Trollingers Mavs Preview

[sefant77]

Trollinger:

2009-10 Recap
How old is too old?

The Mavs are about to find out. All five projected starters are on the wrong side of 30, as is ace sixth man Jason Terry. It hasn't hurt them yet -- the Mavs won 55 games last season, an amazing 10th straight year with at least 50 wins -- but one has to wonder how long the Mavs can keep churning younger players into older ones before it all collapses in a heap. Last season the Mavs accelerated the "treadmill" approach, re-signing Jason Kidd, trading for Shawn Marion and then executing a midseason deal with Washington for Caron Butler and Brendan Haywood. That latter deal created some delusions of grandeur since (A) word of Butler's decline apparently had failed to reach Texas, and (B) the Mavs almost immediately ripped off a 13-game winning streak. Alas, it was a mirage; while the Mavs finished second in the Western Conference standings, they were only eighth in victory margin. For the third time in four seasons, Dallas lost in the first round of the playoffs.

Nonetheless, they'll bring back largely the same crew this season. Offensively, a couple of positives stand out. First, obviously, is the continued excellence of Dirk Nowitzki, who remains among the league's most efficient performers -- not only did he produce his usual 26.7 points per 40 minutes, but he uses remarkably few possessions to rack up his points.

Theoretically, that should have left plenty of opportunities for other players to thrive. In practice, it was incredibly disappointing that Dallas finished only 10th in offensive efficiency, and the team may need to rethink how some of the pieces fit. Two other starters (Kidd and Haywood) rarely shot the ball, while the other Mavs were mostly jump-shooters. The result was predictable: Dallas ranked just 26th in free throw attempts per field goal attempt, a major reason they failed to land higher in the offensive-efficiency tables.

Ironically, Dallas led the league in free throw percentage at 81.6 percent, an accomplishment that obviously would have been much more useful had it earned free throws in greater quantity. Not one Maverick finished in the top 15 at his position in free throw attempts per field goal attempt.

Defensively, Dallas placed 12th, with the main talent being a very low foul rate -- not surprising for such a veteran team. Dallas was fifth in opponent free throw attempts per field goal attempt, mirroring its greatest offensive weakness. Between those two items, in fact, only the Hornets' and Knicks' games featured fewer combined free throw attempts than Dallas.

Dallas' greatest skill last season wasn't offense or defense, actually -- it was pulling rabbits out of hats at the end of games. The Mavs went 18-7 in games decided by five points or less after going 18-5 in such games a year earlier; in fact, since 2004-05 the Mavs are 93-44 in these games. The outlook for Dallas this season depends in part on whether one considers that luck or skill. On one hand, 93-44 is a pretty impressive mark -- if these games were truly random, we'd expect this to happen only one time in 50,000. That makes it difficult to ascribe to random chance. However, as ESPN.com contributor Kevin Pelton has written, these aren't entirely random -- good teams will win slightly more often even in games this close. So if we use Dallas' record in non-close games in that period (.696) and modify by Pelton's formula to give them a probability of .565 in the close games, the odds of Dallas running up such an impressive record is more like 1 in 150. One in 150 still sounds ironclad -- it's statistically significant. That takes us back to the old statistician's saw that if you go looking for significance, you'll Vfind it. While the knee-jerk reaction is to attribute the Mavs' outperformance in close games to its many wily veterans, other studies have shown no correlation between age and close-game performance. Additionally, the Mavs' record in these contests dates back to a time when they weren't nearly as long in the tooth. The better question to ask is, if this is a durable skill, what other things would we expect to see? For starters, we'd expect to see more year-to-year carryover in teams' records in these games. Historically, there is absolutely no correlation between a team's close-game record one season and its record the next. Even for Dallas, there was a 9-12 season mixed in with the 18-5 and 20-4 marks. We'd also expect out-of-sample testing to show the trend holding up. But the Mavs went 8-14 in playoff games decided by five points or less in that stretch, dropping 11 of their past 12 -- including two this past spring in the first-round playoff loss to San Antonio. That explains why I didn't buy Dallas as a No. 2 seed last season, and why I suspect they'll be unlikely to stay at the 55-win level this time around. A more valid reason to believe Dallas can keep up its string of 50 wins is the one good, young player they have in the pipeline -- Rodrigue Beaubois. In fact, the Butler trade may have inadvertently thrown a wrench in the Mavs' season by preventing them from starting Beaubois. On a per-minute basis, he was the second-best Mav behind Nowitzki and led all rookies in PER -- but he rarely played. That was true even in the postseason; he played only 10 minutes in the first five games of the San Antonio series before nearly rallying the Mavs from 19 down in the concluding Game 6 … only to see the Spurs pull away while he sat the first 10 minutes of the final quarter. Pistons fans will immediately note the parallels to another rookie, Tayshaun Prince, whom Rick Carlisle had to be prodded to use more in the postseason. (Carlisle, it should be noted, squeezed about all one possibly could from this roster otherwise.) Finding a role for Beaubois will remain a challenge going forward, not least because the obvious solution -- benching Butler and cutting Jason Terry's minutes -- is going to leave some key veterans unhappy. If the Mavs are content with losing in the first round again, or perhaps the second if they get a good draw, then they can probably achieve it while leaving the 30-something quintet of veteran starters intact. They'll have a nice, safe season and no chance of winning anything important. To do anything more, however, depends on somebody like Beaubois emerging as a capable cohort to Nowitzki. Offseason Moves Dallas entered the offseason thinking it had a major card to play in the non-guaranteed contract of Erick Dampier, but it quickly became clear the team overplayed its hand. The Mavs would have been better off cashing in at the 2010 trade deadline, when they had already added Butler and Haywood but clearly needed another piece.

By the summer, so many teams had cap space and trade exceptions at least as large as Dampier's contract that the Mavs had little leverage; in fact, Utah outbid them for Al Jefferson with one of those exceptions.


Traded Matt Carroll, Eduardo Najera and Dampier to Charlotte for Tyson Chandler and Alexis Ajinca. The Mavs did the next-best thing with Dampier -- they used him to dump some unwanted salary flotsam and then gained another backup center with a huge expiring contract in Chandler, leaving open the possibility of using it in a blockbuster deal somewhere down the line. Chandler should be at least as good as Dampier; throw-in Ajinca is a failed first-rounder they'll see if they can get turned around.

Re-signed Dirk Nowitzki to a four-year, $80 million deal. Nowitzki gave the Mavs a bit of a hometown discount -- he could have signed for as much as $96 million. That should, theoretically, help the Mavs pursue other players, although Mark Cuban wasn't exactly shy about spending to upgrade the roster beforehand.

Re-signed Brendan Haywood to a six-year, $55 million deal. Dallas overpaid for Haywood, and probably knew they'd be doing this last February. The Mavs effectively purchased his Bird rights in the trade last year, with DeShawn Stevenson's burdensome contract representing the purchase price. While the last year is not guaranteed -- one of Dallas' favorite cap tricks -- the odds of Haywood being a $10 million player at age 35 are roughly on par with my chances of outrunning Usain Bolt.

Unfortunately for Dallas, the market for frontcourt talent quickly got out of hand this past summer, and they're highly unlikely to get full value from this deal. In the short term, however, they've locked up the center spot. They'll worry about the long-term later, but as long as Cuban is willing to pay luxury tax, this deal won't hurt the Mavericks.

Purchased No. 25 pick from Memphis, drafted Dominique Jones. This was less for an immediate need than a recognition that Dallas is awfully short on young talent right now. Buying a draft pick was a good way to prevent a potential crash two years down the road when the starters will go from being merely old to positively geriatric.

Signed Ian Mahinmi for one year, minimum. Mahinmi can't stay healthy, but he's been fairly productive in his limited minutes and could provide a solid fifth big man for Dallas. Also, he's 23 -- providing another inexpensive avenue to infuse the roster with some youth.

Signed Tim Thomas for one year, veteran's minimum. Thomas played reasonably well a year ago before leaving the team to tend to his sick wife, and the Mavs never adequately filled the backup power forward slot after he left. At this price he's a no-brainer.


Biggest Strength: Size
We don't think of the Mavs as bullies, but this year's team should be huge just about everywhere. It starts in the backcourt, where the 6-4 Kidd is nearly the biggest player at his position, and goes all the way to the center spot. Dallas now has two legit, productive 7-footers in Haywood and Chandler that they can rotate during games, tying down one opposing big man while the other tries to deal with the 7-foot Nowitzki on the perimeter.

Dallas's size is just as imposing on the wings. While I'm not fond of starting Butler at shooting guard, his 6-7 frame will allow him to shoot over most wings. Marion, meanwhile, has always played much taller than his own listed height of 6-7, allowing him to dominate opposing small forwards around the rim. Newcomer Jones fits this profile as well as a physical 6-5 guard.

Additionally, the Mavs have worked on adding more size on the bench with additions of players like Mahinmi and Ajinca. One other key cog, unfortunately, didn't work out when forward Tim Thomas left the team for a second straight season in order to tend to his ill wife.

There will still be times when Dallas plays small, especially in the backcourt where Kidd is likely to play a lot of mintues with either Brea, Terry or Beabouis joining him. But it appears Nowitzki wil see little or no action at center, and if so it follows that Marion's time at the four would also be limited. As a result, Dallas's frontcourt should consistently be as big or bigger than the opponents', even against the L.A.s, Portlands and Bostons off the league.

Biggest Weakness: Age
The Mavericks should be good again this year. But one must acknowledge the risk that this thing could go off the rails in a hurry. Dallas is old on paper, and it played like it too -- both the Mavs and their opponents were at or below the league average in free throws, turnovers and offensive rebounds, which are the classic signs of an older club.

Of particular concern is Dallas' age on the perimeter. While Beaubois is a glaring exception, Kidd is 37, Butler is 30 and Terry and Marion are 32. Kidd has aged extraordinarily well, but the other three all saw fairly large performance drops last season that could be the first stage of a steady decline. Kidd's numbers aren't red-flag-free either -- his rebound rate, though still impressive, has declined steadily over the past four seasons. He also could be a victim of the age around him -- while Kidd thrives in the open court, none of the other geezers will run with him.

The area of least concern is Nowitzki -- with his size and shooting ability, any age-related decline should be gradual as long as no injuries crop up. That said, if his play were to diminish, this whole house of cards would fall faster than you can say "Bennett Salvatore."



Outlook
The biggest question in projecting the Mavs is how they'll use the roster. I project each team based on the idea that they'll play their best-rated players the most (provided those players are healthy), but in Dallas' case I feel less assured than in some others. I rated them with Beaubois playing nearly 2,000 minutes after returning from injury, which would require the Mavs to use Butler exclusively as a backup small forward and to reduce Terry's minutes. I'm not sure they're ready to do this, but if Beaubois plays as well as he did a year ago, I don't think they'll have a choice.


The projection for Beaubois is perhaps too optimistic; on the other hand, Kidd's looks far too negative. On balance, it evens out. The other factor to consider is the magic beans the Mavs have been using to spirit close games into the win column in recent seasons. I remain a non-believer, but if you want to give Dallas extra credit for this you should add about three wins to the total below.

The other factor to consider is the Mavs' willingness to spend along the way. If a deal crops up, they'll make it, even if it costs them even more in luxury tax. Considering they have $27 million in expiring contracts with Butler, Chandler and Stevenson, they'll probably do something between now and the trade deadline.

At the end of it all, however, it looks like more of the same. The Mavs are probably still another year or two away from their age catching up to them. In the meantime, they'll be the same middle-of-the-pack Western Conference playoff team they've been throughout the Carlisle era.

Prediction: 48-34, 2nd in Southwest Division, 5th in Western Conference

[sefant77]

Love this part:

but one has to wonder how long the Mavs can keep churning younger players into older ones before it all collapses in a heap. Last season the Mavs accelerated the "treadmill" approach, re-signing Jason Kidd, trading for Shawn Marion and then executing a midseason deal with Washington for Caron Butler and Brendan Haywood.

Still trying desperatly to rip the Harris-Kidd trade with the age thing.

Trading 35 year old Stackhouse + trash for 31 year old Marion

Trading almost 30 year old Howard + trash for almost 30 year old Butler and 30 year old Haywood.

Trading 35 year old Damp for 28 year old Chandler

Drafting Roddy

Drafting DoJo

So where did we actually "keep churning" younger players into older ones?

By the summer, so many teams had cap space and trade exceptions at least as large as Dampier's contract that the Mavs had little leverage; in fact, Utah outbid them for Al Jefferson with one of those exceptions.

We didnt want Jefferson.

The Mavs would have been better off cashing in at the 2010 trade deadline, when they had already added Butler and Haywood but clearly needed another piece.

For who?

Re-signed Brendan Haywood to a six-year, $55 million deal. Dallas overpaid for Haywood, and probably knew they'd be doing this last February. The Mavs effectively purchased his Bird rights in the trade last year, with DeShawn Stevenson's burdensome contract representing the purchase price. While the last year is not guaranteed -- one of Dallas' favorite cap tricks -- the odds of Haywood being a $10 million player at age 35 are roughly on par with my chances of outrunning Usain Bolt.

Throwing out the last 10 million year but not writing his average rate of just (!) 8.3 after ridiculous pay days for Amir Johnson, Drew Gooden etc

[Rick41]

The Lakers starting 5 average age is 30. How old is too old again?

[SMC0007]

must spread for sefant77

[Mavericks Rockets Fan]

I'd say there is about a 1 in 150 chance that Trollinger isn't talking out of his a__...

[DevinHarriswillstart]

"the odds of Haywood being a $10 million player at age 35 are roughly on par with my chances of outrunning Usain Bolt."

Haywood is 30. ZOMG! He'll make 10 million 5 years from now!

Best play ever man....

[Male30Dan]

A lot of truth in that article whether we want to read it or not. Some really poor facts and same ol same ol from Mr. Bit, but a lot of truth all the same.

[SMC0007]

Like what do you mean?

[nowhereman]

This article is fair and accurate, although I think the wins total will be north of what he's saying.

[sefant77]

Originally Posted by nowhereman

This article is fair and accurate, although I think the wins total will be north of what he's saying.

So "fair and accurate" is to talk about multiple times trading younger for older players (?), getting "outbid" by Utah (?) and Haywood getting overpaid?

[Usually Lurkin]

Originally Posted by Male29Dan

A lot of truth in that article whether we want to read it or not. Some really poor facts and same ol same ol from Mr. Bit, but a lot of truth all the same.

yep. It's hard to bitch about Hollinger after the Mavs lived up (down) to his poor analysis last year.

[sefant77]

I still bitch about him because like always he includes bold lies and leaves out other facts that doesnt fit his "analysis".

He is a horrible "analyst" because often he not even tries to be objective.

[SMC0007]

sefant > other posts

[GermanDunk]

Originally Posted by Rick41

The Lakers starting 5 average age is 30. How old is too old again?

Wat is Lakers

[Male30Dan]

Originally Posted by SMC0007

sefant > other posts

Hahaha - dude whatever.

Basically all of the concerns he has about our age and our window can't really be argued. Unless Roddy turns out to be a beast or unless we trade for something stellar this year we are done when Dirk is done. If he gets hurt, hahaha - well, I hope we have our pick this year.

He even went into great detail on the close games piece. Normally he would just end it with IT IS LUCK AND THAT IS THAT SO ACCEPT MY FORCED OPINION but he really gave great insight as to why he feels that way and presented stats and history on past teams and past years with this team.

He did a good job with that article, plain and simple, for Hollinger. Normally his articles are 80% BS mixed with 20% facts/good points; however, in my humble opinion, this one reversed the percentages. Some people that think we are truly at the Lakers' talent level are going to take offense to him suggesting 48 wins, and that is fine. I think he is short too, but I can't honestly say he doesn't have a lot of facts in there.

Don't be a homer dude - this team as currently designed won't win shit and he knows it (as do I and many others here). When you listen to the same song 10 straight years eventually you know the words that are coming without needing to hear them. I know this song well. It has a bad ending. Maybe we are capable of making some moves to rewrite the ending, but if that doesn't happen the same shitty final verse will play again. Haven't you learned yet that if they don't change the song that final verse will suck?

[SMC0007]

Originally Posted by Male29Dan

Hahaha - dude whatever.

Basically all of the concerns he has about our age and our window can't really be argued. Unless Roddy turns out to be a beast or unless we trade for something stellar this year we are done when Dirk is done. If he gets hurt, hahaha - well, I hope we have our pick this year.

He even went into great detail on the close games piece. Normally he would just end it with IT IS LUCK AND THAT IS THAT SO ACCEPT MY FORCED OPINION but he really gave great insight as to why he feels that way and presented stats and history on past teams and past years with this team.

He did a good job with that article, plain and simple, for Hollinger. Normally his articles are 80% BS mixed with 20% facts/good points; however, in my humble opinion, this one reversed the percentages. Some people that think we are truly at the Lakers' talent level are going to take offense to him suggesting 48 wins, and that is fine. I think he is short too, but I can't honestly say he doesn't have a lot of facts in there.

Don't be a homer dude - this team as currently designed won't win shit and he knows it (as do I and many others here). When you listen to the same song 10 straight years eventually you know the words that are coming without needing to hear them. I know this song well. It has a bad ending. Maybe we are capable of making some moves to rewrite the ending, but if that doesn't happen the same shitty final verse will play again. Haven't you learned yet that if they don't change the song that final verse will suck?

Homer? You don't read much around here then. I have continually said basically the same thing about this team.

I really don't give a damn about this article but defending it by saying he did a good job, for Hollinger. Hey that midget has a huge d**k...for a midget. So is it really a huge D**k? No Biggest weakness: age? No. How about not having a solid SG??

[Male30Dan]

Originally Posted by SMC0007

Homer? You don't read much around here then. I have continually said basically the same thing about this team.

I really don't give a damn about this article but defending it by saying he did a good job, for Hollinger. Hey that midget has a huge d**k...for a midget. So is it really a huge D**k? No Biggest weakness: age? No. How about not having a solid SG??

Dude, check your ego at the door. I have been here since 2003 and lurked before then - I regularly read the board. Just saying that disagreeing with his entire article when there are a lot of facts in it shows you can't get past what he did get wrong or shows you don't agree with any of it (which yes, makes you a homer).

For the record, it is scary that you know the size of midget penises.

[SMC0007]

Originally Posted by Male29Dan

Dude, check your ego at the door. I have been here since 2003 and lurked before then - I regularly read the board. Just saying that disagreeing with his entire article when there are a lot of facts in it shows you can't get past what he did get wrong or shows you don't agree with any of it (which yes, makes you a homer).

For the record, it is scary that you know the size of midget penises.

Well no. You told me "don't be a homer dude". Which to me suggests that you haven't paid attention to what you have been lurking and reading on here, or haven't kept track of who's saying what.

Check my ego at the door? Idk what you mean. I was just agreeing with Sefants posts. Do you not think he brought some valid points? I agree with a lot of your posts too Dan but in here sefant brought it. And you will admit it or we will go no further!!

[sefant77]

Of course Hollinger has some points there (age, too many jumpshooter etc) but the same time he (again) manipulates facts so he can go along his usual Mavs bashing "getting older - trading older", "overspending" even if its not true in his "examples".

He does that all the time and thats why he is Trollinger and not Hollinger.

And the points he got there are anyway obvious: Window closing, too many jumpshooter, riding out close games in the RS but losing them in the postseason (because of too many choking jumpshooter) etc. I dont need a 50 lines analysis just so he can look "guru" like.

[Dirkadirkastan]

Hollinger finally admitted the statistical absurdity of 50-50 chances in close games last year. That is the victory here.

[LonghornDub]

I like the subtle touting of his victory-margin metric (of course) in the first paragraph and the implication that it predicted the Mavs' first-round exit.

Needless to say, he won't be mentioning victory margin when he talks of the Celtics (+3.66) beating both the Magic (+7.49) and the Cavs (+6.52)--without home court in either--or the Jazz (+5.34) getting swept by the Lakers (+4.72). And let's not forget the Spurs (+5.09) failing to even be moderately competitive with the Suns (+4.90).

[Male30Dan]

Originally Posted by SMC0007

Well no. You told me "don't be a homer dude". Which to me suggests that you haven't paid attention to what you have been lurking and reading on here, or haven't kept track of who's saying what.

Check my ego at the door? Idk what you mean. I was just agreeing with Sefants posts. Do you not think he brought some valid points? I agree with a lot of your posts too Dan but in here sefant brought it. And you will admit it or we will go no further!!

Sefant brought it? I just had visions of an old SouthPark dance off. How old are you?

Consider us going no further.

[quietsavant]

Surprise surprise hollinger puts the blazers as the 2nd team in the west.
I was actually fooling myself to take him serious for a sec there. even after reading the mavs preview.
Let's see, Pryzbilla out til december, We have an APP out for greg oden, Marcus camby is getting old(but is the only legit 5) and roy is just coming back from his rehab and this is the team that will somehow claim 2nd in the west?
As if we all don't know his favorite team in the NBA are the blazers?

[KINGBEEF]

you know what, he's getting paid to piss people off on a daily basis... but you know what they say facts and statistics go to the same party but they may leave with someone else...

[SMC0007]

Originally Posted by quietsavant

Surprise surprise hollinger puts the blazers as the 2nd team in the west.
I was actually fooling myself to take him serious for a sec there. even after reading the mavs preview.
Let's see, Pryzbilla out til december, We have an APP out for greg oden, Marcus camby is getting old(but is the only legit 5) and roy is just coming back from his rehab and this is the team that will somehow claim 2nd in the west?
As if we all don't know his favorite team in the NBA are the blazers?

APP? for the iPhone?

[Thespiralgoeson]

I'm too lazy to read the whole article, but just by skimming through this thread I can say that I take no issue with anything he brought up. The Mavs have been a second-tier team in a very muddled Western Conference for a few years now and nothing has changed; except they're a year older.

[92bDad]

Don't care for his stuff...but perhaps that is because he only points out the reality that we try to deny with the idea of holding out for hope that this Mavs team can do the improbable.

This year, I expect nothing...I'll enjoy the games and take head this type of analysis...

after all, the team is older and they have yet to add or find that player that takes them to another level.

10 years, 50+ wins...-0- Championships. Frustrating to be an MFFL...call me when they get a title, then perhaps they can be called Great...until then, they are no better than the Karl Malone/John Stockton Utah Jazz.

[SMC0007]

perhaps not too tho.

[LonghornDub]

Whether or not Hollinger is right about the Mavs, he's wrong all the time. But he's so smug about his system, he'll always skirt around those instances.

[BGMaverick9]

I really don't know how I forgot to mention this in my article on MMB but Carlisle did say he wants to really improve their point differential from last year. He acknowledged it wasn't great in regards to the rest of the West.

Carlisle on point differential, "that's an indicator of the overall strength of your game."

[mavs777]

Dallas' greatest skill last season wasn't offense or defense, actually -- it was pulling rabbits out of hats at the end of games

yawn

[sefant77]

Our greatest skill was to fall 10-20 points behind lottery teams so we can beat them with a miracle run...

Not that we were supposed to have them allready beat after 3 quarters like other contender...

[SMC0007]

Originally Posted by BGMaverick9

I really don't know how I forgot to mention this in my article on MMB but Carlisle did say he wants to really improve their point differential from last year. He acknowledged it wasn't great in regards to the rest of the West.

Carlisle on point differential, "that's an indicator of the overall strength of your game."

To me it's mental, at least in the cases where we're ahead by a large margin and they make a near comeback, or when we play lesser teams we are supposed to beat. You have to put the pedal to the metal and when the backups come in with a lead they need to keep it and play as if it were a new game. This team imo has huge mental hurdles, stemming from back in the Miami series. They have ability and a decent roster with plenty of talent, but they have to be stronger mentally.

[quietsavant]

Originally Posted by SMC0007

APP? for the iPhone?

LOL, haha funny one. Meant APB. Cop term for info of suspects. which u probably already know.

[LonghornDub]

Here's the thing about point differential:

It's a good indicator of teams' relative strength.

Except when it's not.

[SMC0007]

all incompassingly

[mcsluggo]

Originally Posted by Rick41

The Lakers starting 5 average age is 30. How old is too old again?

the difference is that the Lakers (and the cetics) tossed all of their eggs into a win-now basket... and won. ALL of the Mavs eggs have been in a win-now basket for last several years witout them winning in the off-season.

THe question isn't really "how old is too old" to win right now... the question is whether the current old mix is the RIGHT mix to win now, because the future HAS to be now. SOme season soon, either this one, or one of the next two... suddenly Dirk will no longer be on the top of his curve, and that slide is going to hurt. if the mavs haven't won before that time, then the next shot is going to be... when?