The Season in the Balance...Cowboys/Panthers - Page 2 - Dallas-Mavs.com Forums

alby · 12-25-2005, 12:14 AM

if the skins lose and we win, we are in
or if the panthers lose and we win, because we have the tiebreaker vs them

these are the only two possibilities of us getting in right?

dirno2000 · 12-25-2005, 12:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alby

if the skins lose and we win, we are in
or if the panthers lose and we win, because we have the tiebreaker vs them

these are the only two possibilities of us getting in right?

Tampa is a possibility but the tie-breaker is so close that it won't be decided until after next weekend. Of course Tampa's playing the Saints at home so it's probably not even worth worrying about.

alby · 12-25-2005, 12:26 AM

i see the eagles losing on purpose just to F the cowboys over...

how serious is brunell's injury

chumdawg · 12-25-2005, 02:58 AM

I want to figure the probability of the Cowboys making the playoffs. To do so, I need to estimate the probability of the individual teams winning their games next week. Without giving it too terribly much thought, here's what I come up with:

Dallas - 90% (assuming they need the win)
Carolina - 60%
Washington - 67%
Tampa Bay - 80%

And on top of that, I'll put the odds of Minnesota winning the division (which puts us out of the playoffs) at 8%, which I think is slightly generous.

Whaddaya think? How far off are my estimates?

Just glancing at it, I put the Cowboys' odds to make the playoffs at around 40%. I may be missing on the high side, though. But I'd be shocked if the odds were below 25%.

#1MavsFan · 12-25-2005, 03:23 AM

Thats seems pretty reasonable to me, good job

. Vick controls our destiny, hopefully he decides to end his season with a bang!

dirno2000 · 12-25-2005, 03:28 AM

I'd agree with those numbers although Tampa is probably just as likely to beat N.O. as we are to beat the Rams...both of those teams have mailed it in.

I can't believe that we're staring 10-6 in the face and yet the odds are that we won't even make the playoffs.

Even if we don't make it I like the way we're finishing. Hopefully this will persuade Bill to come back if he is indeed wavering.

chumdawg · 12-25-2005, 03:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dirno2000

I'd agree with those numbers although Tampa is probably just as likely to beat N.O. as we are to beat the Rams...both of those teams have mailed it in.

I can't believe that we're staring 10-6 in the face and yet the odds are that we won't even make the playoffs.

Even if we don't make it I like the way we're finishing. Hopefully this will persuade Bill to come back if he is indeed wavering.

You know, you're probably right. Plus, Tampa Bay is playing to win the division, and with the possibility of missing the playoffs to boot if they lose. I will upgrade them to 90%.

I will also upgrade both CAR and WAS to 70%, for the sake of argument. I'll keep us at 90%, though. If we need the game to make the wildcard (else this exercise is moot), we have to be able to beat that mailed-it-in team nine in ten.

That puts us at a little better than 50% make the playoffs, barring Chicago losing out.

I'd say worst-case scenario is about a 40% chance that we are playing for something next Sunday night. Oh, what a fun game it will be if we are. Isn't it great when you get an extra playoff game?

On Parcells, what is this crap about him contemplating retirement? I saw that that vacuous, idiotic, problematic excuse for a journalist Randy Galloway asked him something about it in the post-game. No bothers, though. Bill is sticking around, probably long enough to hand it over to Zimmer when he leaves. (If I know Jerry, that is.)

dirno2000 · 12-25-2005, 04:02 AM

Quote:

On Parcells, what is this crap about him contemplating retirement? I saw that that vacuous, idiotic, problematic excuse for a journalist Randy Galloway asked him something about it in the post-game. No bothers, though. Bill is sticking around, probably long enough to hand it over to Zimmer when he leaves. (If I know Jerry, that is.)

Mortenson is reporting it...it's on the front page of ESPN.com. Galloway was just asking since Bill won't have a mike in front of his face for the next couple of days. It may be relevant that although he shot the messenger he didn't deny the story.

Even before the story came out, I was doubting that Bill would return if we didn’t' make the playoffs. But with Julius showing that last year wasn't a fluke and Ware looking like the speed demon that we thought we drafted in April, he may reconsider.

u2sarajevo · 12-25-2005, 12:58 PM

Despite the win, which I was glad to have.... This is only my first experience with it in a personal way really but I HATE 2HB!!!!!!!

alby · 12-25-2005, 08:28 PM

imo, i would consider it a failure of a season if we miss the playoffs this year

#1MavsFan · 12-25-2005, 11:44 PM

Vikings lose, this helps our chances, right? Alby at the start of the season wouldn't you have hoped for 10 wins? :P

dirno2000 · 12-25-2005, 11:49 PM

Quote:

Vikings lose, this helps our chances, right?

The Vikings weren’t much of a threat to us unless they won out and Chi lost out. Then Minn would have won the division and the Bears would have had the conference record tie-breaker over us.

Basically we need Washington or Carolina to lose.

chumdawg · 12-26-2005, 01:42 AM

Mick says that TB holds the tiebreaker over us based on record against common foes. That's not what I got when I looked at it. Anyone else take a look?

Then again, TB is going to beat New Orleans. Our best chance appears to be Atlanta.

I like the fact that we will know by kickoff. If Caro or Washington loses--and actually, why am I saying Atlanta is our best chance? Washington has a lot of dog in them--it will be like a playoff game, so it will be extra-fun to watch.

Just211 · 12-26-2005, 08:08 AM

here's the breakdown from the DMN:

COWBOYS PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

The Cowboys will make the playoffs if they beat the Rams on Sunday and either the Panthers or Redskins lose.

If the Cowboys, Panthers and Redskins all win and the Giants and Buccaneers both lose, the final wild-card spot would be determined by the following tiebreaker between the Cowboys and Buccaneers (the teams would remain tied through the first three steps):

1. Head-to-head, if applicable.

2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.

3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.

4. Strength of victory.

5. Strength of schedule.

6. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.

7. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.

8. Best net points in conference games.

9. Best net points in all games.

10. Best net touchdowns in all games.

11. Coin toss.

Just211 · 12-26-2005, 08:23 AM

the way i figure it, we own the tiebreaker over the Bucs with strength of victory. If we win.

But as far as Points for and Against we outscored our oppotents by 27, TB by 12
as far as points in Just victories, we've outscored our oppotents by 75, TB by 70.
that's far as literal Strength of victory, If it means winning % of teams you beat, then you can't figure that until right before gametime, due to oppotents still playing

Just211 · 12-26-2005, 08:31 AM

alright, nevermind it goes by strength of the oppotents you beat

(Strength of victory means the combined winning percentage of all of the team’s beaten by the team in question. At the moment, the Bucs’ strength of victory is .447, as is New York’s while Dallas’ is .467. But it will be affected in Week 17 by the results of all of the teams that the Bucs, Giants and Cowboys have beaten.)

sike · 12-26-2005, 11:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dirno2000

Basically we need Washington or Carolina to lose.

if either on lose we are in right? What if both lose?

chumdawg · 12-26-2005, 12:09 PM

Cundiff is cut! Suisham back.

dude1394 · 12-26-2005, 06:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Murphy3

Well, if it turns out to be two blocked FG's today, not much you can put on Cundiff..

There actually is something kind of interesting about that last kick by cundiff. If he kicks it straight it's a sure block, right into the guys head, no two ways about it.

What I'm wondering about is could a kicker see that coming and push the ball a little bit to get it around the dude.

If so, then cundiff saved the game for them.

dude1394 · 12-26-2005, 06:37 PM

I also heard cundiff was cut. I think the kicking coach should be fired instead.

dirno2000 · 12-26-2005, 07:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sike

if either on lose we are in right? What if both lose?

Yes, if either of those teams lose and we win we're in. If they both lose Carolina would still be in.

dude1394 · 12-26-2005, 08:42 PM

Way to go rock!!

dude1394 · 12-26-2005, 08:42 PM

You bet devin, hit that and they'll start REALLY worrying about your drive.

Woops.. wrong forum. Heh...

Dooby · 12-29-2005, 09:36 AM

Handy chart
***********************
The Cowboys must win Sunday night to make the playoffs. But winning doesn't guarantee them a wild-card berth. The final-week scenarios that will determine if the Cowboys are in or out of an NFC wild-card spot.

Dal..NY..Was..TB..Car..In/Out..WC1..WC2
W...W...W.....W...W...Out...Car...Was
W...W...W.....W...L....In...Was...Dal
W...W...W.....L....L....In...Was...Dal
W...W...W.....L....W...Out...TB...Was
W...W...L......W...W...In...Car...Dal
W...W...L......W...L....In...DaL....Car
W...W...L......L....L....In...DaL....Car
W...W...L......L....W...In...Dal/TB*...Dal/TB*
W...L....W.....W...W...Out...Car...NYG
W...L....W.....W...L....In...NYG...Dal
W...L....W.....L....L....In...NYG...Dal
W...L....W.....L....W...In**...NY/TB...NY or Dal/TB**
W...L....L......W...W...In...Car...Dal
W...L....L......W...L....In...DaL....Car
W...L....L......L....L....In...DaL....Car
W...L....L......L....W...In...Dal/TB*...Dal/TB*

*Dallas currently has the edge in the strength-of-victory tiebreaker (.467 to .447) over Tampa Bay.

**With Dallas, Tampa and New York tied for the two wild-cards spots, the Cowboys need the Giants to beat Tampa Bay in the strength-of-victory tiebreaker for the fifth seed. Dallas would then get the sixth seed because it has the strength-of-victory tiebreaker over Tampa Bay. The Giants and Buccaneers currently are tied with a strength-of-victory rating of .447.
***********************************
I predict the Cowboys will have a chance to make it . . . and lose Sunday night.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

chumdawg · 12-29-2005, 04:06 PM

I did research earlier on the strength-of-victory tiebreaker. It might be tough for both the Giants and win this from Tampa Bay. Here are the relevant games for each (some games aren't relevant because they assume wins from CAR and WAS, since a loss from either makes the point moot).

Tampa Bay
strength of victory 70-85 with five games in play:
MIN vs CHI
BUF vs NYJ
GB vs SEA
MIA vs NE
DET vs PIT

New York
strength of victory 70-86 with games in play:
DEN vs SD
ARI vs IND
SF vs HOU
KC vs CIN

Dallas
strength of victory 69-86 with games in play:
SD vs DEN
DET vs PIT
ARI vs IND
SF vs HOU
KC vs CIN

The first teams mentioned are the ones that the respective teams "own" in the strength of victory. If they win they raise the team's SOV, if they lose they lower it.

The Cowboys and Giants both own ARI, SF, and KC.
The Cowboys and the Bucs both own DET.
The Cowboys and Giants have opposite sides of the DEN/SD game.

Basically, I think it would be tough to take this tiebreaker from TB.