Official playoffs 2021 - round 1 - Mavs and Clippers

[EricaLubarsky]

General discussion thread for the series

Schedule
Game 1 - Sat May 22nd - 3:30 CST - WIN
Game 2 - Tue May 25th - 9:30 CST
Game 3 - Fri May 28th - 8:30 CST
Game 4 - Sun May 30th - 8:30 CST
---------------------
Game 5 - ??? - If Necessary
Game 6 - ??? - If Necessary
Game 7 - ??? - If Necessary

[NeedlesKane]

After the Mavericks win this series... will we still want Kawhi Leonard?

[Dallas41]

Surprising #'s by DFS when he defended Leonard in last year's series (primary defender on him last year was Maxi)

Kawhi Leonard torched the Mavs in the playoffs last year. He had 29 points or more in all six games. The Klaw produced 32.8 points, 10.2 rebounds, 5.2 assists, and 2.3 steals in 39.1 minutes per game. He shot 53.8 percent from the field and 85.5 percent on his free throws. The Mavericks had no answer to slow him down.

Coach Rick Carlisle will likely use Dorian Finney-Smith on Kawhi and Tim Hardaway Jr. on Paul George in the series. Leonard was nine of 23 from the field with Doe-Doe matched up against him during their 2020 playoff series, according to NBA Stats. That is by far the best mark of any Maverick.

[NeedlesKane]

@Dallas41 I actually want to see J-Rich defend him as much as possible.

[Dallas41]

I expect the Mavs to start the series with this lineup that RC was tinkering with prior to KP coming back

Luka
Richardson
THJ
DFS
KP

That lineup was being used with WCS prior to going with KP/Powell

I don't think the Mavs want THJ on George so it wouldn't surprise me if they go back to J.Rich in the starting lineup and match him up with George.

[Dallas41]

Originally Posted by NeedlesKane

@Dallas41 I actually want to see J-Rich defend him as much as possible.

I think I do recall Richardson defending Leonard in the regular season

I have all 3 games saved on DVR I plan on watching them again for sure

[tap2390]

My heart says Mavs in 6, my brain says Clippers in 6.

Clippers are the best shooting team in the league and have Paul George, Marcus Morris, Kawhi Leonard, Reggie Jackson, Nic Batum, Patrick Beverly, and Luke Kennard all taking and making threes at an extremely high clip (all are very close to 40% or above). We also rely heavily on Maxi vs. the Clippers for his switch ability and closing out skills. If he's hurt we're going to be one defender short playing such a loaded team. Double teaming Kawhi and PG might work for a game or two, but unless we're fast defensively and close out the role players will beat us from outside.

[NeedlesKane]

Predictions:

Hornets beat Pacers. Celtics beat Wizards. Hornets beat Wizards.
Grizzlies beat Spurs. Lakers beat Warriors. Warriors beat Grizzlies.
Knicks beat Hawks. Bucks beat Heat. Nets beat Celtics. 76ers beat Hornets.
Warriors beat Jazz. Suns beat Lakers. Nuggets beat Blazers. Mavericks beat Clippers.
76ers beat Knicks. Nets beat Bucks.
Mavericks beat Warriors. Nuggets beat Suns.
Nets beat 76ers.
Mavericks beat Nuggets.
Mavericks beat Nets. NBA Champs!
Totally not biased.

[SMC0007]

EL and I have this prediction nailed tbh.

[day1]

I voted Mavs in 3. That gives us more time to rest. Also, it proves the league is willing to bend over backwards so we can win!

[washedklean77]

unfortunately, I chose the Clips in 6. There's just not enough consistency and hustle in this Mavs team to take a series - regardless of the opponent. I hope that this playoff season teaches this young team that no matter how good they think they are, they still have to be disciplined in all areas to succeed.

[BPo001]

I voted Clips in 5. I think they are a better team than last year, and Dallas has been too inconsistent. If the 3 ball isn’t falling they don’t stand a chance. Luka will get his, but if the supporting cast lays an egg we don’t stand a chance. LAC have a lot of long defenders to throw at Luka too. I see a lot of hatred in my future.

[purplefrog]

Originally Posted by Dallas41

I expect the Mavs to start the series with this lineup that RC was tinkering with prior to KP coming back

Luka
Richardson
THJ
DFS
KP

That lineup was being used with WCS prior to going with KP/Powell

I don't think the Mavs want THJ on George so it wouldn't surprise me if they go back to J.Rich in the starting lineup and match him up with George.

I agree with this starting lineup. The goal of the JRich trade was to be more competitive in the playoffs against teams with multiple perimeter threats. Not many teams have the personnel to match up against Leonard and George. The Mavs, at least on paper, should be able to slow them down with DFS and JRich. If JRich ends up being an epic fail in this type of playoff situation, then the Mavs know the answer to whether they accomplished their 2020 offseason goal. In this case, you look to trade him in the offseason (assuming he opts in) and in my opinion that would be a top priority. Its put up or shut up for JRich. I see this as a critical series that should determine his future with the Mavs.

[SMC0007]

I would NOT start JRich and TJH together. That leaves DFS guarding their 3rd option (Morris).

Rick is going to have his hands full keeping Zubac out of the paint and off the glass. Zubac is the guy who can throw a wrench in the gears for us. He cleans up the trash and takes advantage of our bigs lack of fundamentals. We simply cannot afford for random guys having career nights or doing damage. If it's PG or Kawhi, then so be it.

[EricaLubarsky]

[washedklean77]

Thanks for sharing, EricaLubarsky. I hope that Carlisle posts that image up in the locker room to help motivate this team.

[purplefrog]

Originally Posted by SMC0007

I would NOT start JRich and TJH together. That leaves DFS guarding their 3rd option (Morris).

Rick is going to have his hands full keeping Zubac out of the paint and off the glass. Zubac is the guy who can throw a wrench in the gears for us. He cleans up the trash and takes advantage of our bigs lack of fundamentals. We simply cannot afford for random guys having career nights or doing damage. If it's PG or Kawhi, then so be it.

I was thinking you try DFS on Leonard, JRich on George, and THJ on Morris. If Morris decides to take THJ inside, then great as his 3 point shooting this year has been outstanding. Keeping Zubac and Cousins off the glass is going to be a nightmare and may well be the deciding factor in the series. If Maxi is limited (as I suspect he will be), then you almost have to go small. I guess you can try playing KP and WCS/Powell together but that will lead to a 3 point barrage from the Clippers. Maybe a zone?

[Unicorn]

If we win the first game, we win the series

[Unicorn]

https://youtu.be/aIf66_uakqM

[Dallas41]

Originally Posted by SMC0007

I would NOT start JRich and TJH together. That leaves DFS guarding their 3rd option (Morris).

Rick is going to have his hands full keeping Zubac out of the paint and off the glass. Zubac is the guy who can throw a wrench in the gears for us. He cleans up the trash and takes advantage of our bigs lack of fundamentals. We simply cannot afford for random guys having career nights or doing damage. If it's PG or Kawhi, then so be it.

I know we shouldn't judge or put to much stock into regular season matchups because the playoffs are different.

But that game in late March the Mavs were missing DFS and they did start THJ and J.Rich together with Luka, KP and Kleber.

J.Rich was assigned mostly to George and THJ was stuck on Morris a lot.

Leonard actually got taken out of that game early do to foul trouble....

What surprised me the most when I went to watch that game yesterday was KP and WCS actually shared the floor together in the 2nd QTR and the Mavs defense was vastly improved. They did a lot of contesting and altering shots at the rim but that tandem only saw like 6-8 minutes together for the game.

That was by far J.Rich best defensive game of the year IMO he was active although George made shots nothing came easy for him.

Zubac was effective early in that game on the glass but as the game moved forward I thought the Mavs did a better job on him by the 4th QTR especially WCS.

Now obviously the Clippers didn't have Ibaka or Cousins that game so that might change everything up front.

Luka was unstoppable I think he scored 42 points despite the Clippers throwing multiple defenders at him. KP was active and he actually did pretty good that game with Leonard defending him often. KP used his height advantage over Leonard. But again I suspect Ibaka will be defending him in the playoffs as opposed to Leonard again....

I think DFS will get the assignment on Leonard if Kleber can't go at 100% and I expect Richardson based on what he did that last Clippers game to find himself back in the starting lineup or increased minutes off the bench to defend George again.

Also the Mavs can hide Luka or THJ on the likes of Morris, Batum or Kennard all stationery shooters. They just have to stay home and close out....

Overall that might have been one the Mavs better defensive games all year especially in the 2nd half.

[SMC0007]

If I'm the Clips, I put Kawhi on Luka and Bev on THJ. Even if that means starting Jackson on JRich if he actually starts.

Morris might defend KP because Kawhi and Morris both can switch to Luka when we PnR with Kp and Luka and we will probably see lots of it.

If I'm Rick, I would highly consider seeing how successful THJ is in the SLU because if he's hot it's a game changer.

[Skywalker]

Optimistically clippers in 5. Wouldnt be surprised to see a sweep tbh

[EricaLubarsky]

Originally Posted by SMC0007

If I'm the Clips, I put Kawhi on Luka and Bev on THJ. Even if that means starting Jackson on JRich if he actually starts.

Morris might defend KP because Kawhi and Morris both can switch to Luka when we PnR with Kp and Luka and we will probably see lots of it.

If I'm Rick, I would highly consider seeing how successful THJ is in the SLU because if he's hot it's a game changer.

THJ is a game changer either way.

It's just not necessarily the way you want the game changed if he's not hitting shots.

[EricaLubarsky]

Anyway, don't know why everyone thinks the Clippers are the better team.

Mavs had a 2-1 record against the Clippers in the regular season
Mavs had a better record against teams over .500 in the regular season than the Clippers
Mavs only won five fewer games over the whole 72 game season
Mavs had half their starters out for 10 games of the 72 game season

I mean the only thing that matters are the next 4-7 games, but still. Mavs are HIGHLY underestimated and disrespected by the NBA media.

[SMC0007]

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

Anyway, don't know why everyone thinks the Clippers are the better team.

Mavs had a 2-1 record against the Clippers in the regular season
Mavs had a better record against teams over .500 in the regular season than the Clippers
Mavs only won five fewer games over the whole 72 game season
Mavs had half their starters out for 10 games of the 72 game season

I mean the only thing that matters are the next 4-7 games, but still. Mavs are HIGHLY underestimated and disrespected by the NBA media.

Solid points. Without getting too technical, my guess is:

Our fans: Because we see the Mavs every other day and we are much closer to the inconsistencies. They beat us last year.

Everyone else: They have Kawhi who has championships and plays at a high level on both sides of the floor. We don't play defense well. They beat us Las year.

[EricaLubarsky]

Schedule
Game 1 - Sat May 22nd - game three of the day (no confirmed time yet)

[Simon2]

Some of the questions I have:

1. Will Paul George disappear again? I hope so
2. Much of the Mavs success will depend on THJ and his shooting. I hope he light them up.
3. I wonder if Green will get some playing time. Really need his energy

Mavs in 6

[mac222b]

I picked Clippers in 6. Good wing defenders, depth and shooters. A lot will depend on the health of Maxi and obviously KP and Luka’s health too for us to have a chance.

[SMC0007]

I picked Mavs in 3 because who the F could possibly know what this team is going to roll out from one game to the next. We have won games we might shouldn't have and have been blown away in games we shouldn't have. I'm not sure there is an educated guess I could firmly stand behind.

[Melonhead]

Much of the outcome will come down to how well the defense plays for the Mavs.

Clippers have the best 3 point shooting in the league. If the Mavs think theyre going to run and gun 3s with the clippers, itll be a quick series.

[turin]

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

Anyway, don't know why everyone thinks the Clippers are the better team.

Mavs had a 2-1 record against the Clippers in the regular season
Mavs had a better record against teams over .500 in the regular season than the Clippers
Mavs only won five fewer games over the whole 72 game season
Mavs had half their starters out for 10 games of the 72 game season

I mean the only thing that matters are the next 4-7 games, but still. Mavs are HIGHLY underestimated and disrespected by the NBA media.

The main reason is because playoff basketball is a completely different animal than the regular season, and teams have to win series.

[EricaLubarsky]

Originally Posted by turin

The main reason is because playoff basketball is a completely different animal than the regular season, and teams have to win series.

But they barely beat us and were embarrassed by the Nuggets. It's not like they have a track record of that much more success.

[NeedlesKane]

Pacers are spoiling my predictions. lmao

[dirt_dobber]

Nic Batum on the Mavs:
"They beat us by 50 (actually 51) and by 17, so they've had success against us."

[dirt_dobber]

LAC coach Ty Lue on Tim Hardaway Jr.: "I think he's an X-factor." Said Hardaway has been terrific since getting to Dallas and credited Rick Carlisle for helping make that happen.

[BPo001]

Maybe we get a different Richardson knowing he is a FA and a good showing in the playoffs can make him a lot richer this offseason.

[Dallas41]

I finally got done watching all the playoff games from last years bubble matchup and the 3 games from this regular season.

My bold Prediction is the Mavs win this series in 6 games

That's right I think the Mavs steal a game in LA and the Clippers never recover

I think K.Leonard finally comes down to earth vs Dallas and they hold him to a respectable 25 PPG this post season.

My surprise 1st round hero is DFS who I predict will avg around 12-14 PPG on 40% 3-PT shooting and close out the Clippers with a few late game daggers

[Unicorn]

Originally Posted by mac222b

I picked Clippers in 6. Good wing defenders, depth and shooters. A lot will depend on the health of Maxi and obviously KP and Luka’s health too for us to have a chance.

It's not like Paul and Kawhi is a super healthy dudes

[D_D_D]

Our game is this Saturday at 3:30pm CST.

[D_D_D]

Originally Posted by BPo001

I voted Clips in 5. I think they are a better team than last year, and Dallas has been too inconsistent. If the 3 ball isn’t falling they don’t stand a chance. Luka will get his, but if the supporting cast lays an egg we don’t stand a chance. LAC have a lot of long defenders to throw at Luka too. I see a lot of hatred in my future.

This is basically what I was thinking as well.

My heart of course says Mavs in 6 or 7, but realistically and objectively I think clips in 5. In my opinion they are a better team than they were last year and honestly just a better, more talented team than us. For us to stand a chance, we gotta be hitting on all cylinders, locked in from start to finish, and have everyone healthy.

Get ready for a bunch of technical fouls, probly a couple flagrants, and some dirty plays from that piece of shit Marcus Morris (ooo I fuckin hate him the most)

O/U for Luka tech's in series - 2.5
I'll sayyyy over (3)

Anyways just a couple more days and the moment we've all been waiting for is here!!! C'mon Mavs take game 1!

Let's. Go. Mavs!!