06-08-2011, 05:51 PM
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#361
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Moderator
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Austin, TX
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fluid.forty.one
Honestly.... 40-45.
I guess I should have said I'm not "confident" rather than "extremely confident", although both are tue.
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If the Mavs won Game 5, would you jump up to an 80+? Or is the big concern having to close it out in Miami?
I'm actually pretty damn confident they win Game 5, but I think taking another in Miami will be tough.
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"Your'e a low-mentality drama gay queen!!" -- She_Growls
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06-08-2011, 05:52 PM
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#362
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Moderator
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 19,413
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LonghornDub
If the Mavs won Game 5, would you jump up to an 80+? Or is the big concern having to close it out in Miami?
I'm actually pretty damn confident they win Game 5, but I think taking another in Miami will be tough.
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Yes.
For me, the concern is tomorrow. I think they can win 1 of 2 in Miami if both were cracks at win #4. Dirk has never won 3 and not gotten to 4.
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06-08-2011, 05:54 PM
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#363
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Golden Member
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Mesquite, Texas
Posts: 1,403
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I hope RC sticks to the same starting line up in game 5. Stevenson off the bench was pure magic.
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06-08-2011, 05:55 PM
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#364
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Moderator
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Austin, TX
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fluid.forty.one
Yes.
For me, the concern is tomorrow. I think they can win 1 of 2 in Miami if both were cracks at win #4. Dirk has never won 3 and not gotten to 4.
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Whoops, I didn't read your previous post closely enough, cause that's clearly what you said initially.
I'm the opposite. I think they got it in the bag tomorrow. I don't see these guys losing 2/3 home games total with so much on the line. Especially not after they somehow managed to win this last one despite pretty much every single thing going wrong.
__________________
John Madden on Former NFL Running Back Leroy Hoard: "You want one yard, he'll get you three. You want five yards, he'll get you three."
"Your'e a low-mentality drama gay queen!!" -- She_Growls
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06-08-2011, 05:59 PM
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#365
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Golden Member
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Mesquite, Texas
Posts: 1,403
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I thought enough went right last night. We played the best defense we've played all series despite the score being so close.
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06-08-2011, 05:59 PM
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#366
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Diamond Member
Join Date: Jul 2001
Posts: 8,668
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LonghornDub
If the Mavs won Game 5, would you jump up to an 80+? Or is the big concern having to close it out in Miami?
I'm actually pretty damn confident they win Game 5, but I think taking another in Miami will be tough.
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Really? I'm of the opposite opinion. I can't see the winner of Game 5 losing this series. Even if Dallas has to close out in Miami, I still think two shots will be plenty for this Mavs squad. Plus, this Miami team isn't built for adversity. If you can get them on the ropes, I'm pretty confident they'll be finished.
Game 5 is going to be the one for all the marbles. I think Miami knows this too, and it's going to make for an all-out war on Thursday night.
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"Ok, Go Mavericks!"
-Avery Johnson
Last edited by FINtastic; 06-08-2011 at 06:00 PM.
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06-08-2011, 06:02 PM
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#367
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Moderator
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Austin, TX
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FINtastic
Really? I'm of the opposite opinion. I can't see the winner of Game 5 losing this series. Even if Dallas has to close out in Miami, I still think two shots will be plenty for this Mavs squad. Plus, this Miami team isn't built for adversity. If you can get them on the ropes, I'm pretty confident they'll be finished.
Game 5 is going to be the one for all the marbles. I think Miami knows this too, and it's going to make for an all-out war on Thursday night.
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Yeah, maybe I'm being downright ridiculous, but I think the Mavs win a "comfortable" one tomorrow.
("Comfortable" in this series is winning by like 7 points instead of 2.)
__________________
John Madden on Former NFL Running Back Leroy Hoard: "You want one yard, he'll get you three. You want five yards, he'll get you three."
"Your'e a low-mentality drama gay queen!!" -- She_Growls
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06-08-2011, 06:03 PM
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#368
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Moderator
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: 41.21.1
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FINtastic
Really? I'm of the opposite opinion. I can't see the winner of Game 5 losing this series. Even if Dallas has to close out in Miami, I still think two shots will be plenty for this Mavs squad. Plus, this Miami team isn't built for adversity. If you can get them on the ropes, I'm pretty confident they'll be finished.
Game 5 is going to the one for all the marbles. I think Miami knows this too, and it's going to make for an all-out war on Thursday night.
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I agree with this - winner of Game 5 takes all.
The Mavs have already split once in Miami, I have no doubt they can do it again... Miami doesn't exactly have much of a HCA.
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These days being a fan is a competition to see who can be the most upset when
your team loses. That proves you love winning more. That's how it works.
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06-08-2011, 06:06 PM
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#369
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Golden Member
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 1,445
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Yup, Im with fluid and Fin. Thursdays game is huge, and I really want to have the opportunity to see what Dirk does in a Finals close out game.
If you give this hungry bunch TWO chances to win it all, I don't see them giving it up. Game 5 is for it all imho.
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BEAT LA
Last edited by badfish22; 06-08-2011 at 06:08 PM.
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06-08-2011, 06:09 PM
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#370
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Diamond Member
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: North Laredo
Posts: 7,995
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LonghornDub
Yeah, maybe I'm being downright ridiculous, but I think the Mavs win a "comfortable" one tomorrow.
("Comfortable" in this series is winning by like 7 points instead of 2.)
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God could I use one of those tomorrow.
My anxiety and emotional distress is at an all time high.
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"Dirk Nowitzki is now a household name in every locker room in this world.
You say it in Brazil, you say Dirk, they know Nowitzki. You say it in China,
they know Nowitzki. Kobe, Michael, DIRK." - Jeff Van Gundy
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06-08-2011, 06:10 PM
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#371
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Golden Member
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Mesquite, Texas
Posts: 1,403
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If Tyson comes alive again on the boards like game 4 and we cut back on the TO's we should win game 5.
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06-08-2011, 06:51 PM
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#373
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Diamond Member
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 4,113
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right now i'd say i'm about 25 percent confident on our chances of winning the series, if we win tomorrow it shoots up to a 50 percent, basically a coin toss. if we lose tomorrow it'll dip to about 1 percent.
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06-08-2011, 06:56 PM
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#374
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Golden Member
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: norcal
Posts: 1,490
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xrobx
right now i'd say i'm about 25 percent confident on our chances of winning the series, if we win tomorrow it shoots up to a 50 percent, basically a coin toss. if we lose tomorrow it'll dip to about 1 percent.
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Basically what you're saying is that you're more confident in the ability of the Heat to overcome a 2-3 series deficit than you are in the Mavs' ability. Not sure I agree with that, based on recent history.
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Help me, Roddy-wan Beaunobi, you're my only hoop.
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06-08-2011, 07:00 PM
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#375
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Guru
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: uranus
Posts: 13,573
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iella
Basically what you're saying is that you're more confident in the ability of the Heat to overcome a 2-3 series deficit than you are in the Mavs' ability. Not sure I agree with that, based on recent history.
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Or he's saying that if we can't win two in a row now... why should it be different with even more pressure to stay alive AT MIAMI.
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you just proofed how stupid you are - CRAZYBOY
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06-08-2011, 07:03 PM
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#376
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Guru
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Denton, TX
Posts: 10,453
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xrobx
right now i'd say i'm about 25 percent confident on our chances of winning the series, if we win tomorrow it shoots up to a 50 percent, basically a coin toss. if we lose tomorrow it'll dip to about 1 percent.
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If we win game 5, I'd say the Mavs' odds of winning the series are considerably better than 50%. More like 75%.
Last edited by Thespiralgoeson; 06-08-2011 at 07:05 PM.
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06-08-2011, 07:07 PM
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#377
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Banned
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 202
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Whenever we take out Barea we make a run in the fourth quarter.
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06-08-2011, 07:12 PM
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#378
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Member
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 855
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Wow. This team depends on Kidd on the floor so much.
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06-08-2011, 07:22 PM
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#379
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Moderator
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Austin, TX
Posts: 17,873
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xrobx
right now i'd say i'm about 25 percent confident on our chances of winning the series, if we win tomorrow it shoots up to a 50 percent, basically a coin toss. if we lose tomorrow it'll dip to about 1 percent.
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This is not a very objective assessment.
__________________
John Madden on Former NFL Running Back Leroy Hoard: "You want one yard, he'll get you three. You want five yards, he'll get you three."
"Your'e a low-mentality drama gay queen!!" -- She_Growls
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06-08-2011, 07:24 PM
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#380
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Diamond Member
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 9,215
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I'd say our odds are about 45% right now, but would jump up to 64% if we win Game 5. If we lose, I'd put us around 16%.
This is how I figure.
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06-08-2011, 07:31 PM
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#381
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Member
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 486
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fluid.forty.one
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Well he talked ish about him before the last game and LeBron still wussed out, so why stop now?
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06-08-2011, 07:34 PM
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#382
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Platinum Member
Join Date: May 2011
Location: New York City
Posts: 2,348
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Honestly, in the Mav's I trust. We will win game 5. Either we dominate or come from behind, either way we WILL win game 5. I have a feeling we are going to see the true Maverick form that we have witness throughout these playoffs thus far. It's going to be fucking electric. I can't wait because the Mav's are more hungry then ever and they ARE battle tested, ready and willing to strike at the enemys juggular.
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06-08-2011, 07:44 PM
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#383
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Moderator
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: 41.21.1
Posts: 36,143
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Screw odds, it's binary - win or lose.
Mavs win.
__________________
These days being a fan is a competition to see who can be the most upset when
your team loses. That proves you love winning more. That's how it works.
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06-08-2011, 07:49 PM
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#384
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Golden Member
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 1,349
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Speaking Xs & Os.
The reason these guys can't run away on us even with all of that talent is because of 2 things.
Dallas' defense is bad-ass. When we have Tyson/Dirk/Stevenson or Matrix/Dirk & Jet on the floor and play a trap man, Stevenson has the speed to get back in to position after doubling, the swing men leak out, then Tyson drops back to defend the basket.
Very few teams can deal with this situation.
And secondly, LeBron is not posting up.
If LeBron were to post up the whole game, with Wade top side in 3 point land slashing every time Lebron gets the ball, then keeping Bosh on the back side for a short jumper in case, it would be tough for us to stop.
But Lebron prefers to hang out at 3 point land and make his move from there. Having Tyson Chandler is God's gift to the maverics. He scares the crap out of most defenders, especially when Dirk drops back as well, you have a 7 footer and a 7'1 guy waiting for you, not to mention a scrappy Stevenson and Kidd waiting to swat your ball from behind.
The heat are in trouble if the Mavs stop missing easy shots.
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06-08-2011, 07:50 PM
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#385
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Member
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 855
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Do you think Dirk sneezed during any of his shots?
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06-08-2011, 07:53 PM
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#386
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Moderator
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Austin, TX
Posts: 17,873
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Underdog
Screw odds, it's binary - win or lose.
Mavs win.
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I don't agree at all with your first sentence, but I very much agree with the second one. Very, very much.
__________________
John Madden on Former NFL Running Back Leroy Hoard: "You want one yard, he'll get you three. You want five yards, he'll get you three."
"Your'e a low-mentality drama gay queen!!" -- She_Growls
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06-08-2011, 08:01 PM
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#387
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Diamond Member
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Deutschland
Posts: 7,885
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iella
Basically what you're saying is that you're more confident in the ability of the Heat to overcome a 2-3 series deficit than you are in the Mavs' ability. Not sure I agree with that, based on recent history.
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True, but history says that the Heat often had an answer while we had to fight back. + it´s mostly Dirk who brings us back. Yesterday in the final minutes we clanked several in a row and turnovers an incapability under the boards kept us company all series long. So, i agree more with X.
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06-08-2011, 08:02 PM
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#388
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Moderator
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 19,413
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dirkadirkastan
I'd say our odds are about 45% right now, but would jump up to 64% if we win Game 5. If we lose, I'd put us around 16%.
This is how I figure.
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Is that our odds of winning the game tomorrow or the series?
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06-08-2011, 08:02 PM
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#389
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Moderator
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: 41.21.1
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LonghornDub
I don't agree at all with your first sentence, but I very much agree with the second one. Very, very much.
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If it makes you sleep any better, the Mavs odds of winning the series are 100%.
This is according to the Chuck Norris scale, so it's scientifically proven...
__________________
These days being a fan is a competition to see who can be the most upset when
your team loses. That proves you love winning more. That's how it works.
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06-08-2011, 08:04 PM
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#390
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Moderator
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Austin, TX
Posts: 17,873
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Underdog
If it makes you sleep any better, the Mavs odds of winning the series are 100%.
This is according to the Chuck Norris scale, so it's scientifically proven...
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More than good enough for me.
Mavs 2011 NBA Champions. Bet the farm, folks. Bet the farm.
__________________
John Madden on Former NFL Running Back Leroy Hoard: "You want one yard, he'll get you three. You want five yards, he'll get you three."
"Your'e a low-mentality drama gay queen!!" -- She_Growls
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06-08-2011, 08:19 PM
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#391
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Member
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 855
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Having way too much fun today.
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06-08-2011, 08:25 PM
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#392
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Platinum Member
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: state of eternal optimism
Posts: 2,844
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Y'all just relax. Mavs win the next two. Series over. Heat locker room cries a river.
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"Truth is incontrovertible. Panic may resent it. Ignorance may deride it. Malice may distort it. But there it is." - Winston Churchill
Last edited by purplefrog; 06-08-2011 at 08:26 PM.
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06-08-2011, 08:26 PM
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#393
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Diamond Member
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 7,002
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fluid.forty.one
Is that our odds of winning the game tomorrow or the series?
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series
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06-08-2011, 08:28 PM
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#394
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Moderator
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Austin, TX
Posts: 17,873
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Quote:
Originally Posted by purplefrog
Y'all just relax. Mavs win the next two. Series over. Heat locker room cries a river.
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http://www.bobanddan.com/contact/mar31/norm-mmhmm.mp3
__________________
John Madden on Former NFL Running Back Leroy Hoard: "You want one yard, he'll get you three. You want five yards, he'll get you three."
"Your'e a low-mentality drama gay queen!!" -- She_Growls
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06-08-2011, 08:30 PM
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#395
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Diamond Member
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 9,215
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fluid.forty.one
Is that our odds of winning the game tomorrow or the series?
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The series.
It's a simple calculation that assumes a 60% probability of victory for the home team in any game. The purpose is to quantify a team's relative advantage in a series, given the status of the series and the location of the remaining games.
Of course, you can invent your own similar metric with different percentages.
Last edited by Dirkadirkastan; 06-08-2011 at 08:31 PM.
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06-08-2011, 08:36 PM
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#396
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Diamond Member
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 4,113
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iella
Basically what you're saying is that you're more confident in the ability of the Heat to overcome a 2-3 series deficit than you are in the Mavs' ability. Not sure I agree with that, based on recent history.
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a 2-3 series deficit is a lot easier to overcome when both games are at home. (see last year's nba finals) especially considering they've only lost one home game in the entire playoffs and are still yet to lose back to back games in the playoffs.. the heat are an extremely good home team. i won't even be comfortable up 3-2. they can easily win 2 at home. tomorrow is a must win, for sure. i wouldn't count us completely out, how can anyone after everything this team has done, but it would definitely take the mother of all miracles to get 6 and 7 on the road.
Last edited by xrobx; 06-08-2011 at 08:36 PM.
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06-08-2011, 08:39 PM
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#397
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Moderator
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Austin, TX
Posts: 17,873
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Wade and James had a "late-night strategy session" at the hotel last night. Sounds pretty....you know, that word Grant Hill told us not to say.
http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news;_yl...nbafinals-heat
__________________
John Madden on Former NFL Running Back Leroy Hoard: "You want one yard, he'll get you three. You want five yards, he'll get you three."
"Your'e a low-mentality drama gay queen!!" -- She_Growls
Last edited by LonghornDub; 06-08-2011 at 08:40 PM.
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06-08-2011, 08:39 PM
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#398
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Platinum Member
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: state of eternal optimism
Posts: 2,844
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Get a chuckle out of this one. Joe Cocker sings to the Heat locker room after game 6.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SMwXPueu-RM
I realize there is a lot of heavy lifting to do.... I just think this Mavs team has the persistence and internal fortitude to get it done. I don't think the same of the Heat.
__________________
"Truth is incontrovertible. Panic may resent it. Ignorance may deride it. Malice may distort it. But there it is." - Winston Churchill
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06-08-2011, 08:53 PM
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#399
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Golden Member
Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 1,209
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I really hope everybody on the Mavs take this next game as if it's a Game 7 because it's that big.
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06-08-2011, 08:55 PM
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#400
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Member
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 855
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Lebron has decided IT'S TIME! LOOK OUT BITCHES!
NOW YOU WILL ALL PAY
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