September 11, 2007
OPINION
The Politics of Petraeus
By John C. Hulsman
ABOUT DR. JOHN C. HULSMAN
Eva Knoll
Dr. John C. Hulsman is the Von Oppenheim Scholar in Residence at the German Council on Foreign Relations in Berlin (DGAP). He is president and co-founder of John C. Hulsman Enterprises, an international relations consulting firm. Formerly a senior fellow at the Heritage Foundation in Washington, Hulsman is also a member of the Council on Foreign Relations. He is a Contributing Editor to National Interest, one of the world’s foremost Foreign Policy journals.
The report by the US military's top man in Iraq has a little bit for everyone. Still, Petraeus' highly political case will change very little. It is unlikely he can convince the Democrats to stay the course in Iraq, and support for Bush's Iraq policies will likely continue even amongst wavering Republicans.
AP - President George W. Bush (right) and Gen. David Petraeus: Cherry-picked facts to bolster a shaky case
On Monday night, after a very long day of assessing what the report from General David Petraeus to Congress might say, I had a decision to make. I could watch the keenly awaited Congressional testimony of our senior American commander in Iraq, or take time off to listen to a new Bob Dylan CD I had brought back from America.
With little hesitation I opted for Dylan.
For the Petraeus Report has nothing to do with Middle Eastern realities; it has everything to do with American politics. For this is a report that will be seen as all things to all people -- and it will change very little.
The White House
For the White House, current poll numbers on Iraq make for grim reading. The new Associated Press-Ipsos poll, published this past Sunday, finds that by 59 to 34 percent, those surveyed think the Iraq war will be judged a historical mistake. This large, two-to-one ratio holds across the board; 58 to 36 percent think the surge is a flop. These numbers have barely moved in the past year. It is clear that the majority of Americans have made their minds up about the war, and think it is a catastrophe. Like a failed gambler coming to the end of his stake, the president is frantically looking around for someone to loan him some cash, or in this case public trust, so he can continue his spree. In desperation, the president has turned to General Petraeus.
But this is a political, not a policy strategy. The general has already said, all facts to the contrary, that the surge is working, that the extra 30,000 troops have achieved most of their military goals and can probably leave Iraq by the summer of 2008. For an administration beset by almost constant bad news, this pronouncement amounts to manna from heaven.
It does not matter that the general has cherry-picked factoids to bolster his shaky case (for example, he has moved a large number of Iraqis killed from the sectarian war category to the common crime category, without explanation), or that the general clearly admitted that the prime goal of the surge -- that a military offensive would give all the segments of the Iraqi elite time to make the political compromises necessary for stability -- has met with scant progress. The president's political goal is simple; to use the general's testimony to reassure enough wavering Republicans to 'stay the course,' so he can continue with his last throw of the dice.
The Republicans in Congress
For the Republicans in the Senate face a real problem. With Iraq consistently topping the list of people's concerns heading into the 2008 election, and with the war going so badly, even popular incumbents are getting very nervous. Moderate Republicans such as Susan Collins of Maine and Gordon Smith of Oregon, facing tough re-election campaigns, are going home to a barrage of criticism about their votes to authorize the Iraq war in the first place. With 22 of the 34 Senate seats that are up for election in 2008 now in Republican hands, it was always going to be a difficult year for the party. With Iraq looming over everything, it could well become disastrous.
The president's only hope is that the general's report is positive enough to keep these wavering Republicans on the reservation, with his infusion of good news. Any future cut-off of funding for Iraq would require a good deal of moderate Republican support. For they are the primary audience for the report, its terms underlying a political courting process undertaken by both the Democrats and the White House.
The Democrats
For the Democrats the Petraeus report is a danger. This well-regarded military leader, perhaps the finest serving officer in the American armed forces, has seemed set to contradict their position that the war is unwinnable. They must find a way to honor the man, while at the same time attacking his overly optimistic findings.
For the Democrats, ever since retaking both houses of Congress in November 2006, have a larger political problem. If they vote to end financial support for the war, they risk falling into the 'Vietnam Trap.' Following their cutting off of funding to South Vietnam in the 1970's, for 30 years Democrats have been viewed as weaker on national security issues than Republicans. While this might not be fair it is a political fact that the current Democratic leadership is well aware of. But if they continue to do nothing, they will be supporting the very war that they rose to power declaring they would bring to an end. This will enrage the left of the party, the very group that energized their victory in the mid-term elections of 2006.
What Will Happen
With his testimony to the House finished, General Petraeus will go before the Senate on Tuesday, stressing tactical military improvements in Anbar province and in portions of Baghdad. He will also continue to admit that, to put it mildly, there has been little to no political progress in the country, that the Iraqi leadership has not taken advantage of the breathing space the surge was designed to provide. There has been no agreement on sharing oil revenues, increasing Sunni participation in a Shia-dominated central government or in disbanding powerful militias. In terms of policy, as the German thinker Clausewitz stressed, military operations should be merely a tool to achieve political goals. By that standard the surge is undoubtedly a failure.
But that is not what this carnival is truly about. The Petraeus report should be seen almost entirely in the context of Washington politics, if what is going on is to make sense. At the end of this, the president will say he is vindicated, declaring that the surge must go on. Democrats will rightly stress the avalanche of problems in Iraq, and remain unconvinced. Wavering Republicans will continue to waver, but not enough will defect to cut the president's funding for the war.
And this tragedy will go on.
Listening to Dylan is looking like a better and better decision.
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September 12, 2007
THE WORLD FROM BERLIN
'The Stage for a Withdrawal Has Been Set'
Gen. David Petraeus and Ryan Crocker told the US Congress this week that the "surge" could come home -- but the rest of America's troops in Iraq need to stay there indefinitely. German commentators reacted coolly to the news.
AFP - US soldiers return from their combat outpost following a night patrol along the southern edge of Baghdad. Their top military commander was not able to say this week when the majority of them would be coming home.
After 17 hours of testimony over two days from the two men most capable of speaking about the situation in Iraq, the most important message was that US President George W. Bush was sticking to his plan to keep the "surge" temporary and
bring back its additional 30,000 troops by next summer (more...).
Gen. David Petraeus, commander of US forces in Iraq, and Ryan Crocker, the American ambassador to Iraq, answered questions before committees in the US House of Representatives and the Senate. The hearings were marked not only by the strong emotions stirred up by the war and the Sept. 11 anniversary, but also by the aspirations of the five presidential candidates who sat on the questioning panels.
At times the debate became very heated, and Democratic politicians did not mince their words. "This was the biggest foreign policy mistake ever," commented Senate majority leader Barbara Boxer. Sen. Hillary Clinton told Petraeus he had been made into "a spokesman" for the president, while Sen. Joseph Biden, chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said, "I don't see anything that leads to an early and honourable end of this war."
At one point, Petraeus' steel wavered slightly, when he admitted: "I'm as frustrated with the situation as anybody else." But, for the most part, the general and the diplomat kept their cool. They refused to hypothesize and stray from their message: Gains have been made; their permanence is unknowable; more time is needed.
IRAQ: STRATEGIES AND WITHDRAWAL PLANS
The Surge
In January 2007 the US government reacted to the dramatic situation in Iraq with the so-called "surge." Its purpose was to improve the security situation by means of an offensive and an increase in US soldiers. Five additional brigades (roughly 20,000 soldiers) were deployed there in order to support the 132,000 US soldiers already stationed in Iraq and the units of the Iraqi army.
The US hoped in this way to make it possible for the Iraqi government to institute political reforms and to further reconciliation between the warring ethnic and religions groups. Considerable financial support was supposed to lead to job creation and a path back to normality in Iraq.
The surge did, in fact, succeed in making advances against Sunni insurgents and radical Shiites, but the process of political reconciliation appears to have once again come to a halt.
The Bagdad Plan
In order to secure the Iraqi capital, the "Baghdad Plan" was developed in January 2007. It was meant to guarantee the cohesion of the Iraqi government and its security apparatus. Its goal was to bring Baghdad back under Iraqi control.
In addition to pursuing terrorists and extremists, regardless of their religious affiliations or places of origin, priority was given to protecting the population. By means of associated economic and reconstruction aid, it was hoped that jobs would be created and daily life in the Iraqi capital would return to normal.
However, even today, chaos still rages behind the democratic façade and the government does not control the capital.
The Baker-Hamilton Commission
The Baker-Hamilton Commission (or "Iraq Study Group") was convened in May 2006 by the US Congress in order to solicit an independent appraisal of the situation in Iraq and to provide recommendations. The commission was composed of half Democrats and half Republicans and was chaired by former Secretary of State James Baker III and the Democrat Lee H. Hamilton.
The findings were presented on December 6, 2006. The final report called for the Iraqi army and security forces to be in a position by 2008 to guarantee security in the country. Moreover, the commission recommended strengthening the number of troops over the short term and sharply reducing them in 2008. Only American staging posts and Special Forces should thereafter remain in Iraq.
Problems should be solved using diplomatic rather than military means. The group also called for the US to engage in direct talks with Iran and Syria. President Bush especially rejected this last recommendation as well as the suggestion to dramatically reduce troop strength.
The British Withdrawal
In July 2007 the new British Prime Minister Gordon Brown began to intentionally distance himself from the Iraqi policies of his predecessor Tony Blair. He started with a partial withdrawal of 1,600 soldiers.
The latest phase of the British withdrawal began on the night of Sept. 1, 2007. Approximately 550 British soldiers vacated the last base in Basra in a former palace of Saddam Hussein.
From an original total of 11,000 British soldiers who were stationed in Iraq in 2003, 5,000 are supposed to remain at the end of 2007. In October 2007, Brown is expected to announce his opinion on a plan for a possible complete withdrawal.
Petraeus recommended a gradual withdrawal of the 30,000 troops added with the surge Bush announced in January, which would begin now and end in July. As to the fate of the 130,000 soldiers who will remain in Iraq, he was not in a position to confirm any plan of action.
Democrats are using the testimony as a way to try to convince a few more Republicans to join their ranks, thereby securing the number of votes needed to cut off funding for the war and force the president to decide upon deadlines for bringing the rest of the troops home. "We're going to try with our debate next week to pick up three more Republicans," said Nevada Senator Harry Reid.
Commentators writing in the Wednesday editions of the main German-language papers were typically skeptical of US policy and the future for Iraq.
The conservative
Die Welt discusses the situation in Iraq as it relates to other western military engagements in Afghanistan, Lebanon and Kosovo. In a piece called "No Patience for Victory," it writes:
"The conclusion is a bitter one: The West is no longer in a position to wage war in an organized fashion, in other words to go into battle and bring about lasting changes in the conditions on the ground. It lacks the stamina and the desire needed to carry out pre-war plans to the end in the face of resistance. It is terrified by the evil of an asymmetrical war with large numbers of deaths on its own side."
"The opponents know about these weaknesses, and the allies do, too. While the former merrily go on with their bombing in an attempt to accelerate the withdrawal, the latter remain inconstant. Why should Iraqis or Afghanis remain reliably on the side of the American or the Europeans, when they know that they will be disappearing soon? To wage a war successfully, you don't only need fighting power and civil reconstruction. You also need patience, a virtue long gone."
The center-right
Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung writes:
"All in all, the military situation has relaxed somewhat, but the extent of violence in Iraq remains terrifying. Without a further build-up of the Iraqi army and without an agreement between the religious-political factions caught up in a civil war, nothing is going to change."
"In fact, things look even bleaker. The various 'reconciliation talks' between Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds are dominated by partisan jockeying for position and no progress has been made on the real issues. Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, who is criticized for his close ties to Tehran, has proven to be incompetent or even worse. ... In parts of the country, especially in the south, there is fighting among various Shiite factions. Millions of Iraqis have fled abroad, while hundreds of thousands are caught up in ethic and religious cleansing, driven from their hometowns or the lands Saddam Hussein settled them on and seeking refuge somewhere. The economic results, especially those from oil production, have hardly improved. Billions of dollars in contracts that the American government has pumped into the country have run into the sand or -- to be more precise -- landed in the wrong pockets."
"Whether the representatives and senators in Washington are realistically evaluating these facts at all is another question altogether. In the discussion about Iraq in Washington ... the only real question is when the withdrawal will begin and how quickly it will be carried out."
"A withdrawal, if it is not going to look like post-defeat flight, will in any case last longer than a year. At the end of the day, it's about how soon a timetable can be publicly announced or whether Washington keeps the Iraqis in the dark about that. There are arguments for and against both approaches. On this issue there are only two things which are certain: Iraq's future will not be rosy, and the standing of America as a world power is severely damaged after this deployment."
Austria's
Der Standard writes:
"One feels like one has gone back in time to before the invasion of Iraq in March 2003. After the US government's recent PR campaign, the world is once again divided into believers and disbelievers when it comes to the US's Iraq policy. But simply showing skepticism or a taste for the facts -- far less actual disbelief -- is enough to be labeled a 'defeatist,' if not worse, by the believers."
"Since Petraeus, who is indeed an impressive man, stated (that troop levels will be reduced in 2008) at the same time as asserting that US military strategy in Iraq was bearing fruit, his recommendations were regarded by some observers as reason for optimism. The real message got lost -- namely that the US forces in Iraq cannot be significantly reduced at the moment."
The Swiss daily
Neue Zürcher Zeitung writes:
"Gen. Petraeus ... gave Congress a new definition of the American mission in Iraq, one that is sober and modest: The US is not trying to determine the future shape of Iraq, he said. It is only trying to ensure that the Iraqi sects compete for power in a less violent manner."
"That is not really the description of an imperialist line of attack, or of the idealistic conviction that Iraq has to become a functioning democracy before the Americans can leave the field with honor. ... The stage for a withdrawal has been set."
"The interest groups in the Iraqi government have so far not been able to agree on the key points in policy. There is no sign of a basic political consensus. And they are not going to unite that quickly, even under the threat of an American withdrawal, if they don't agree that the preservation of Iraq as a state is the best solution. But in the end, there is the question of the alternative. Does one have to look into the abyss before compromises seem attractive?"
-- Josh Ward, 2:30 p.m. CET
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