diference is that Dallas is beating people, while San Antonio is beating the tar out of people. They beat Houston on the road, by 23, without Tony Parker. That was the second night of a back-to-back; the previous night they won by 24 against Orlando. In their past eight games they aolso beat New Jersey by 25, Seattle by 31, Denver by 15, and Torontoy by 16 after being up 26 at halftime (though that latter datum doesn't go into the rankings). So San Antonio's play of late has been the more impressive of the two teams.

Of course this argument was never near my lips when I had the Suns ranked above the Mavs after they won 17 in a row. Have you seen Nash pass? Wow, it's like watching John Stockon... if he played defense like a girl who plays defense like a gay.

Matt Hanna (NYC): John, Dallas is 50-5 in there last 55. Why can't you just admit that maybe you need to fine-tune your formula? Don't be so stubborn. You'd be a liar if you didn't admit that when you saw the Spurs rank ahead of the Mavs, you didn't check your numbers over and over again.

John Hollinger: The 50-5 is only relevant if we think it means they'll go 50-5 in their next 55 gtames. But Dallas doesn't have the point differential of a team that good (or of a 70-win team, for that matter); usually you need to be around +10 points per game to win at that clip. Which suggests they're not going to keep up this torrid pace forever, certainly not if it means eking out every 5-or-less game, which are basically 50-50 propositions.

55 games or 67% of a season is not enough to go by, however the last 25 games or 30% is a much better judge of how a team will do. That's what we call conveinent logic. If it makes what you're already going to say work, use it instead.

David (Baltimore, MD): Youre explanation of Dallas V San Antonio is flawed. You claim recent point spread, however on your power rankings the spurs margin of victory for L25% is 10.53 while the Mavs is 11.73. SO how can the spurs be ahead of the mavs?

John Hollinger: That was the condensed version, just pointing out how well they've played of late. Spurs bigger edge on Dallas is the season stats -- they have a stronger scoring margin and, an underrated factor, have played five more road games.

The expanded version also includes my invite to Tony and Eva's wedding. Isn't it great how I am constantly changing the numbers I use, Last 25 games or the entire season, or whatever keeps you guessing. When they said insanity is the best defense they weren't kidding. It's hard to fire a writer when he's sniffing your crotch and howling at the moon. Huntr Thompson eat your heart out.

QUOTE]

Dirkadirkastan · 03-06-2007, 03:21 AM

I remember that article posted by MFFL, and I thought it was very strange.

It compares close game analysis versus blowout analysis, and concludes that while close games do not make good predictions for who will be the champion, champions do tend to win most blowouts.

In my opinion, it's a leap to believe that blowouts can be analyzed the same way as close games. That's because of the different nature of the two. A close win can easily turn into a close loss in the final minutes of a game and vice versa, but obviously that's not true for blowouts, i.e. a blowout win will not suddenly turn into a blowout loss, at least not in the same fashion. The relation between blowout wins and losses is not the same as the relation between close wins and losses.

It's no surprise elite teams blow out their opponent more often than they themselves get blown out, but I don't really see what blowout wins and blowout losses have to do with each other in the first place. To me, they're on opposite ends of the spectrum: blowout wins, close wins, close losses, blowout losses. I would be interested in seeing an explanation why blowout wins are significant and close wins are not. In other words, it seems contradictory to assume there's no skill at preventing a close win to becoming a close loss, while it's praiseworthy to prevent a blowout win from becoming a supposedly insignificant close win.

______________________

It's difficult to review the entire NBA to determine whether winning close games is a matter of luck or skill. First of all, it's a zero sum rule, so even if two teams playing head-to-head don't know what they're doing down the stretch, somebody is going to pull out the win anyway. So for those teams, winning close games is a matter of luck, and some will be lucky and have a good close game record. But that doesn't mean it's a matter of luck for everybody. After all, just about anyone on this forum can make an NBA 3-pointer, and for most of us, it's a matter of luck. But for sharpshooters in the NBA, it's clearly not.

Furthermore, no one ever claimed winning close games was a required skill for winning a championship, just that it was a skill. And just like any other skill, different elite teams will possess different degrees of that skill. So if there are a few champions in history that have a bad track record in close games, that doesn't necessarily mean nobody was ever good at winning close games; it probably just means those teams made up for that deficiency in some other department.

Usually Lurkin · 03-06-2007, 07:23 AM

dp

Usually Lurkin · 03-06-2007, 07:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wmbwinn

It took forever, but I finally found the post that shows that Hollinger's theory that games decided by 5 points or less are a 50/50 proposition is false for the Mavs...
--------------------------------------------

"Let's look at this from the other angle.

The Mavs are 21-4 in games decided by 9 or fewer points. Is that really determined by "luck"?

If close games were a matter of a coin flip, i.e. the probability the Mavs pull out a win in a close game is 50%, then the odds of winning 21 or more out of 25 is 0.04%. So it probably isn't pure luck.

I don't think the mavs w/l record is a fluke of chance, but . . .
Dirkadirkastan's coin flipper says that a 21 and 5 record should happen 4 out of every 100 26-game sets that are decided by 9 or less points, right? That's 1 out of every 25 times. There are 30 teams in the NBA. How many have 26 games decided by 9 or less points? In the history of the NBA, how many teams have had 26 games decided by 9 or less points? If Hollinger is correct, and those games are decided by chance, then 21 wins out of 26 will eventually happen.

Quote:

Originally Posted by wmbwinn

go read axelamenos (I hope I spelled that right, going off memory) post where he argues that the Hollinger system is based on an arbitrary assumption that the last 25% of the season is the range of games to address for "recent" numbers. That well written post demonstrated that if the percentage were the last 35% of the season or the last (most recent) 15% of the season, that the Mavs would be #1.

The Hollinger formula is based on an arbitrary assumption or choice of the unqualified/undefended use of a rigid 25% of the most recent games...

That's not how it works. His numbers were (probably) chosen under some criteria. Most likely he chose the numbers that historically have best predicted who would win the next game, or who would win the playoffs, or something.

Quote:

Originally Posted by wmbwinn

"From Fish at Dallas Basketball:
...Here are the last four years of Finals participants, and their point differential rank:

2006 Miami (5th) over Dallas (3rd)
2005 SA (4th) over Det (5th)
2004 Det (2nd) over LAL (7th)
2003 SA (3rd) over NJ (4th)

Now, I'm no statgeek. But I can read. And I don't see the team with the top differential there anywhere."

Those numbers are wrong. I think Fish corrected this in an update. SA was 1st, I believe. We barely beat them.

Dirkadirkastan · 03-06-2007, 07:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Usually Lurkin

I don't think the mavs w/l record is a fluke of chance, but . . .
Dirkadirkastan's coin flipper says that a 21 and 5 record should happen 4 out of every 100 26-game sets that are decided by 9 or less points, right? That's 1 out of every 25 times. There are 30 teams in the NBA. How many have 26 games decided by 9 or less points? In the history of the NBA, how many teams have had 26 games decided by 9 or less points? If Hollinger is correct, and those games are decided by chance, then 21 wins out of 26 will eventually happen.

POINT 04%. That's 1 in 2500!

Of course, now that they're 23-4, the updated number is 0.0155% (1 in 6400)

Usually Lurkin · 03-06-2007, 08:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dirkadirkastan

POINT 04%. That's 1 in 2500!

Of course, now that they're 23-4, the updated number is 0.0155% (1 in 6400)

my bad. I read it wrong and didn't think it out. It would be interesting to count up the number of (now) 27 game stretches of close games in the history of the NBA and plot out win percentages. Though it's unlikely that .01% will occur for any given 27 game stretch, given enough stretches, it's likely that it will happen somewhere.

We had a discussion in a stats class that I think illustrates a limitation of stats. One of the profs plotted out the world record breaking performances in some sport (long jump or 100 yard dash, I think), and compared the improvement curve to what would be expected by chance, and determined that the same curve would result if you started out drawing randomly from a single population of results. Very few people think that improvement in world records occurs by chance. And those are probably the same people that might think the Mavs record has occurred by chance.

alexamenos · 03-06-2007, 11:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wmbwinn

John Hollinger: I'll give you two explanations: 1) there's a three-point bonus for the road team and the Mavs won by three, so the computer basically saw it as a draw...

I like how Hollinger says that "the Computer" saw it as a draw as if a computer is capable of watching a basketball game and reading the boxscores and then making some judgment regarding the outcome of the game.

Perhaps Hollinger was just more comfortable placing the blame on the computer rather than saying "I instructed the computer to view a Mavericks win over the Cavaliers as a Cavs win over the Mavs."

Usually Lurkin · 03-06-2007, 12:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alexamenos

I like how Hollinger says that "the Computer" saw it as a draw as if a computer is capable of watching a basketball game and reading the boxscores and then making some judgment regarding the outcome of the game.

Perhaps Hollinger was just more comfortable placing the blame on the computer rather than saying "I instructed the computer to view a Mavericks win over the Cavaliers as a Cavs win over the Mavs."

That reminded me of an old NFL football tapes segment that had a lowly loser home team grinding out a 3 point loss to a better visiting team. They kicked a final second field goal to reduce the margin to 3 points. The home crowd went wild the losing players jumped for joy and dumped gatorade on their coach. "They beat the spread! They beat the spread! They beat the spread!" the announcer repeated.

LRB · 03-06-2007, 02:04 PM

What Hollinger is all of his anal retentive wisdom fails to see is that the object of NBA games is winning, not beating the spread, not coming close to winning, but winning. And a win by 1 point counts the same as a win by 100 points.

Now the object of an NBA season is to win a championship or if that is not a realistic goal to get closer to winning a championship in the future. To do this may cause your team to win by a lesser margin or even lose less games. The mavs are focused on winning the championship to the point that they are well prepared to lose regular season games to get themselves ready. However they keep winning in spite of this. But unlike the Suns who play their short rotation deep into the 4th quarter even when leading by 20+, Dallas tries to play a much larger rotation to prepare lesser players for the chance they are needed in the playoffs and to save their key players by limiting their minutes. Hollingers dumbass formula has no comprehension of this. His formula doesn't take into account injuries, back 2 back games, teams getting up to play the hot team, big leads lost by garbage time players, teams just having hot nights or cold nights (after all the NBA is a league of runs), or a host of other variables.

Yet Hollinger in all of his arrogant pompus assness, tries to preach that his formula is right and infalable. He's a jerk, a dumbass, and a couldn't find his own ass in the dark with a flashlight when it comes to his precious little formula which is based on junk statistics.

chumdawg · 03-06-2007, 11:08 PM

Tonight's game is the kind of thing Hollinger is talking about. With a couple minutes to go, it looked like it could easily come down to a one-possession game. But the Mavs pulled away and put it in the books by 13.

A lesser team is more likely to let it come down to the last couple possessions. This is why win margin does an excellent job, for the most part, of describing a team's performance over the course of the season.

wmbwinn · 03-06-2007, 11:18 PM

As posted above, if Hollinger is right, then a game decided by five points or less is a 50/50 proposition. If he right, the Mavs should have as many losses as wins in games decided by less than five points...

But, Hollinger is not right. If Hollinger is right and the Mavs' season is a fluke of statistical probabilities, then the Mavs are playing 1:6400 odds.
That is ludicrous.

It is silly to take one stat like points differential and try to turn it into a tool to predict the NBA game.

Now, if you go back 8 years or more, then Hollinger's model did seem to predict the outcome. But, the game has changed with rule changes and the evolution of the calls/refs and perhaps other factors. In the last 8 years or so, Hollinger's model has not predicted anything accurately.

There are other factors to consider. Hollinger (or a better statistics man) needs to discover why the Mavs are playing 1:6400 odds successfully and winning almost all of their games when the difference is five points or less. There has to be a modifying discovery that will change the formula to account for this anomaly (it is not an anomaly, it is evidence that Hollinger's formula is inaccurate in the NBA of the last almost decade).

I personally think that the shots taken differential is a big part of that modification. I have discussed this at length in the past.

Dirkadirkastan · 03-06-2007, 11:25 PM

I agree with your post, wmb, but for clarity, I'll just say that the 1/6400 is actually for nine points or less. That's because I did my own work separately from Hollinger and didn't catch his definition of "close game" at five points.

But for five points or less, it's still pretty far out there. At 50%, the likelihood of going 14-2 is around 1/478.

wmbwinn · 03-06-2007, 11:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dirkadirkastan

I agree with your post, wmb, but for clarity, I'll just say that the 1/6400 is actually for nine points or less. That's because I did my own work separately from Hollinger and didn't catch his definition of "close game" at five points.

But for five points or less, it's still pretty far out there. At 50%, the likelihood of going 14-2 is around 1/478.

Thanks for the clarification. It is still crazy to think that 1:478 odds can be explained away by anything that Hollinger has ever offered as an explanation.

Windmill360 · 03-06-2007, 11:34 PM

Hollinger should make a stat that says the difficulty of the game due to the size of the target on our back...... with every win it increases.

I don't think any other team friggin plays as hard (relatively) against anyone other than us

Did you ever think of that, Hollinger, you ass?

wmbwinn · 03-06-2007, 11:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Windmill360°

Hollinger should make a stat that says the difficulty of the game due to the size of the target on our back...... with every win it increases.

I don't think any other team friggin plays as hard (relatively) against anyone other than us

Did you ever think of that, Hollinger, you ass?

Agreed. The last 7 many games have felt like the opposing team was playing a playoff game against us. And, we have repeatedly knocked them out in the fourth quarter...

LRB · 03-07-2007, 12:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chumdawg

Tonight's game is the kind of thing Hollinger is talking about. With a couple minutes to go, it looked like it could easily come down to a one-possession game. But the Mavs pulled away and put it in the books by 13.

A lesser team is more likely to let it come down to the last couple possessions. This is why win margin does an excellent job, for the most part, of describing a team's performance over the course of the season.

Chum if Hollinger presented is arugment in a more resonable fashion such as more times than not or most of the time instead it's always true, I wouldn't give him such a hard time. I can see the argument that generally, teams with a higher MOV are playing at a higher level, as long as you allow for exceptions. Hollinger doesn't seem to want to allow for exceptions.

for example Hollinger states "John Hollinger: The 50-5 is only relevant if we think it means they'll go 50-5 in their next 55 gtames. But Dallas doesn't have the point differential of a team that good (or of a 70-win team, for that matter); usually you need to be around +10 points per game to win at that clip. Which suggests they're not going to keep up this torrid pace forever, certainly not if it means eking out every 5-or-less game, which are basically 50-50 propositions. " However he ignores that over the last 15 games Dallas is winning at an average of +10 points per game. And 16 > 25% of the 60 games that the Mavs have played by 1 game. Remember how Hollinger worships at the statistical alter of how a team performs over the last 25% of games played? He contradicts himself, projects his statistical analysis as absolute maximums without exception when at best they are just general rules of thumb. Surely he knows enough or should know enough to know he's wrong. So he's either a lying ahole or he's a really stupid dumbass or possibly both.

wmbwinn · 03-07-2007, 12:31 AM

The Spurs just beat Portland by smashing them in the fourth quarter 34-20. The Spurs hit four consecutive 3 pointers to kill Portland. Portland had the Spurs on the ropes all night and appeared poised to end the Spurs' winning streak.

That 14 point win in the fourth quarter meant the Spurs won by five points.

According to Hollinger, the Spurs won a 50-50 coin flip because "games decided by five points or less are a 50/50 proposition".

The Spurs did not win by luck or by the chance of a coin flip. They put the clamps on Portland in the last 3 minutes of the game and put their 3 best shooters into the game.

See some of my earlier posts about the Spurs in other threads. The Spurs are a very successful 3 point shooting team who defends against the 3 point shot very well and is ranked #2 on total defense. The Spurs are ranked #2 in FG% differential (they shoot well and prevent the other team from shooting well). The Spurs just did what the Spurs do best when it mattered. And, they did not give up when they were down 7 points with 3 minutes left in the game after they had been behind about the same amount the whole game...

Hollinger doesn't get it.

wmbwinn · 03-07-2007, 12:38 AM

Go look at the boxscore on the Portland/Spurs game. Portland beat the Spurs in every single statistical category EXCEPT for 3 pointers made. And, the difference in the number of 3 pointers made were those 4 made consecutively at the end of the game. Portland has to be sick to their stomachs...

chumdawg · 03-07-2007, 01:31 AM

A few things...

What Hollinger has accomplished--quite shrewdly, I might add--is to put basketball statwork "on the map," so to speak, in a similar manner that the baseball guys did a few years in back. That in itself is an accomplishment, and it's not one that I mind seeing. The fact that we all are talking about goes to show what a good job he/ESPN did.

Now, I highly suspect that the ESPN part of the "Hollinger/ESPN" subject had more to do with it than anything else. Hollinger is a very, very sharp stats guy, and I suspect that he knows far better than the rest of us what limitations his model has. But he was given, by ESPN, the job of designing a "power ranking" measure and he gave it his best effort. I *do* believe that his formula is his best effort at that task. He might take a little heat based on the outliers at the top side, but don't you know that ESPN is loving it. I mean, how many fans heard Hollinger's name for the first time this season?

So, we should really view it all for what it is. Namely, a design to get us all talking basketball. Bravo, in that regard.

Now, about point differentials. They hold up VERY well over the course of a lot of NBA history. They have usefulness besides just the team level. They are used on a unit level and all the way down to the individual player level. Again, they are VERY useful stats. And they are useful because they can be shown with statistical certainty to correlate very strongly with win percentages. Frankly, for anyone to argue otherwise would be entirely counterintuitive and, to me at least, borderline delusional.

But still, you must recognize what they are. Pythagorean win formulas (meaning, basically, the value of the exponent used) are designed in such a way that they will correlate most strongly to the large body of statistical history we have to work with. In short, they are correct because they are the most correct model we can find to match the historical data.

But they are still known to have some trouble on the edges. In other words, they do a whole lot better job of telling you that a team with a 0.00 margin of victory will have a .500 record than telling you that a team with a +10.00 margin of victory will win 70 games. And this is because of one good reason--one reason we are seeing this year with our Mavs: better teams do a better job of winning close games. So sometimes you will get a situation where a team has more wins than their margin of victory (or Pythag, or what have you) would suggest they should.

But don't throw the baby out with the bathwater. Consider, for example, two teams that both play the same five average opponents. One team wins all five games, by one point each. The other wins four games by 20 points apiece and loses the fifth game by one point. Do you believe the 5-0 team is demonstrably better than the 4-1 team?

The whole reason for the MOV stats is to look deeper than win percentage. If you simply want to know who won at the highest rate, you don't need to look any deeper than the results in the paper. Win percentage is already tracked. Stats guys are trying to get deeper. And sometimes they chance upon some interesting things. As I mentioned upthread, tonight's game is a great example of one team's exerting its superiority over the other. The Mavs/Nets game was within two possessions with two minutes left, and it could have easily devolved into a last-shot scenario. But the Mavs exerted their superiority before that happened. Shouldn't that be measurable by some parameter? Shouldn't we know that the Mavs beat the Nets by more than just a buzzer-beater that went in?

Consider a scenario where the Mavs play the Celtics 82 times in a year, but it's a one-minute game. The Celtics are going to win a lot of those contests. Stretch it out to a full 48 minutes, and the Celtics are going to be hard pressed to win more than a handful. This is what Hollinger is getting at when he talks about close games going either way. They do, more often than it seems some of you would like to believe. But the teams that don't let the games get down to one possession are, demonstrably, better teams.

Take the limitations in Hollinger's formula for what they are (and what they are is primarily a vehicle for media attention rather than inscrutably honest stats work), but don't ignore the underlying methodology. Hollinger is, most certainly, not a moron.

Five-ofan · 03-07-2007, 01:35 AM

am i the only one that finds hollingers ripping of forbes funny? he rips forbes for coming up with a statistical formula and stubbornly sticking by it no matter how obvious it is to the human eye that the result is wrong... sound like anyone else we know??

Dirkadirkastan · 03-07-2007, 01:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dirkadirkastan

it seems contradictory to assume there's no skill at preventing a close win to becoming a close loss, while it's praiseworthy to prevent a blowout win from becoming a supposedly insignificant close win.

This is the biggest flaw in the coin-flip analysis, in my opinion.

chumdawg · 03-07-2007, 01:55 AM

I don't understand. Are you saying that the team ahead by ten in the closing minutes that holds on to win by ten is not a more accomplished team than the one ahead two in the closing minutes that holds on to win by two?

What are you saying?

Dirkadirkastan · 03-07-2007, 02:12 AM

According to Hollinger, if you let a game slip from, say, a 12 point lead to a 4 point win, then you've lost all accomplishment and left the game to a coin flip, but if you let a 4 point lead slip to a 4 point loss, that's OK because the game was already in the realm of a coin flip anyway.

Personally, I think the latter is far worse than the former, but Hollinger seems to claim the opposite.

alexamenos · 03-07-2007, 11:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chumdawg

So, we should really view it all for what it is.

according to stein, his power-rankings were the most frequently viewed page on the espn website. espn desired to get more of this, and hence they desired to have a power-ranking which would be updated daily...enter Hollinger.