What needs to happen to ensure we make it to the second round?

[fluid.forty.one]

Things obviously look dreary right now. It seems like there is no way the Mavs can beat a first round opponent, let alone the Lakers, if they keep playing the way they are playing. But I, as well as many others, feel like momentum is one of the most important aspects of a basketball series / entire playoff run. If you played these playoffs 4 months ago things look much different (and not *only* because of Caron). We picked a bad time to lose momentum and allow doubt to creep in.

Ever since the Finals run the mavs momentum has been the opposite of what we want.. Our momentum smells like blood smells to sharks. Teams want to (and believe they can) beat our ass.

I can see it, you can see it, other teams can see it and the Mavs can see it. You can see it in their eyes... the whole, "here we go again *left hand jersey pull*.

So what's the solution?

The Blazers are exactly the demons that this team needs to slay to get over past shit. This is why (well, partially) I want them in the first round. When we beat the Spurs I don't think anyone thought "whew.. finally got over the hump. We fixed it!".... But these Blazers are young. Their crowd is INSANE. They are athletic. They are hungry. In my opinion, slaying the Blazers would be equivalent of slaying the ghost of Golden State. And it's a ghost that needs to be slain if we ever want to go anywhere.

And not only will a win against the Blazers revitalize the Mavs with confidence they've been lacking for 4-5 years, it will give Caron Butler time to hopefully return to the team.

But we aren't getting the Blazers for sure, so the real question is.... what needs to happen for the Mavs to beat their in the first round opponent and finally get some positive vibes back? Not match up issues, but MAVERICKS issues? In my opinion, the Mavs will beat themselves more often than their opponent will beat them.

Here's what I think all need to happen for 4 games for us to beat the Blazers and for us to get our swaaag back: (edited from good input)

1. Dirk needs to play above his average. (UD/Ldub add: Needs way more shot attempts) I'm thinking efficient 30/10 games.
I'm the least worried about this one.

2. Jason Terry HAS to shoot 46%+ and cannot have many 2-10ish games.
Well, at least we all know LDub has faith in this one For this one to happen, I think Terry has to pick it up over these last 5 games and roll into the playoffs with some sort of groove. If he plays poorly in these next 5 games, I feel he will continue to play poorly in the playoffs and we'll be out in the first round.

3. Kidd has to find the fountain of youth.
I'm really happy to see that Kidd will be resting at least 2 out of the next 5 games. I wish it were more. As bad as Kidd has been lately, he has been waaay worse if you take the last "6 games in 10 days" sample. Hopefully taking those types of conditions away and giving him some rest will fix some issues. Lets hope he uses his time by shooting 5 million 3s.

4. TC needs to be the guy we think he is. (UL input: some 20/20 games from center tandem)
If and Rick can get this defense all on the same page and communicating, that's huge. I feel like at at least one point in the series it is crucial that a. We all start to collectively feel another "here we go again" moment and b. for TC to make some HUGE momentum changing "tough" play that tells us all "Nope. Not happening this time". TC can be that guy.

5. Stevenson has to find his 3 point shot OR Roddy has to average 14+ ppg on effecient shooting.


IMO, if those things happen, we can finally beat the ghost that has been sucking the life out of this ball club around and bring some swag that might be able to upset the obviously more talented Lakers. Never underestimate momentum and Dirk being a badass.

(also, if we see less than 2 left hand jersey tugs per game, that's a good sign as well)

What do YOU guys think needs to happen to help the Mavs get their groove back and win this thing?

[nowhereman]

Co-sign. All of the above. But also, collectively, we need to play focused. Every play matters. No more sloppy first quarters. No more mental lapses with big leads. And no more lazy rotations or lack of hustle.

Wish we could have slain the ghost of Golden State about 3 years ago tho.

[LonghornDub]

Good list, but even with my blind optimism I don't think there's any way Terry doesn't have a 2-10 game or two. He just needs to be a net positive.

[Dirkadirkastan]

We need ALL six of those? Seems like a long shot.

[fluid.forty.one]

5 and 6 aren't as important as the rest of them.. but I'm not sure that the first 4 are enough.

What do you think needs to happen?

[fluid.forty.one]

Originally Posted by LonghornDub

Good list, but even with my blind optimism I don't think there's any way Terry doesn't have a 2-10 game or two. He just needs to be a net positive.

The list was what needs to happen in the 4 wins we need. I don't think we win if he goes 2-10, so he needs to not do that for 4 games (and the whole 2-10 thing was an afterthought. Shooting for 45-46% is really important if we want to win 4.

[mavs777]

Some other things

We need to outshoot our oppenent from 3 (not neccessarily make more but shoot a better percentage)
We need to get defensive boards at a very high rate, even if we are not getting many offensive rebounds it is important we don't allow offensive boards to Portland/NO
TC has to stay out of foul trouble
We have to have 1 game where someone other than Dirk takes over offensivly and that is why we win (could very well be Marion)

I don't think all of these things have to happen but most do, I think rebounding and TC staying out of foul trouble are the most important

[LonghornDub]

Originally Posted by fluid.forty.one

The list was what needs to happen in the 4 wins we need. I don't think we win if he goes 2-10, so he needs to not do that for 4 games (and the whole 2-10 thing was an afterthought. Shooting for 45-46% is really important if we want to win 4.

I'd like to think we could win at least one with him having a bad game. Maybe not, though.

At this point I pretty much think Dirk needs to score like 35 a game until Caron gets back (if at all).

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by LonghornDub

I'd like to think we could win at least one with him having a bad game. Maybe not, though.

At this point I pretty much think Dirk needs to score like 35 a game until Caron gets back (if at all).

He probably has to attempt 25+ shots per game to average that... Does he even get 25+ touches in a game these days?

[Spurred1]

The first round opposing team has to get so intoxicated the night before each game that they actually forget to show up and the whole series is forfeited as a result, and the Mavs move on.
I do agree with your list...but I really don't think most of those goals/objectives are going to be met.

[Usually Lurkin]

More than great defense from Chandler - we need our center tandem to be beasting. We might need a couple 20/20 games from that position.

Rather than the Terry/Stevenson bullets, I think we're good with 1 of Roddy/Terry/Chandler/Stojakavic shooting freakishly well every game.

We need whoever is playing backup pg to look like a legit starter for stretches.

We need Matrix or Stevenson to be shutting someone down.

[LonghornDub]

Originally Posted by Underdog

He probably has to attempt 25+ shots per game to average that... Does he even get 25+ touches in a game these days?

Nope, but that better change. It's our only hope methinks.

But hey, maybe the Mavs have something up their sleeves. It wouldn't be the first time sports have surprised someone.

[fluid.forty.one]

I definitely agree with some of the stuff you guys are saying.. I edited part of the list.

I don't think the list (or victory) is unachievable. And I still think beating the Blazers (aka ghost of Golden State past) could do amazing things for the mindset of this team.

[LonghornDub]

I didn't say so before, but I absolutely agree it would do wonders for their confidence to beat a spry team like Portland, especially if they can do so semi-convincingly (i.e., less than 7 games).

[Spurred1]

Originally Posted by fluid.forty.one

I definitely agree with some of the stuff you guys are saying.. I edited part of the list.

I don't think the list (or victory) is unachievable. And I still think beating the Blazers (aka ghost of Golden State past) could do amazing things for the mindset of this team.

I'm sure it would. But they need to work their asses off for it. Hope RC has his own version of the list and is hammering it into their thick skulls.

[rabbitproof]

Good list but given that these are mostly "just play better" items, I'm not the most optimistic.

Every team is hoping/expecting their teams and specific players to "just play better" in the playoffs. So while "playing better" may not be a zero-sum game, I don't know if the net effect is a positive for the Mavs.

It would be better if there were more tactical (start using screens to give Peja open looks or getting Dirk a touch every possession) or strategic (playing Roddy minutes > JET minutes or starting JET) changes.

[JeffViggiano]

the saint spirit owned RC.

[xrobx]

well one thing that would help would be that somehow the hornets (44-33) pass up the blazers (45-33) in the standings.

in fact, i just noticed we play NO in the last game of the season. if it comes down to it, we should just bench all the starters and tank the game

[Thespiralgoeson]

What needs to happen is for Cuban and Donnie to get off their asses and actually go after a versatile wingman that above all can get to the rim. We've needed such a player for about six years now and the fact that we've never even come close to getting one tells me that it's just not a priority to the people running the organization. Season after season passes and nothing changes. And it's not going to change this year either. We're probably just going to re-sign Butler and roll out our same squad of 30+ year-old jumpshooters, win fifty-something games and lose in the first round every year until Dirk finally retires.

[dalmations202]

What needs to happen to ensure we make it to the second round?

Win

[JayR]

we need carlisle to step up and start coaching like a real head coach

[Thomas86]

Originally Posted by xrobx

well one thing that would help would be that somehow the hornets (44-33) pass up the blazers (45-33) in the standings.

in fact, i just noticed we play NO in the last game of the season. if it comes down to it, we should just bench all the starters and tank the game

So you wonna play the Hornets in round one?...the Mavs almost never win in New Orleans and all the Hornets have to do is steal one game in Dallas and that puts tons of pressure on the Mavs.

[jthig32]

Originally Posted by Thespiralgoeson

What needs to happen is for Cuban and Donnie to get off their asses and actually go after a versatile wingman that above all can get to the rim. We've needed such a player for about six years now and the fact that we've never even come close to getting one tells me that it's just not a priority to the people running the organization. Season after season passes and nothing changes. And it's not going to change this year either. We're probably just going to re-sign Butler and roll out our same squad of 30+ year-old jumpshooters, win fifty-something games and lose in the first round every year until Dirk finally retires.

How do you know we've never been close to getting one?

[Fragism]

Originally Posted by Thomas86

So you wonna play the Hornets in round one?...the Mavs almost never win in New Orleans and all the Hornets have to do is steal one game in Dallas and that puts tons of pressure on the Mavs.

I would happily play the Hornets without West over the Blazers

[Jerry Stackhouse]

What needs to happen...

1. To ensure we make it to the second round? Better players.

2. To give us a fighting chance to make it to the second round? Keep plugging away.

3. To give us a fighting chance to win a title? See answer #1.

[SMC0007]

Originally Posted by Thomas86

So you wonna play the Hornets in round one?...the Mavs almost never win in New Orleans and all the Hornets have to do is steal one game in Dallas and that puts tons of pressure on the Mavs.

The Hornets are a different team now, plus we need revenge with or without D.West. We have such small odds of beating Portland. Besides, there's already a ton of pressure on Dallas anyway regardless who we face or how many wins they get, this entire season has been all or nothing. Without Caron we definitely can't get it done but of the two teams I'd love to have N.O.

[41mvp]

We need miracle!!!

[CanadianMavsFan]

I truly think this team will stomp Portland if they play in the first round, despite their recent struggles. I'm very disappointed that we will in turn be stomped in the 2nd round by the Lakers barring a huge injury though. I really think people are worrying too much about Portland, and I think Dallas will surprise us by coming out and beating them in 5 or 6.

[randomman]

Originally Posted by CanadianMavsFan

I truly think this team will stomp Portland if they play in the first round, despite their recent struggles. I'm very disappointed that we will in turn be stomped in the 2nd round by the Lakers barring a huge injury though. I really think people are worrying too much about Portland, and I think Dallas will surprise us by coming out and beating them in 5 or 6.

Isn't that what we believed about Golden State? I hope to face the Hornets instead.

[Axilla]

establish defensive presence early
focus on rebounds
attack the rim
win the FT battle
do not resort to shooting jumpers in the 4th

individually, there are obviously varying standards of performance that need to be met..but most of it depends on match-ups and simply executing

[markus1234]

1.Rest the starters in the next 4 games.
2.Play big lineups.
3.Feed Dirk.

[Funkman]

Markus, nice to see you posting somewhere besides ring's loony bin. Hopefully none of his crazy rubbed off on you.

[purplefrog]

1. The first time an opposing player goes to the basket someone has to take his head off without drawing a flagrant foul. The team will need to practice this art and the best way is to have Carlisle and the coaching staff take the ball to the basket and serve as guinea pigs while the players pound them into the court floor. The catharsis might prove to be just what the players need to start afresh.

2. Play a very physical first quarter of game 1 and send the message this is not the same old Mavs team.

3. Focus, focus, focus. Reduce turnovers to 10 or fewer per game.

3. I believe you have to go with Stevenson as the starting SG. The perimeter defense needs to be spectacular and Roddy is just not there yet defensively.

4. Haywood needs to get 5 or 6 fouls every game. Alternatively, he at least needs to look somewhat interested in playing defense and rebounding. Personally, I like him fouling out every game with at least half his fouls knocking someone to the ground.

5. In short, one way to get this team back on track is to convince themselves they can play the physical games necessary for playoff wins and also convince their opponent that they have not prepared for the series adequately.

6. If none of the above is possible or likely then play long stretches with Roddy, Peja, Dirk, and JET on the court at the same time in an attempt to outscore their opponent with 3-pt bombs. Yes, things are getting desperate. Status quo is not going to work in my opinion, so RC will have to be bold and try something that the opponent is not preparing for.

[CanadianMavsFan]

Originally Posted by randomman

Isn't that what we believed about Golden State? I hope to face the Hornets instead.

The Warriors absolutely owned the Mavericks in 2007, we had every right to worry. Plus they were hot as hell.

Mavericks have split the series with Portland and played them tough when they have lost (ignoring the most recent game). This team isn't in a fight for the 2nd seed like last year either, it looks like the 3 seed is pretty much done and for us.

Last year I was worried, and against Golden State I was legitimately worried, but this year I don't see it. This team isn't a championship level team by any means, but I still think their depth and size will win them a 1st round series.

[SMC0007]

I would like to see a little more of Tyson coming off the screen for the elbow jumper and getting touches on the block in an Iso occasionally. I know he isn't a killer scorer but there are intangibles that get the team going. When he is lively and active on BOTH ends, it seems infectious on the rest of the team. We are something like 10-2 when he scores 15 or more.

The team has to get more from Jason Kidd too, and while I don't think he is capable of it, he needs to get out of some bad habits for us to be effective. Immediately passing around the horn isn't gonna cut it. We can't afford for him to play hot-potato with the ball. It bothers me when he passes up shots or opportunities to drive and either get fouled or put up a shot and instead flips it over to a guys who isn't really open or in position to do anything with it.

Jet seems to be rounding (down) into playoff form a little early this year. I won't be expecting anything new from him..it's like lacing up the cleats when Marcie is teeing up the football for you. How can you fall for it again..

Dirk just needs to be Dirk but with a little extra focus on defense this year.

[sylvestian]

Wow purplefrog... you´re going nuts on point... send this to RC personally... he needs to get and know this..

[mavsfan1000]

Rest Kidd and Dirk a lot these last 5 games.

[j0Shi]

Some thoughts:

You are basically right that noone fears to play the Mavs in the first round. We right now have the identity of a team that cannot come out of the first round and is soft. They have 'earned' that in recent years and it will stick until proven otherwise. So my biggest concern is that even if we win everybody will talk about the Blazers, their great future and that they lost despite putting up a big fight. We somehow have to be able to outperform them in a way that everybody will talk about our fight to put the playoff demons of recent years behind us. Don't wanna hear anything about 'experience' that gave us the edge. I think for an extended playoff run it is not so important to come out of the first round (and yes, I am pretty confident of that to happen) but how.

Purplefrog is dead on with his points. Right now nobody expects the Mavs to come out aggressive night in and night out. If they will, the opponent could be caught by surprise.

Another key for me for the last 5 games is how Barea and Roddy will handle extended minutes at the point with Kidd being rested. I think solid 15-20 minutes from Roddy in the playoffs will be vital for the team. That doesn't necessarily mean he has to score a lot but create off the dribble. Same goes for Barea.

[LonghornDub]

Originally Posted by purplefrog

2. Play a very physical first quarter of game 1 and send the message this is not the same old Mavs team.

Could not agree more. Setting a tone in the first quarter is huge. People always talk about the fourth quarters, and they're certainly important, but the tone you set early can very often dictate the rest of the game.

On Sunday in Portland, the Mavs looked like they had no interest whatsoever in getting physical. That can't happen.

[JeffViggiano]

Originally Posted by purplefrog

1. The first time an opposing player goes to the basket someone has to take his head off without drawing a flagrant foul. The team will need to practice this art and the best way is to have Carlisle and the coaching staff take the ball to the basket and serve as guinea pigs while the players pound them into the court floor. The catharsis might prove to be just what the players need to start afresh.

2. Play a very physical first quarter of game 1 and send the message this is not the same old Mavs team.

3. Focus, focus, focus. Reduce turnovers to 10 or fewer per game.

3. I believe you have to go with Stevenson as the starting SG. The perimeter defense needs to be spectacular and Roddy is just not there yet defensively.

4. Haywood needs to get 5 or 6 fouls every game. Alternatively, he at least needs to look somewhat interested in playing defense and rebounding. Personally, I like him fouling out every game with at least half his fouls knocking someone to the ground.

5. In short, one way to get this team back on track is to convince themselves they can play the physical games necessary for playoff wins and also convince their opponent that they have not prepared for the series adequately.

6. If none of the above is possible or likely then play long stretches with Roddy, Peja, Dirk, and JET on the court at the same time in an attempt to outscore their opponent with 3-pt bombs. Yes, things are getting desperate. Status quo is not going to work in my opinion, so RC will have to be bold and try something that the opponent is not preparing for.

game,set & match