GDT game 74 - Mavs (31-42) at Pelicans (31-43) 7:00 FSSW

[Bryan_Wilson]

The most we can save if we disregard the roster hold as somethign that's ineveitable no matter the scenario is still only 3m. 4.4m-1.3m partial guarantee is 3m. And UD's 2.1m is correct when you take into account the roster hold.

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by sefant77

Well, Teague/Hill/Holiday (aka 2nd tier FA) are going to get max.

Yep, which is why I have zero interest in them if we're chasing PGs in the draft.

But even if we dont want them (for this numbers) this 4.4m could be the difference to get two solid guys in the 10m area.

Your numbers are lacking context -- have you looked at the list of FAs this summer? Who are you getting for $10m? That kind of money buys you guys like Austin Rivers, Matthew Dellavedova, Jared Dudley, Omer Asik, Iman Shumpert, Mirza Teletovic, or Dwight Powell... So you're looking at players like Shaun Livingston, Tiago Splitter, and P.J Tucker... Basically Devin Harris-type guys.

[sefant77]

Originally Posted by Bryan_Wilson

Devin has a partial guarantee of $1,339,662 next year.

Ok, forgot to check this possibility

If we cut Devin's 4.4m contract on the books it will be
-1.3m dead money from partial guarantee
-815k rookie scale empty roster spot cap hold(if necessary)

The empty roster spot cap hold we have to pay anyway (up until 12 players under contract/spots is reached)

If Devin were to be resigned to a 2.3m salary we still pay him 1.3m from his partial guarantee on top of it. Making his cap hit 3.6m. I'm bad at math but I don't see how cutting him saves us 4.4m under any scenario that isn't a trade with no money coming back.

I dont know if i remember it wrong or the CBA changed, but we can keep his cap hold spot for ~800k free, blow our entire cap and then go over the cap to give him his minimum deal (because its just a minimum deal). So re-signing Devin is the last step in the FA and if that is correct even with the 1.3m dead money from his partial guarantee the difference in cap space will be 3.1m. An with his partial guarantee it makes even more sense, since Devin would lose even less (1.3m+2.3m vet min vs. 4.4m)

And UD's 2.1m is correct when you take into account the roster hold.

But its irrelevant in the maths because we need to pay for this roster hold anyway.

Your numbers are lacking context -- have you looked at the list of FAs this summer? Who are you getting for $10m? That kind of money buys you guys like Austin Rivers, Matthew Dellavedova, Jared Dudley, Omer Asik, Iman Shumpert, Mirza Teletovic, or Dwight Powell...

Or the next Seth Curry for 4m...or Mirotic the way he is balling since weeks

or nothing, sure. I just dont want to give up THE OPTION just to please Devin finance wise.

[Underdog]

Originally Posted by sefant77

Or the next Seth Curry for 4m...or Mirotic the way he is balling since weeks

or nothing, sure. I just dont want to give up THE OPTION just to please Devin finance wise.

Well I'm sure if the Mavs think they can get a guy like that, then they'll let Devin walk... But in that case, opening up a roster spot FAR outweighs the dollar amount that Devin is owed. His salary isn't keeping us from doing anything worthwhile this summer... If you're looking to free up cap space, trade Wes or Powell.

[DevinHarriswillstart]

I know this isn't what people want to think about, but the reality is that Mavs are likely going to be as bad if not worse next season. That's the price of rebuilding and developing talent.

Worrying about where Devin's salary is going to fit is really not going to be an issue this offseason.

[SMC0007]

Originally Posted by DevinHarriswillstart

I know this isn't what people want to think about, but the reality is that Mavs are likely going to be as bad if not worse next season. That's the price of rebuilding and developing talent.

Worrying about where Devin's salary is going to fit is really not going to be an issue this offseason.

I am forced to disagree a bit. We had some injuries early on and have picked it up since all-star break, and things have been better since losing Deron and Bogus and getting Noel. Wipe away the terrible start to the season and we are in the playoffs..granted no shot at competing for a title, nor will be likely be next year, but I can't see how we are as bad or worse next season.

[DevinHarriswillstart]

Originally Posted by SMC0007

I am forced to disagree a bit. We had some injuries early on and have picked it up since all-star break, and things have been better since losing Deron and Bogus and getting Noel. Wipe away the terrible start to the season and we are in the playoffs..granted no shot at competing for a title, nor will be likely be next year, but I can't see how we are as bad or worse next season.

I suppose, but I think some people still have that "chase the big fish" mindset not understanding that things have changed.

[EricaLubarsky]

Originally Posted by DevinHarriswillstart

I suppose, but I think some people still have that "chase the big fish" mindset not understanding that things have changed.

I think you're both right. On one hand, we were a pretty decent team. Maybe one dynamic guard and backup center from making the playoffs (heck, we might have limped into the playoffs had we been healthy).

On the other hand, we're probably not even angling to pick up a Blake Griffin, Serge Ibaka, Steph, or any other 29+ year old vet for this team. If we improve, it's going to be through our lottery pick, some undrafted kids, and internal development of guys already on the roster. Those guys may actually make us worse-- at least for the first 1/2 or 2/3 of the season. If we improve, it may look like one step back for most of next season before taking two steps forward late in the season or perhaps even early in the 2018-2019 season. Because of that, I'd put our chances of even making the playoffs at about 45% for next year.

Yeah, we were close this year. Yeah, I think it's very likely we'll come back next year with more talent. I just think we'll need time to gel and acclimate while other teams are getting better.

Teams who may fall out of the playoffs
Clippers - they've flamed out. They capped out and this season showed that their chemistry is awful. Griffin will go to the Thunder or Lakers and the rest of the team will be an 8th seed at best.

Teams who will improve and take a shot at the playoffs
Portland - with a training camp with Nurkic, they may push as high as 4th
Denver - their young core will finally gel
New Orleans - they will either gel and address their guard positions or they'll implode completely. I'd put the odds at 40% that they make the jump to the playoffs

[SMC0007]

Originally Posted by EricaLubarsky

I think you're both right. On one hand, we were a pretty decent team. Maybe one dynamic guard and backup center from making the playoffs (heck, we might have limped into the playoffs had we been healthy).

On the other hand, we're probably not even angling to pick up a Blake Griffin, Serge Ibaka, Steph, or any other 29+ year old vet for this team. If we improve, it's going to be through our lottery pick, some undrafted kids, and internal development of guys already on the roster. Those guys may actually make us worse-- at least for the first 1/2 or 2/3 of the season. If we improve, it may look like one step back for most of next season before taking two steps forward late in the season or perhaps even early in the 2018-2019 season. Because of that, I'd put our chances of even making the playoffs at about 45% for next year.

Yeah, we were close this year. Yeah, I think it's very likely we'll come back next year with more talent. I just think we'll need time to gel and acclimate while other teams are getting better.

Teams who may fall out of the playoffs
Clippers - they've flamed out. They capped out and this season showed that their chemistry is awful. Griffin will go to the Thunder or Lakers and the rest of the team will be an 8th seed at best.

Teams who will improve and take a shot at the playoffs
Portland - with a training camp with Nurkic, they may push as high as 4th
Denver - their young core will finally gel
New Orleans - they will either gel and address their guard positions or they'll implode completely. I'd put the odds at 40% that they make the jump to the playoffs

Still very on the fence about the Pelequins. Boogie has a major attitude problem and I don't see team success with his mental approach towards refs and calls, and how the world is out to get him etc. The brow is a badass but if you are around that type of negativity it can take a large toll.

[sefant77]

Originally Posted by DevinHarriswillstart

I suppose, but I think some people still have that "chase the big fish" mindset not understanding that things have changed.

Its not about chasing the big fish. Its about flexibility in the FA. 3m more cap means more flexibility for several scenarios. And like i said i dont want to give this up just so Harris earns 800k more (4.4 vs 2.3+1.3).

[Underdog]

What an odd hill to die on.