6/9 ESPN Insider - players on the 1st Rd. Bubble

[OutletPass]

Cook, Austin most intriguing bubble boys
By Chad Ford
NBA Insider
Send an Email to Chad Ford Monday, June 9
Updated: June 9
10:26 AM ET


There will be 29 first-round picks in the NBA Draft. Not 50. Not 44. Not even 30.


According to ESPN.com's latest mock draft, 12 of them will be international players. Two more will be high school stars. The other 15 will come from the college ranks.


BYU's Travis Hansen was the only sure first-rounder at the Chicago camp.
The world as we know it is about to change. So when some random GM makes an off-hand comment about a prospect being a lock for the first round, step back a minute and do the math.

There were not five first-rounders at the Chicago pre-draft camp last week. As of now, our projections say there was only one -- BYU's Travis Hansen.

Josh Howard, the ACC Player of the Year and a first team All-American, will get into the first round by the skin of his teeth. Brian Cook, the Big Ten Player of the Year, isn't in the first round yet. Neither is Troy Bell, the Big East Player of the Year, nor Ron Slay, the SEC Player of the Year.

Xavier's David West, the top vote-getter in the Associated Press All-American balloting, is fighting for his first-round life as well. Four out of five second-team All-Americans -- Hollis Price, Kyle Korver, Jason Gardner and Bell -- are on the outside looking in.

And it's not just college seniors taking a beating. According to our latest mock draft, top-ranked underclassmen like Mario Austin, Rick Rickert, Maurice Williams, Chris Thomas, Marcus Moore and Jameer Nelson are feeling the pain.

McDonald's All-Americans are finding it rough this year this year, too. LeBron James and Ndubi Ebi are in. But right now Outlaw, Kendrick Perkins, Charlie Villanueva and James Lang are all looking at the second round.

Even a few top international prospects like Zarko Cabarkapa, Zoran Planinic, Kristaps Valters, Alexsander Vujacic, and 7-foot-7 center Slavko Vranes are finding it hard to get any love. When you're 7-foot-7 and you can't sneak into the first round, things are getting too crowded.

Of course, over the next two weeks, the field will thin a bit.

Nelson, Moore and Williams all indicated they're leaning toward dropping out of the draft and returning to school next season. Ebi, Villanueva and Outlaw also are mulling going to college. And internationally, the talk is that Brazilian big man Anderson Varejao will pull out of the draft. Several others also are expected to pull their names out if they aren't promised a particular draft position. Maciej Lampe will return to Spain if he doesn't get a lottery-pick guarantee. Sofaklis Schortsanitis and Zaur Pachulia likely will bolt if they're not in the top 20. And Malick Badiane, Carlos Delfino, Planinic, Vujacic, Vranes and Szymon Szewczyk also are mulling pulling their names out if they don't believe they'll be taken in the first round.

Others have no choice but to stay in. Obviously seniors are stuck, but other underclassmen like Austin, Rickert and Lang already have hired agents. Their college eligibility is done.

Best case scenario for the 15 or so bubble boys is that six first round spots (Lampe, Ebi, Schortsanitis, Pachulia, Delfino and Badiane) open up because those players pull out of the draft. But right now it look like Lampe, Delfino, Badiane and probably Ebi are likely to stay. That makes only two more openings for a big group of unhappy players.

Here's a look at what each bubble guy has to do to earn that coveted first round spot.


Cook
1. Brian Cook, PF, Illinois: Cook has lottery type talent. He's 6-foot-10, has a polished inside-outside game and dominated the Big Ten last season. What's the issue? Attitude and toughness. Many scouts feel he didn't get serious about his career until last season. A few more feel he isn't tough enough to play in the post in the NBA. It's really difficult to get a read. Phoenix worked Cook out privately in Chicago and came away impressed. Another rumor making the rounds has the Sonics interested, at 14, if they aren't able to land Mike Sweetney. Portland, Los Angeles, Minnesota, San Antonio and Dallas are other plausible first-round destinations if Cook impresses. In other words, don't be shocked if Cook pulls a Fred Jones next year and goes a lot higher than the current projections. In the end, talent always seems to trump everything else in the draft.


Austin
2. Mario Austin, PF, Mississippi State: Is Austin an undersized power forward? According to one team that worked out Austin before the camp, he measured 6-9¼ with shoes. He also had trimmed his body fat to 8 percent and looked to be in the best shape of his career. So what gives? Teams still are worried about his athleticism, his face-the-basket game and his effort. At times during his career, he wouldn't even cross half court on the offensive end. He probably should be ranked higher. Could Austin be this year's Carlos Boozer?

3. Travis Outlaw, SF/PF, Starkville High: Outlaw is one of the best athletes in the draft, but his fragile frame, lack of a perimeter game, and questionable court IQ have scouts scratching their heads. He needs three to four years of development before he'll be ready to dominate at the power forward position in the pros. Is anyone willing to wait that long? Doesn't have the upside of a Jonathan Bender (who at least could shoot the ball) or an Ndudi Ebi (who plays aggressive defense). Someone could take him on as a project, but his stock will be much higher if he goes to school for a few years.

4. Zarko Cabarkapa, SF/PF, Yugoslavia: Cabarkapa is an experienced power forward with solid fundamentals and killer jumper. He's got a great feel for the game, is one of the more mature Euros in the draft. At 6-11, he's a match-up nightmare at small forward. But Cabarkapa's lack of a post game, lateral quickness and defensive intensity worry teams. He also doesn't put the ball on the floor enough. Who does he guard? He's not strong enough to hang with fours, nor is he athletic enough to play with the NBA threes. With that said, he had excellent workouts for both the Suns and the Lakers. Both teams claim he's in the mix for their selections. If several of the Euros pull out, he'll quickly move up and replace them.

5. Zoran Planinic, PG, Croatia: Last fall, Planinic was considered a potential lottery pick by several NBA clubs. But an automobile accident set him back a few months, and he struggled all season. Recently, he's really turned his game around. Now that he's in the U.S. for workouts, his stock could be on the rise. At 6-foot-6, teams will take a closer look. One team to watch on Planinic is the Nets. They've been high on him all year and could use a back-up for Jason Kidd. If Planinic doesn't get a first round promise, he'll likely return to Europe.


Thomas
6. Chris Thomas, PG, Notre Dame: He's a true point guard, but his size and lack of strength are scaring teams away. The word in Chicago was Thomas would stay in the draft no matter what. Early predictions by some that he was a mid first-rounder appear to be way off. Someone like New Jersey or Minnesota could gamble on him in the first round. More likely, he'll be an early second-round pick.

7. Jameer Nelson, PG, St. Joseph's: Nelson helped himself in the camp, but did he help himself enough to make it into the first round. He's already got an NBA body, can take his guy off the dribble at will and is an excellent rebounder for someone his size. But he's still just 5-foot-11 without shoes. He'd be much better off returning to school and coming out next season when things aren't quite so crowded.

8. Rick Rickert, PF, Minnesota: His workouts haven't been going well. Teams are dubbing him a "tweener." Rickert has the size and fundamentals teams like in a player. But his lack of athleticism and strength are hurting him. Like Cabarkapa, he doesn't have the bulk to guard big men in the post, and he lacks the quickness to guard guys on the perimeter. He'll need a couple of years in the weight room before he's ready to produce.


Bell
9. Troy Bell, PG, Boston College: No one helped his stock more in Chicago than Bell. He shot the ball well, proved he was capable of running the point and excelled at most of the physical tests teams ran him through. Right now he's projecting as a Bobby Jackson type instant scorer off the bench. Will that be enough to get him into the first round? Bell caught the Lakers' eye at No. 24, and Minnesota will take a long look at No. 26, but most likely, he's now an early second-rounder.

10. Dahntay Jones, SG, Duke: Jones would be a lottery pick if he had a consistent jump shot. Still, with that athleticism, teams were buzzing about him. A 17-point performance on the last day of camp certainly helped his stock. It's not inconceivable that a team like the T-Wolves, Grizzlies or Spurs could take him at the end of Round 1. He'll go quickly in Round 2 if he's still on the board.

11. Szymon Szewczyk, SF/PF, Poland: Szewczyk is moving up the board pretty fast. Teams only recently have begun scouting him, and they like what they see. He's athletic, has a sweet shooting touch, and he's an above-average shooter. He's a real sleeper. If his agent, Marc Fleisher, keeps his name in the draft, it means he probably has a first-round promise. Both Memphis and San Antonio have shown interest.

12. Alexsander Vujacic, PG/SG, Slovenia: Vujacic was one of only two international players to play at the pre-draft camp. He showed great passing ability for someone his size and proved to most he was a real point guard. At just 19 years old, he has to get stronger and improve his jumper, but a few teams, including the Lakers, wanted a closer look after the camp was over.

13. James Lang, PF/C, Central Park Christian High: Lang helped himself in Chicago. He played well with his back to the basket, rebounded and proved that he belonged. His measurement's (6-9½) will hurt him, as will his weight (316 pounds). Will he be Oliver Miller all over again? It's doubtful anyone will take the risk.

14. Kendrick Perkins, PF/C, Ozen High School: His big chance to improve his stock will be at a workout in Houston later this week. If he plays well, teams will have to take a second look. At 6-10, 270, he's got decent size, lots of strength, and he's comfortable with his back to the basket. Those close to Perkins claim he's in the draft, no matter what. That's a big mistake. After fellow high school star Lang played great in Chicago, Perkins has slipped further down the board.

15. Slavko Vranes, C, Montenegro: Vranes measured 7-foot-7 with shoes at a workout for the Celtics. He also impressed several teams with his shooting touch and ability to run the floor. There's no question he's a project, but if you're Memphis or San Antonio, and you're sitting on a pick late in the first round, do you take a chance? Next year, he's a lock for the first round.